So here was my prediction for 2008:
I've got to wait on final results before I can really determine how good or bad my point spreads ended up, but on the electoral map, I flubbed Georgia, Missouri (probably), and the Omaha EV in Nebraska. So assuming Missouri falls to McCain as expected, I'll be off 25 electoral votes. Not great, but not horrible. And none of my picks were so out of the realm of possibilities as to be considered "ridiculous". Indeed, my biggest miss -- Georgia -- was just a five-point loss (and maybe less once all the final early ballots are counted).
Then there's über-wanker Dick Morris' map:
The wingnuts at Human Events call Morris a "political analyst extraordinaire". Yet:
- He thought Arkansas was lean Obama. McCain won it by 20 points. Not a single poll ever showed the state competitive.
- He thought Louisiana was a tossup. Obama lost it by 19 points. Again, except for one suspect poll late in the game, no other polling showed the state competitive.
- Tennessee as a tossup? In whose feverish mind? McCain won it by 17 points, and that was probably closer than many sane people expected.
- Kentucky was just "lean McCain"? I guess that's better than calling it Lean Obama or tossup, but at a 17-point loss, it was always a solid McCain state.
- In fact, of Morris' "tossup" states, only North Carolina really deserved that billing, and ended up a 50-50 split (with the narrowest of Obama advantages).Of the other four, three ended up double-digit McCain wins, and Arizona almost was at nine points.
- How was Indiana -- with reams of polling showing it neck and neck -- "lean McCain" when the likes of Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia were "tossups"?
- Morris blew Missouri (like me) and Indiana, but that's less interesting than their relative rankings compared to the likes of Tennessee and Arkansas. If you're going to have a "tossup" category (which is a cop out when making predictions), then you had to throw Missouri into it. No way it was "lean Obama" when your definition of "tossup" includes the likes of Tennessee and Louisiana. Same with Indiana.
Then again, since we're mocking bad prognosticators, there was one even worse than Dick Morris. The one put together by none other than Mr. Bill O'Reilly:
To think that in O'Reilly's mind, McCain was winning until the very, very end! Then again, no one is calling O'Reilly a "political analyst extraordinaire"...