The best thing about elections, if you like elections, is that the next one is always right around the corner.
We now have the first announced non-incumbent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010: Congressman Jerry Moran of Kansas, seeking the open seat held by the retiring Sam Brownback.
With the 2008 election season over, Rep. Jerry Moran wasted little time taking the next step in his likely bid for higher office.
The western Kansas Republican filed paperwork Friday that allows him to accept contributions for a U.S. Senate campaign.
Moran, of Hays, has been telling constituents for months that he plans to seek the seat being vacated in 2010 by Republican Sam Brownback. His statement of candidacy filed with the Federal Election Commission and the secretary of the U.S. Senate formalizes that
Frankly, we probably have enough morans in the United States Senate as it is. Apparently, fellow Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt agrees, and is considering a run:
Moran may not be the only prominent Republican laying the groundwork for a Senate bid. Rep. Todd Tiahrt, of the Wichita area, has not ruled out such a campaign and has been traveling the state recently to raise his profile outside his south-central Kansas district.
Neither of these districts is exactly fertile territory for Democrats. Tiahrt was supposed to have faced a decent challenge from State Sen. Donald Betts this year, but wound up beating him severely. That's an R+12 district, which is nothing compared to the Moran's district (at R+20, it's the middle of the political desert for Democrats).
Conceivably a Democrat with the right conservative profile might be able to run fairly strong in KS-04 (Tiahrt's district), but I wouldn't bet on it.
Can either Moran or Tiahrt be beaten in a Senate race? There's one Democrat who can win: term-limited Governor Kathleen Sebelius. If she isn't appointed to a position within the Obama administration, the two-term Democratic governor would be a formidable candidate for the open Senate seat (and if she wins, the first Democratic Senator from Kansas in John McCain's lifetime).
If she opts against the race, however, winning the Senate seat looks very tough. The biggest second-tier names are Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson (a former chair of the state GOP turned Democratic officeholder), Attorney General Stephen Six, and Rep. Nancy Boyda (who was defeated for reelection in 2008).
However, Parkinson likely has his eye on the vacant governorship (if anything at all), while Six, who was appointed to the position of AG, needs to expand his profile statewide. Boyda, for her part, would probably be best served by running for her old seat again (assuming she wants to run for anything). She'd have a decent shot at it, especially if Rep.-elect Lynn Jenkins runs for Governor (leaving an open seat).
So as far as the Senate seat goes, it's likely Sebelius or bust. The open seats of Moran and potentially Tiahrt aren't very promising at all, though you never know. That leaves the governorship, which is rather a big mystery to out-of-staters at the moment.
The next year should be full of speculation about this seat, and several other potentially competitive Senate races for the next cycle.