Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/11-13. Likely voters. MoE 4% (6/30-7/2 results)
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?
Approve 36 (45)
Disapprove 61 (43)
If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you to reelect Joe Lieberman would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Lieberman?
Reelect 35
Consider Someone Else 18
Replace 48
Brutal. It seems that the people of Connecticut don't like the Republican version of Lieberman, the one that trashed Democrats on the campaign trail with John McCain, the one that spoke at the RNC convention, the one that failed to hold the Bush Administration accountable in Congress, and the one that pretended Katrina never happened.
He's already in trouble with his constituents. But look what happens if Lieberman follows through on his threats and caucuses with Republicans:
If Joe Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship at Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and switches his allegiance to the Republican Party would you that make you more likely reelect Lieberman more likely to consider voting for another candidate or more likely to vote to replace Lieberman?
Reelect 31
Consider Someone Else 15
Replace 52
And those numbers look a lot worse with Democrats and Independents, since they are propped up by happy Republicans. (Full crosstabs below the fold.)
So Lieberman can threaten all he wants to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get everything he wants. Fact is, he's in shaky electoral territory, and it would only get worse if he decided to become a Republican.
Call his bluff. Give him another committee chairmanship in an area where his ideology matches up with the Democratic Party. He won't leave the Democratic caucus. It would be career suicide.
No one likes Joe except for Republicans, yet there are the Senate Dems, once again ready to capitulate. Apparently, old habits die hard.
But maybe they'll prove us wrong and do the right thing.
Update: Oh, and the people of Connecticut are still suffering buyer's remorse:
If you could vote again for U.S. Senate would you vote for Ned Lamont theDemocrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?
Lieberman (I) 34 (36)
Lamont (D) 59 (51)
Schlesinger (R) 3 (7)
CONNECTICUT POLL RESULTS – NOVEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from November 11 through November 13, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURE:
Men 282 (47%)
Women 318 (53%)
Democrats 251 (42%)
Republicans 115 (19%)
Independents/Other 234 (39%)
18-29 114 (19%)
30-44 204 (34%)
45-59 174 (29%)
60+ 108 (18%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Lieberman? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not)
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 7% 28% 36% 27% 2%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 35% 63% 2%
MEN 40% 59% 1%
WOMEN 30% 67% 3%
DEMOCRATS 21% 77% 2%
REPUBLICANS 67% 29% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 65% 1%
18-29 31% 66% 3%
30-44 35% 64% 1%
45-59 36% 61% 3%
60+ 39% 59% 2%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 36% 61% 3%
MEN 41% 57% 2%
WOMEN 31% 65% 4%
DEMOCRATS 22% 76% 2%
REPUBLICANS 69% 27% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 61% 4%
18-29 32% 65% 3%
30-44 36% 62% 2%
45-59 36% 59% 5%
60+ 41% 56% 3%
QUESTION: If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you to reelect Joe Lieberman would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Lieberman?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 35% 14% 48% 3%
MEN 39% 18% 41% 2%
WOMEN 31% 10% 55% 4%
DEMOCRATS 20% 11% 67% 2%
REPUBLICANS 68% 17% 10% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 15% 46% 4%
18-29 31% 12% 55% 2%
30-44 35% 14% 49% 2%
45-59 35% 15% 46% 4%
60+ 40% 16% 42% 2%
QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate Ned Lamont the Democrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?
LIEBERMAN LAMONT SCHLESINGER
ALL 49% 41% 10%
MEN 53% 38% 9%
WOMEN 45% 44% 11%
DEMOCRATS 35% 61% 4%
REPUBLICANS 77% 6% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 50% 37% 13%
18-29 40% 51% 9%
30-44 45% 46% 9%
45-59 54% 35% 11%
60+ 57% 32% 11%
QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate would you vote for Ned Lamont theDemocrat Alan Schlesinger the Republican or Joe Lieberman an Independent?
LAMONT LIEBERMAN SCHLESINGER NOT SURE
ALL 59% 34% 3% 4%
MEN 53% 41% 3% 3%
WOMEN 65% 27% 3% 5%
DEMOCRATS 82% 17% 1% -
REPUBLICANS 6% 73% 9% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 61% 33% 2% 4%
18-29 69% 21% 1% 9%
30-44 64% 29% 3% 4%
45-59 51% 42% 4% 3%
60+ 50% 44% 4% 2%
QUESTION: If Joe Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship at Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and switches his allegiance to the Republican Party would you that make you more likely reelect Lieberman more likely to consider voting for another candidate or more likely to vote to replace Lieberman?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 31% 15% 52% 2%
MEN 36% 19% 44% 1%
WOMEN 28% 11% 58% 3%
DEMOCRATS 14% 14% 71% 1%
REPUBLICANS 71% 14% 9% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 29% 17% 53% 1%
18-29 27% 13% 59% 1%
30-44 31% 15% 53% 1%
45-59 31% 16% 50% 3%
60+ 35% 17% 45% 3%