With the 2008 election over we Democrats have (at least pending MN & GA) seven new members for the Senate (I’m already counting the Alaska race as a Democratic pickup):
Mark Udall (D-CO)
Tom Udall (D-NM)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
Jean Shaheen (D-NH)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Mark Begich (D-AK)
I discount Minnesota and Georgia because those races are still not decided and will not be decided when the committee assignments are handed out next week.
Also a new senator from Illinois will be joining the Senate as President-elect Barack Obama resigned his Senate seat effective November 16, 2008. Question is whether the identity of this newly appointed senator will already be known by the time the committee assignments are handed out (my guess: no) or whether (s)he’ll just take over Obama’s current committee assignments (Foreign Relations; Health, Education, Labor and Pensions; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Veterans' Affairs).
Vice-President-elect Joe Biden (Chair Foreign Relations, Chair International Narcotics Control Caucus, Judiciary) will most likely only resign after the 111th Congress has started as he was just elected to a seventh term. If he resigns now, that’ll mean Gov. Minner can only appoint a senator for the remainder of his current term. Meaning the process needs to be done over come January.
Thus new Senate committee assignments need to be handed out. These will be handled during next week’s Democratic caucus meeting.
Both parties will hold leadership elections November 18 as the 110th Congress meets for a lame-duck session. The Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee could meet the same day to recommend chairmen and committee assignments for the next Congress, and the full party caucus would vote on those recommendations.
With their enlarged Senate majority, Democrats will gain an expanded edge on most committees, enhancing their ability to advance President-elect Barack Obama's priorities. Party ratios for Senate committees are subject to negotiations between the majority and minority. The Democrats' current one-seat edge is likely to grow to two at a minimum.
Democrats will probably look at the 102th and 103rd Congress as a precedent for the distribution ratio. Given that precedent, a majority of 58-42 means (still counting Lieberman as part of that caucus for arguments sake) that the Democrats will have 58% of the seats on every committee. For example, Judiciary has 19 seats, and they would be apportioned 11 Dem, 8 GOP. The GOP will lose two seats there, and on almost EVERY other committee.
On the powerful Appropriations Committee – the largest committee in the US Senate – the Democrats will probably hold a 17-12 majority with the GOP losing FOUR seats altogether.
Of course, some of the changes will occur naturally, as those GOP senators that lost (Dole, Smith, Stevens, Sununu) or retired (Allard, Craig, Domenici, Hagel, Warner) will automatically lose their seats.
The Senate must adopt a resolution to formalize the negotiated division of committee funding and seats before panels can function. That vote typically occurs in January. The Select Ethics Committee is always evenly divided, and the majority holds just a one-seat edge on Select Intelligence.
Who of our new senators would you assign to which committee?
In general each Senator serves on two to three committees.
The following committees are currently employed (in brackets I have added the current chairman but chairmanships may change for the 111th Congress):
Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry (Tom Harkin, D-IA)
Appropriations (Robert Byrd, D-WV)
Armed Services (Carl Levin, D-MI)
Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs (Chris Dodd, D-CT)
Budget (Kent Conrad, D-ND)
Commerce, Science and Transportation (Daniel Inouye, D-HI)
Energy and Natural Resources (Jeff Bingaman, D-NM)
Environment and Public Works (Barbara Boxer, D-CA)
Finance (Max Baucus, D-MT)
Foreign Relations (Joseph R. Biden, D-DE)
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (Edward M. Kennedy, D-MA)
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (Joseph Lieberman, ID-CT)
Indian Affairs (Byron Dorgan, D-ND)
Judiciary (Patrick Leahy, D-VT)
Rules and Administration (Dianne Feinstein, D-CA)
Small Business and Entrepreneurship (John F. Kerry, D-MA)
Veterans' Affairs (Daniel Akaka, D-HI)
Select Committee on Ethics (Tim Johnson, D-SD)
Select Committee on Intelligence (Jay Rockefeller, D-WV)
Special Committee on Aging (Herb Kohl, D-WI)
International Narcotics Control Caucus (Joseph Biden, D-DE)
Take note, the chance that a Senate freshman will get a plum seat on the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations is quasi nihil. Given the importance of thios committee those are seats typically fought over and won by the more senior members of the caucus.
As to Chairmanships... a game of musicial chairs is about to occur. These chairs will also be decided at the meeting next week. With 90-year-old Robert C. Byrd (D-WV) departure as chairman of the Appropriations Committee a cascade of changes will be set of elsewhere with Senators exchanging their current chairmanships for chair of a more "senior" committee. The election of Foreign Relations Chairman Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE), as vice president will prompt some gavel changes, and more will occur if Democrats strip Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT), of his chairmanship of Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Agriculture: Tom Harkin (D-IA) will most likely remain chair.
Appropriations: Byrd (D-WV) has announced he’ll no longer seek the chairmanship. Look for Daniel Inouye (84, D-HI) to exchenge Commerce, Science and Transportation for this committee.
Armed Services: Carl Levin (D-MI) will most likeley remain chair
Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs: Chris Dodd (D-CT) has announced he wants to remain chairing this committee.
Budget: Kent Conrad (D-ND) will most likely remain chair
Commerce, Science and Transportation: Inouye will be moving up to Appropriations. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-WV), will probably relinquish his gavel at Select Intelligence to take over at Commerce.
Energy and Natural Resources: Look for Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) to remain chair.
Environment and Public Works: Look for Barbara Boxer (D-CA) to remain at the helm
Ethics: Tim Johnson (D-SD) chaired this committee. After his brain hemorrhage Barbara Boxer took over, next in line is Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Finance: look for Max Baucus (D-MT) to remain in charge
Foreign Relations: Joe Biden will become Vice-President, thus relinquishing this chair. Christopher J. Dodd (D-CT) is next in line, but he has said he will keep his gavel at the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, which is poised to overhaul the nation’s financial regulatory system. John Kerry (D-MA) is next in line at Foreign Relations after Dodd. Behind Kerry, who has been mentioned as a possible secretary of State in the Obama administration, is anti-war liberal Democrat Russ Feingold (D-WI). If Kerry doesn’t get State, look for him to exchange his chairmanship of Small Businesses for Foreign Relations. In the event that Kerry gets a cabinet position, Harry Reid has announced that the order of seniority will be followed, giving Feingold a shot at chair.
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions: Although Chairman Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA) is battling brain cancer, aides insist that he plans to return to the Senate in January.
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: the big what if. Lieberman (ID-CT) currently chairs this committee and wants to keep the gavel. If Democrats rightly strip him of his chair than next in line is Carl Levin – who’ll remain at Armed Services – and Daniel Akaka (D-HI) – who has hinted he wants to stay on Veteran’s Affairs. After Akaka next in line is Tom Carper (D-DE)
Indian Affairs: look for Byron Dorgan (D-ND) to keep the gavel
Intelligence: Either Rockefeller takes over Commerce or he’ll stay. In the former event, next in line is Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), currently Chair of Rules and Administration.
Judiciary: look for Vermont’s wonderful Pat Leahy (D-VT) to remain chair.
Rules and administration: if Sen. Feinstein moves over to Intelligence, next in line is Charles Schumer (D-NY)
Small Business and Entrepreneurship: will likeley get a new chair with current chair John F. Kerry (D-MA) either appointed to the cabinet or becoming chair of Foreign Relations. In that case Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is next in line.
Special Aging: Herb Kohl (D-WI) retains the chair
Veteran’s Affairs: Akaka is rumoured to prefer to stay at the helm, if he decides to take over Homeland Security fromLieberman, then next in line is Patty Murray (D-WA)