Crossposted from The Field.
While pundits speculate on Obama's choice for Secretary of State (and there's some considerable backpedaling going on from yesterday's media fart) here's something for all sides to chew on... some hard historical data on how long they last.
President George W. Bush began in 2001 with high profile and popular Secretary of State in Colin Powell... who in in the beginning of Bush's second term in 2005 was replaced by Condoleezza Rice.
President Bill Clinton began in 1993 with an experienced State Department hand in Warren Christopher (who had twice briefly served in as acting secretary under President Carter)... who at the beginning of Clinton's second term was replaced by Madeleine Albright.
Continue reading about their fates at the jump...
President George H. W. Bush served only one term beginning in 1989 and his good buddy James Baker lasted most of until August of 1992 (during the unsuccessful reelection campaign). Lawrence Eagleberger replaced him.
President Ronald Reagan began his term in 1981 with former presidential campaign rival Alexander Haig as Secretary of State. But after 18 months Haig realized that his wish for Kissinger-like powers (his mentor and predecessor had basically run foreign policy during President Nixon's weakest years and during President Ford's caretaker presidency) was not-to-be and Haig resigned in disgust. He was replaced by George Schultz.
President Jimmy Carter began his term in 1977 nominating Cyrus Vance as Secretary of State. Three years into the term Senator Edmund Muskie replaced him.
President Gerald Ford inherited Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State from President Nixon in 1974, but only served two years as president.
President Richard Nixon began his term in 1969 with William Rogers as Secretary of State. Nine months into his second term - too embattled to govern - Nixon replaced him with Henry Kissinger and essentially let him run US foreign policy.
Secretary of State Dean Rusk was the last Secretary of State to survive two terms (and two presidents: Kennedy and Johnson, from 1961 to 1969). However, his legacy is disgraced by his role in the Vietnam War.
President Dwight Eisenhower appointed John Foster Dulles as Secretary of State in 1953. Dulles lasted six years and then was replaced by Christian Herter.
President Harry Truman had three Secretaries of State over eight years, from 1945 to 1953. President Franklin Roosevelt had two over 13 years, so on and so forth...
I'll add that the only one of them that had a clue about human rights was Cyrus Vance, who, years prior, as undersecretary of defense had urged President Johnson to pull US troops out of Vietnam.
So what'll it be Mr. President-elect? A Vance? Or a Haig?