As I watch the penultimate vote on MEDICARE, the budget waiver, I am impressed by the vote switching and by what amounts to 3 distinct patterns of voting.
There are the liberal Democrats, the conservative Republicans and a small band of (for want of a better description) McCainites. This last group tends to oppose pork barrel spending and big government. The Perot and Ventura voters align with McCain. The other groups are highly ideological and political.
MEDICARE is now likely EITHER to be a big issue in the 2004 election, or an insignificant non-issue. However it is played, I believe the votes cast show how the Presidential elections starts.
Note: As I write, the Waiver was passed 61-39, and I take that as the odds for Bush winning.
STATES FOR BUSH - 188 ELECTORS
AK, ME, NH, VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, KY, TN, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, ND, SD
LEANING TO BUSH - 67 ELECTORS
OH, IN, WV, MO, NE, NV, AZ
REPUBLICAN TOTAL: 255 ELECTORS
STATES FOR DEMOCRAT - 134 ELECTORS
HI, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, MI, WI
LEANING DEMOCRAT - 81 ELECTORS
CA, OR, WA, NM, VT
DEMOCRAT TOTAL: 215 ELECTORS
CONTESTABLE STATES:
FL, PA, MN, IA
CONTESTABLE TOTAL: 70 ELECTORS
What this means is this election is Bush's to lose. At this point, Democrats barely have a possible electoral majority.