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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Reid (D) 46
Porter (R) 40

Those are anemic numbers for someone of Reid's stature, especially when matched up against a Republican who lost his House seat this past election day. Looking further into the internals of this poll, it's quite clear why Reid is well below the 50 percent "safe" mark:

Approval/Disapproval ratings

Reid: 38/54
Porter: 40/39

Those are ugly numbers. And among independents, it's 31/60, so it's not as if Reid's constant capitulations to Republicans and Lieberman are earning him any brownie points with independents. They hold him with as much contempt as, well, we do. And check out Reid's re-elects. Ouch.

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote to reelect Harry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Reid?

Reelect: 32%
Consider: 23%
Replace: 41%

Even among Democrats, his reelects suck: (MoE 5%)

Reelect: 44%
Consider: 31%
Replace: 19%

When you can't even get 50 percent of your own party to root for your reelection, you've got serious problems at home. And 42 percent of independents want Reid replaced, so it's not as if he's getting better support anywhere else. Still, these aren't numbers that give much of an opening to a viable primary challenge, so it's pretty likely we're stuck with Reid heading into the general election.

This race will clearly be a marquee 2010 battle. It may very well be the only serious pickup opportunity for Republicans. So we'll have a majority leader who is under serious electoral pressure at home, who is deeply unliked by his own constituents, leading our Senate caucus. If you think the cautious and ineffective Reid of the past two years was bad, we may be in store for much worse in the coming year.

It's time Reid seriously consider resigning his leadership post so he can focus full-time on winning reelection. The state's changing demographics and the thousands of newly registered voters (thanks to Obama) are likely Reid's salvation, but if he continues his half-assed leadership efforts, that won't do either him, nor the Democratic caucus any favors.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

The Research 2000 Nevada Poll was conducted from November 23 through November 25, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.


Men                  288 (48%)
Women                312 (52%)

Democrats            264 (44%)
Republicans          228 (38%)
Independents         108 (18%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                192 (32%)
45-59                180 (30%)
60+                  120 (20%)

Clark                397 interviews
Washoe               127 interviews
Other                 76 interviews


QUESTION: If there was a primary challenge to Harry Reid in 2010 would you to reelectHarry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replaceReid?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE     NOT SURE        

ALL                 44%         31%         19%          6%

MEN                 46%         35%         15%          4%
WOMEN               42%         27%         23%          8%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Harry Reid? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 17%         21%         28%         26%          8%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 38%         54%          8%

MEN                 36%         57%          7%
WOMEN               40%         51%          9%

DEMOCRATS           59%         33%          8%
REPUBLICANS         17%         76%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        31%         60%          9%

18-29               39%         52%          9%
30-44               39%         53%          8%
45-59               38%         55%          7%
60+                 37%         55%          8%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Porter? (If favorableor unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         30%         30%          9%         21%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 40%         39%         21%

MEN                 44%         37%         19%
WOMEN               36%         41%         23%

DEMOCRATS           16%         63%         21%
REPUBLICANS         69%         12%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        37%         39%         24%

18-29               36%         42%         22%
30-44               40%         40%         20%
45-59               41%         38%         21%
60+                 42%         37%         21%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. Senator? (If approve or disapprove ask if it is strongly or not):

                   STRG                                STRG
                   APP         APP         DISAPP      DISAPP    NOT SURE

ALL                 16%         23%         30%         27%          4%

                   APPROVE     DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE        

ALL                 39%         57%          4%

MEN                 37%         61%          2%
WOMEN               41%         53%          6%

DEMOCRATS           63%         34%          3%
REPUBLICANS         15%         81%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        32%         63%          5%

18-29               41%         54%          5%
30-44               39%         56%          5%
45-59               39%         58%          3%
60+                 37%         60%          3%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you to reelect Harry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Reid?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE     NOT SURE

ALL                 32%         23%         41%          4%

MEN                 29%         22%         46%          3%
WOMEN               35%         24%         36%          5%

DEMOCRATS           52%         21%         21%          6%
REPUBLICANS         10%         24%         63%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        30%         25%         42%          3%

18-29               35%         25%         34%          6%
30-44               33%         24%         38%          5%
45-59               30%         22%         45%          3%
60+                 30%         21%         47%          2%

QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Harry Reid the Democrat and Jon Porter
the Republican?

                   REID        PORTER      UNDECIDED

ALL                 46%         40%         14%

MEN                 43%         44%         13%
WOMEN               49%         36%         15%

DEMOCRATS           80%          9%         11%
REPUBLICANS          7%         77%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         38%         17%

18-29               48%         37%         15%
30-44               47%         39%         14%
45-59               46%         40%         14%
60+                 43%         44%         13%

CLARK               49%         37%         14%
WASHOE              43%         44%         13%
OTHER               36%         50%         14%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM PST.

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