This diary is intended for discussion of Obama's foreign policy philosophy particularly with Iran and Pakistan. I strongly disagree with those suggesting that an Obama foreign policy will be centrist or with characterizing his views as such. Iraq aside, the Bush-Clinton foreign policy era has been dominated by centrist do-nothing, don't ask-don't tell, support the two of the lesser evils governments that arises from extreme insecurity of middle class diplomats serving Presidents who have no innate understanding of the world.
Examples include, Clinton's refusal to talk to Khatami, to prevent Rwanda, to bomb Serbia, to prevent 9/11, to fail to significantly reign in North Korea and to do nothing against the rise of the Taliban. Examples of the painful Bush centre-right philosophy include the treatment of Musharraf and the do nothing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Bush Administration's center-right "don't ask-don't tell" Pakistan policy of Musharaff appeasement lasted 6 years. Of course there some strong neo-con tendencies have been evident but they are besides the point of this diary.
The idea that Obama ran as a centrist on foreign policy is simply inaccurate.
Obama's overarching theme in foreign affairs is to give adversaries reasons to like the US in stark contrast to what has been happening the last 8 and if I may says so the last 12 years. That is the truly progressive-pragmatist philosophy which will direct the next 8 years of foreign policy. Obama has clearly advocated of giving foreign governments including Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and Pakistan more carrots than sticks. With respect to Iran's nuclear ambitions, one should hope to a possible election of Khatami as president and to the new generation of Iranians who may seek change even if it requires conflict from the mullahs. This cannot come from centrist clandestine subversion but from the Iranian people themselves.
That's not centrist policy. Centrist policy of the Holbrooke/Albright/Bill Clinton style refused to directly talk to Khatami and was ineffective in dealing with Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea. Clinton's policies east of Iraq had been a centrist failure.
The largest problem Obama will need to deal with is Pakistan which seems to be leaning to irreversible chaos. In a half-hearted effort the Bush administration naively promoted Benazir Bhutto and urged her to run for president. We all know how this backfired showing the extent of the collapse of the rule of law in Pakistan.
Obama will need to coordinate with the Indians and the Chinese to rescue Pakistan from the brink of collapse. He will have to push decidedly progressive policies of cooperation and will need to invest in a new Marshall project in the region. Losing Pakistan would not only mean that nuclear warheads could end up anywhere but that Afghanistan would be lost and the brutal Taliban would dominate the region once more.
I strongly believe that Obama's primary interest is foreign policy. His understanding of the world is encouraging and will be very unlike what DC accepts as "the norm". Obama may be an American but he realizes what it is like to be a citizen of the world. He realizes that citizens from Pakistan to Iran want more cooperation and less special interests running their government. He realizes he cannot give ammunition to haters. It will be interesting to see if he is strong enough to impose his vision to a city that is scared and unaware of what's going on in the rest of the world.
What do you think Obama's foreign policy will be like?