Here is an update on the Mumbai terrorist attacks. 150 dead, including 8 foreiners and some 10 policemen.
Nariman House : Nariman House cleared.
Taj : Fire fight still on in one floor.
Oberai Trident : Completely cleared of terrorists.
Update :
India's external Affairs minister (like Sec. of state here) warns of "costs" if Pakistan doesn't take any action.
India will take up "strongly with our neighbours that the use of their territory for launching attacks on us will not be tolerated, and that there would be a cost if suitable measures are not taken by them."
If anyone thinks, this is like earlier attacks and would just pass with no cost to Pakistan - think again.
Here is a primer on Pakistan and Terrorism : Gen Musharraf, Welcome to Hell
Known information below.
Information is mainly from
TOI : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
HT : http://www.hindustantimes.com/...
Rediff : http://www.rediff.com/
Rediff Continous Blog : http://www.rediff.com/...
Asian Age : http://www.asianage.com/...
Deccan Herald : http://www.deccanherald.com/...
Hindu : http://www.hinduonnet.com/
NDTV live : http://www.ndtv.com/...
PTI (India's eq. to AP) : http://www.ptinews.com/
Is it too early ?
Some commenters are saying it is too early to pin any blame etc.
There are several pieces of information that make most of the basic information "established facts" in this case.
* The vessel used by Terrorists have been recovered. Along with satellite phones etc.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...
http://www.hindu.com/...
The vessel, Kuber, was found drifting 5-6 nautical miles off the Mumbai shore; the entire crew is missing except for the group leader, Amar Narayan, 38, whose body was found on board with limbs tied, blindfolded and neck slit open.
* Three Lashkar fidayeen captured. Their interrogation has yielded quite a bit of information.
http://www.hindu.com/...
So, it looks like while details may change going forward the basic contours of the attack and perpetrators is fairly certain at this point.
* There are only a limited set of actor who can plan and mount such an attack - once you figure in the possible motivation. Remember these were suicide attacks with the only aim to kill and then be killed. This is a good place to start ...
http://www.newsweek.com/...
Intelligence sources are saying the attacks bear the hallmarks of an international conspiracy. Do you read that as a precursor to claims that Al Qaeda or Pakistani intelligence may be involved in these attacks?
It would be one or other. I don't know if it would be Al Qaeda per se. But it could be Al Qaeda-related groups, certainly. Even Lashkar-e-Toiba is under the umbrella of Al Qaeda. All these groups we are speaking of as suspects are in some sense linked historically to Al Qaeda. All these groups are also linked to the Pakistan intelligence establishment. So we don't see the possibility of an operation of this scale being mounted without the backing of groups that either currently or historically have links with Al Qaeda or Pakistan intelligence.
Who were they ?
Looks like most of the terrorists came from Pakistan. They are said to belong to LeT (Lushkar - e - Taiba) an old terrorist outfit that has been involved in high profile terrorist attacks on India in the past. Some experts are saying direct Al Qaida involvement is likely. The name of Deccan Mujahideen is a red herring - as none of the terrorists speak with a southern accent - they speak with a Punjabi Accent.
There were certainly some local accomplices. Some others are beleived to be British citizens.
The captured terrorists are from Firodkot near Multan in Punjab (Pakistan). They were highly trained and belong to the "suidcide" group of LeT.
Update : There are some comments - using abusive language no less - saying this is "speculation". I guess Pakistan agreed to send ISI chief to check out the speculation. BTW, Scotland yard is sending people over to check out the British angle.
http://www.deccanherald.com/...
"According to preliminary information, some elements in Pakistan are responsible for Mumbai terror attacks," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters here.
Here is some more of my "speculation". Looks like Pakistan president Zardari doesn't think this is speculation.
http://www.hindu.com/...
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani that investigators had found involvement of Pakistan-based elements in the attacks in the commercial capital.
He told Gilani that Pakistan should send its ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha to New Delhi "to cooperate in the investigations of the Mumbai attack and for sharing certain information".
....
During the telephonic conversation with Singh, Zardari assured him that Islamabad "will cooperate with India in exposing and apprehending the culprits and masterminds behind" the attacks in Mumbai.
How did they come ?
Terrorists boarded a commercial Vietnamese ship from Karachi. Once they were close by they took small boats to enter Mumbai.
Planned Operation
Looks like the attack was meticolosly planned. They knew the layout of the hotels well. They may have booked hotels and had a "control room" in each of the hotels. Millions of dollars seem to have been spent on the operation. Some report Saudi finance behind the operation.
update :
Experts are surprised at the length and firepower of the attacks in the hotels. They think a large amount of ammunition was stockpiled by terrorists who had booked rooms in the hotels in a rotation mechanism.
http://www.asianage.com/...
Goal
LeT operations are garnered to get maximum attention. They also seem to operate when India-Pakistan peace talks seem to be near. Though ostensibly they fight for Kashmir, they are not Kashmiris - mostly Punjabi.
Pakistan in a pickle
Pakistan has long given "moral support" to "militants". In reality they have trained, recruited, financed and nurtured terrorism in an effort to wage a low intensity war on India - specifically on the Kashmir issue.
Recently the new president Zardari had made noises about the new reality of needing to put the past behind and settling the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan go two ways now - either continue the wink-wink policy towards terrorism or actually go after the perpetrators of this crime and their sponsors and extradite them to India (not a single Terrorist has ever been extradited in the last two decades).
I think the IMF loan granted recently should be suspended until Pakistan acts like a grwon up now.
ISI
ISI, Pakistan's Initelligence outfit, has a lot to explain. They created and supported LeT for a long time. Currently it is not clear whether LeT did this on their own or had ISI blessing. Indian prime minister has requested Pakistani Prime Minister to send ISI chief to India to help in investigation and ISI chief is said to be on his way.
PS : Yesterday I was watching CNN. Reminded me why I don't watch it. There was rampant speculation - including how this was an "inside" operation and how India is suddenly now like Afghanistan / Pakistan. The "experts" obviously knew less than illiterate rickshaw-wallas of Mumbai.
Indian Govt Reaction
Several statements by Prime Minister and Pranab Mukherjee the External Affairs minister sound ominous.
http://www.hindu.com/...
The External Affairs Minister said while the government of Pakistan has said that it wants a leap forward in relations between the two countries, "outrages like the attack on our Embassy in Kabul and now the attack on Mumbai are intended to make it impossible."
Answers to some Comments / questions :
a. Is it common for LeT to deny and condemn their own attacks?
It is uncommon for anyone to claim responsibility for the attack. Condemning the attack by LeT is a bit like Arafat condemning terror attacks on Israel by his own militia.
b. This is a Pakistan bashing dairy.
Sorry for dragging the "fiar name" of Pakistan into this. May be if they had not given "moral" support to all the "freedom fighters" all these years we wouldn't have been here.
BTW, I've not implicated Pakistan Govt in this, as you can see. I've even given a pass to ISI. But there is no doubt that the terrorists came from Pakistan and were based there. I don't think Zardari's govt was aware of this attack - but the question is will they now go after the infrastructure that supports such attacks. Do they have the moral / political courage ?
c. We need to stay out of it
No way. US is the major sponsor of Pakistan - with lots of money and arms. We should use the diplomatic and financial clout with Pakistan to get rid off the terror infrastructure there.
Remember this very - does not concern me - got us in to trouble. Moreover - this is about whether you really beleive in combating teror where ever it is. Not just in US / Europe or when it hurts Americans.
Infact, though it would be very unpopular to say this here - US is partly to blame for all this mess. Starting with Afghan war where a generation of impressionable poor kids were indoctrinated into hateful religious rhetoric - to turning a blind eye to Pakistan's support of terrorism to turning a blind eye to China's help to Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons. Its a complex world and actions have unintended consequences.
And it is a very cynical view. After we want everyone to help us combat terrorism - and we want to stay out of it even when it is so closely related to our actions ?
I'll do a separate dairy on how Indian polity has failed to curb terrorism and in some cases fanned its flames.
d. There is too much speculation here
Not by me. All the things written here have been reported - in multiple places. Is it possible the reports are wrong - I guess it is possible.
For eg.
Terrorists boarded a commercial Vietnamese ship from Karachi.
This is an established fact?
a. http://www.hindustantimes.com/...
b. http://www.hindu.com/...
e. But BBC reports Indian govt does not know ....
http://www.deccanherald.com/...
"According to preliminary information, some elements in Pakistan are responsible for Mumbai terror attacks," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters here.
Ext Affairs minister is the equivalent of Sec. of state.