I have long had some degree of fascination with Canadian politics. Mostly it's because the wingnut element wouldn't even get to first base up there. From what I understand, a Tom DeLay or Newt Gingrich would have never been anything other than a backbencher in Canada.
With this in mind, in light of the incredible news that Stephen Harper will likely be thrown out of office next week, I thought I'd provide a primer on what will more than likely happen, for those of us who aren't that well versed in how they do things north of the border.
In Canada, governments can be thrown out of office on either straight motions of no confidence or if the government loses a major budget vote. The Liberals and NDP have both scenarios covered. They had a resolution ready to go for today that stated Harper had his head in the sand regarding the economic situation and had therefore lost the confidence of Parliament. Also, the Liberals had tabled a ways and means motion related to the government's fiscal update. If Harper's Conservatives were to lose either one, his government would go down. Both would have been introduced today, but Harper apparently knew he was cooked and delayed it until next week. However, in hindsight it looks like an egregious strategic blunder, as it gave the Liberals and NDP time to solidify the broad lines for a potential coalition government.
So short of a miracle, this is how things will likely unfold on Monday. Liberal leader Stephane Dion, as Leader of the Opposition, will move the no-confidence motion. NDP leader Jack Layton will second the motion. If it passes, Harper will have to inform Governor-General Michaëlle Jean that he has lost the confidence of Parliament.
Normally, this would lead to a new election. However, Dion has already informed Jean that he has enough support in the House to form a new government. He has a strong argument--given the economic crisis, it wouldn't be in the country's best interest to force another election after only three months. And there's precedent behind this as well--in Ontario in 1985, the Tories were toppled only three months after being reelected to a 13th consecutive term after the Liberals and NDP reached an agreement that resulted in a Liberal minority government. The only possible fly in the ointment could be the Bloc--but all reports are that it will give the Liberal-NDP coalition support in matters of general support and financial matters ("confidence and supply," as it's called in Canada).
With this in mind, it's more than likely that Jean will invite Dion to form a new government. The new government will include Layton and five other NDP ministers. Layton will be the number-two man in the government, even though he won't be deputy prime minister. In Canada, the deputy prime minister really doesn't have much power by himself--his only responsibility is to stand in for the prime minister in case s/he's out of the country. This agreement will last for 30 months, according to CBC--meaning there will definitely be an election sometime in 2011 at the latest.
That's a summary of what should happen north of the border on Monday. I figured Canada would come to its senses at some point after Obama won--just not this soon.