*** Update *** The Franken campaign has announced that their count indicates the candidate has pulled ahead by 22 votes -- leading for the first time since Election Day.
Of course, every count has a certain element of unreality, since there are over 6,000 challenged ballots not included in the current recount. The Star-Tribune's latest update indicates that Al Franken has gained 30 votes so far (***Update***) lost 13 votes, in today's count. If the Franken camp is right, the real total is for the day is a gain of about 33 votes. It should be said that the Franken announcement came before the latest update was released, which moved the count back 43 votes in Coleman's direction.
Where does that leave us? Well, Franken's camp stated yesterday afternoon that they believed Coleman's real lead at the time was down to 50 votes. This "FrankenMath" supposedly reflects the Franken camp's recordation of the initial rulings on challenged ballots. Thus, if all the initial rulings were upheld, the Coleman lead would have been down to 50 votes by noon yesterday, with 7% of the ballots not yet recounted.
Subsequent to that statement, Ramsey County announced that Franken had gained 37 votes from a box that contained 171 uncounted ballots. A machine had broken down on election day, so the ballots were not recorded then. They were put aside, but forgotten about. Though it's not 100% clear whether the Franken camp already included that number in their minus 50 pronouncement, the timing suggests otherwise. Based on that, posters yesterday were declaring that the gap had closed to 13 votes. However, when the final numbers for the day were posted, Franken had drawn another 2 votes closer.
When the counting began, the Star-Tribune count had Coleman holding a 303 vote lead. Just to refresh your memory: The Star-Tribune takes the Secretary of State's daily numbers, and compares them to the original totals for the precincts, prior to the recount. Based on that, the paper tallies up the changes to the original precinct counts. Because of the large number of challenges, in many precincts the candidates' totals have gone down, so the numbers do not tell the whole story. Still, in comparing the changed totals for recounted precincts, the paper had Coleman with a 303 vote lead.
With an update at 5:16 CST, the paper shows Franken trailing by only 273 votes. That's a gain of 30 votes in today's counting (of course, this doesn't account for the number of challenges). As noted above that has changed. The final update for the night gives Coleman a 316 vote lead, 13 ahead of where he started on the day.
So, where does that leave us? Based on the Franken campaign's assessment that they were trailing by 50 votes as of about noon yesterday, and adding in the 171 found ballots that gave Franken an additional 37 votes...and further adding an increase of 30 votes today a decrease of 13 votes today, that would mean that Franken now leads the count by 29 votes trails in the count by 24 votes.
Of course, it should be noted that this doesn't Of course we're mixing apples and oranges. As I attempt to sort through the two different sets of numbers, I have to note that the changes in the Star-Trib count don't include the ballots challenged in the last 30 hours. And, it assumes that the Franken campaign was giving an up-to-the minute precise count -- which is unlikely, since 50 votes sounds more like an approximation. That said, the Franken camp must be especially cheered right now. If they're correct in their assessment of the ballot challenges, Franken is ahead in the count now -(or within single digits, if the "50" number included the found 37 votes)-. The Franken camp says they're in the lead -- pending review of the challenges -- and I'm inclined to believe them.
*** UPDATE *** -- For real reportorial accuracy, it should be noted that the Franken campaign challenged 35 17 more ballots than Coleman today. That could account for the +30 change in Franken's direction. On the other hand, We don't know the nature of the challenges -- whether they're disputing votes that counted for Coleman, or possible Franken votes that were being rejected. Moreover, the Franken campaign has lodged a complaint about 133 ballots that may have been lost. The Franken camp believes (is guesstimating?) that this may have cost them 46 votes. Not sure where that number comes from, unless it's just that the precinct vote totals produced fewer votes and a smaller Franken margin -- 46 votes smaller. Presumably that change is already reflected in the Star-Tribune count, such that their projected Coleman lead might be smaller, if those votes are found.
It's equally unclear whether or not the Franken camp's projection of a 22 vote lead takes account of the net loss of 46 votes in Minneapolis. Looking from the outside in, the real story is that the numbers keep changing in ways that really make it impossible to know exactly where the race stands right now.
On the other hand, the Franken campaign thinks it's up by 22 votes!! The caveat to that would be that it assumes that 100% of the challenges will be rejected.
At the very least, it looks like the picture is improving for Franken with each day...and Al may actually be leading...