Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Salazar (D) 49
Elway (R) 38
Salazar (D) 51
Tancredo (R) 37
The "Elway" above is John Elway, former football megastar quarterback for the twice-winning Super Bowl Broncos. In Colorado, that's serious credentials. Even with all that, however, Elway runs only marginally better than unpopular über-wingnut Tom Tancredo in this poll.
The Colorado GOP bench is thin, and a lack of top-tier credible challenger means that Salazar, who isn't exactly the most popular senator ever (his 48-41 approval-disapproval rating is respectable, but nothing to boast about), may have a much easier time getting reelected than might otherwise have been the case.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
COLORADO POLL RESULTS
The Research 2000 Colorado Poll was conducted from December 2 through December 4, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES
Men 289 (48%)
Women 311 (52%)
Democrats 246 (41%)
Republicans 227 (38%)
Independents 127 (21%)
White 492 (82%)
Black 24 (4%)
Hispanic 78 (13%)
Other 6 (1%)
18-29 92 (15%)
30-44 191 (32%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 119 (20%)
Denver Metro 174 (29%)
Arapahoe/Jefferson 120 (20%)
West 114 (19%)
Rural/Rest of State 192 (32%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Salazar? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 34% 31% 10% 11%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 41% 11%
MEN 46% 44% 10%
WOMEN 50% 38% 12%
DEMOCRATS 65% 28% 7%
REPUBLICANS 33% 54% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 42% 14%
18-29 50% 39% 11%
30-44 48% 40% 12%
45-59 49% 41% 10%
60+ 46% 44% 10%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Trancredo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 29% 32% 14% 13%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 41% 46% 13%
MEN 46% 44% 10%
WOMEN 36% 48% 16%
DEMOCRATS 9% 71% 20%
REPUBLICANS 77% 17% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 38% 49% 13%
18-29 39% 49% 12%
30-44 40% 47% 13%
45-59 41% 45% 14%
60+ 43% 44% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Elway? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 29% 20% 6% 37%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 37% 26% 37%
MEN 41% 24% 35%
WOMEN 33% 28% 39%
DEMOCRATS 31% 34% 35%
REPUBLICANS 44% 18% 38%
INDEPENDENTS 36% 26% 38%
18-29 36% 27% 37%
30-44 36% 27% 37%
45-59 38% 26% 36%
60+ 38% 24% 38%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ken Salazar the Democrat and Tom Trancredo
the Republican?
SALAZAR TRANCREDO UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 37% 12%
MEN 49% 40% 11%
WOMEN 53% 34% 13%
DEMOCRATS 85% 6% 9%
REPUBLICANS 11% 72% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 35% 8%
WHITE 48% 40% 12%
BLACK 77% 3% 20%
HISPANIC 62% 29% 9%
OTHER 64% 28% 8%
18-29 53% 34% 13%
30-44 52% 36% 12%
45-59 52% 38% 10%
60+ 48% 40% 12%
DENVER 60% 33% 7%
ARAP/JEFF 52% 34% 14%
WEST 48% 40% 12%
REST 44% 41% 15%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ken Salazar the Democrat and John Elway
the Republican?
SALAZAR ELWAY UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 38% 13%
MEN 47% 41% 12%
WOMEN 51% 35% 14%
DEMOCRATS 83% 7% 10%
REPUBLICANS 10% 73% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 54% 37% 9%
WHITE 46% 41% 13%
BLACK 75% 4% 21%
HISPANIC 60% 31% 9%
OTHER 62% 30% 8%
18-29 51% 35% 14%
30-44 50% 37% 13%
45-59 50% 38% 12%
60+ 46% 42% 12%
DENVER 58% 34% 8%
ARAP/JEFF 50% 35% 15%
WEST 46% 42% 12%
REST 42% 42% 16%