Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Grassley (R) 48
Vilsack (D) 44
Woah, what? Sen. Chuck Grassley is vulnerable? Granted, it's against the state's top Democrat -- former Gov. Tom Vilsack, and there's currently no indication that Vilsack is planning on running. But the CW is that Grassley serves at will, and can hold the seat for life if he so desires. That belief is challenged by these numbers. Against the right Democrat, Grassley would face a tough fight.
Grassley
Approve 57
Disapprove 36
Vilsack
Approve 55
Disapprove 36
Their approval numbers are essentially even, and in the crosstabs, they both enjoy equal approval from independents. This would certainly be a battle of titans, pitting two popular politicians against each other. Expect incoming DSCC chief Bob Menendez to put Vilsack in his speed dial.
As for Grassley, he'll be 77 on Election Day 2010. While many political observers expect him to retire, others beg to differ. No one really knows for sure. Now if Chuck expected an easy reelection, his chances of retiring diminish. But does he really want to raise millions and fight hard in a Blue-trending state, only to sit in the deep minority? Doesn't seem so appealing.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
IOWA POLL RESULTS – DECEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from December 8 through December 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 197 (33%)
Republicans 175 (29%)
Independents/Other 228 (38%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 186 (31%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 114 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charles Grassley? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 42% 24% 12% 7%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 57% 36% 7%
MEN 61% 33% 6%
WOMEN 53% 39% 8%
DEMOCRATS 41% 56% 3%
REPUBLICANS 74% 17% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 34% 8%
18-29 52% 41% 7%
30-44 62% 32% 6%
45-59 55% 38% 7%
60+ 58% 35% 7%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Vilsack? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 40% 27% 9% 9%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 55% 36% 9%
MEN 52% 40% 8%
WOMEN 58% 32% 10%
DEMOCRATS 68% 22% 10%
REPUBLICANS 39% 54% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 35% 9%
18-29 58% 33% 9%
30-44 51% 39% 10%
45-59 57% 34% 9%
60+ 55% 37% 8%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Vilsack the Democrat and Charles Grassley
the Republican?
GRASSLEY VILSACK UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 44% 8%
MEN 51% 42% 7%
WOMEN 45% 46% 9%
DEMOCRATS 14% 81% 5%
REPUBLICANS 83% 7% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 41% 8%
18-29 42% 48% 10%
30-44 52% 41% 7%
45-59 47% 46% 7%
60+ 49% 42% 9%