I think there's reason to be very concerned about the fallout from the shoe throwing incident in Iraq. It's fun to joke about and all ("Bush hasn't dodged anything that fast since the draft!"), but the consequences are likely to be grave. The act of defiance at an American President has galvanized opinion in the Middle East. I don't want to call him Munthadar the Plumber, but that's the basic dynamic.
Arab and Iranian TV stations have gleefully replayed the clip, sometimes in slow motion, of an Iraqi reporter calling Bush a "dog" and throwing his shoes at him -- the Middle East's tastiest insults -- at a Baghdad news conference on Sunday.
The affront was a twisted echo of the triumphal moment for Bush when joyous Iraqis used their footwear to beat a statue of Saddam Hussein toppled by U.S. invading troops in 2003.
"It indicates how much antagonism he's been able to create in the whole region," former Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher told Reuters, adding that the incident was regrettable.
Bush had harmed America's reputation and the friendship many had felt for it. "Despite past mistakes in its policies, there was always a redeeming factor. In this particular case, there doesn't seem to have ever been a redeeming factor," Maher said.
Now we're learning that this guy, seen as a hero by a non-trivial segment of the Arab world, has been charged with assault (on the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, not Bush), thrown into Camp Cropper prison and tortured.
Albaghdadia, the TV channel where the Iraqi Journalist Montather Al-Zeidi works, reports that an Iraqi MP (Ms. Zainab Al-Kanani) informed them that Montather’s hand was broken in jail.
This confirms a lot of reports and rumors about Montather being subject to torture while the Iraqi authorities are interrogating and detaining him in some unspecified location.
The BBC confirmed this. There have been two days of mass demonstrations calling for Al-Zaidi's release. The news that he's being tortured will only exacerbate matters.
The fact that the charge against Maliki actually worries me most. To the extent that the central government is blamed for torturing and detaining Al-Zaidi, the Sadrists, already full-throated in their support, may see their anger turn to violence. This is an unstable country without full popular support for the ruling leaders. If a mass movement erupts around Al-Zaidi, the result would be complete chaos. And the Sunni insurgents, even the Kurds, may find an opening to resume hostilities.
It's made worse by the rumblings that the US won't stick to their withdrawal commitments as outlined in the status of forces agreement. Maliki and the US will be blamed for scamming the Iraqi people and keeping them under permanent occupation. This silencing of dissent will become a powerful symbol. There aren't a lot of steps from there to violence.
This is why Bush must forgive Al-Zaidi and work to get him removed from prison. It won't restore his public profile in the Middle East, but it would quell a threatened riot and at least put some weight behind the principle of free expression. Thers says it best:
Mr. President, please publicly forgive Muntadhar al-Zeidi for throwing shoes at you, and please state, unequivocally, that the Iraqi journalist should not face charges or endure official harassment for his actions. If American values mean anything at all, this is the right thing to do [...]
In the United States, "insulting a visiting head of state" is not a crime. Nor should it be. Throwing a shoe could certainly be illegal, and hustling a shoe-thrower out of a press conference would certainly be understandable. But pressing charges?
We value vigorous dissent in this country. So much so, that even when objects are publicly hurled at controversial speakers, we do not necessarily prosecute, and if we do, we do not consider the "insult" the specific crime at issue. Property damage as a result of such an incident might be a felony, but never an "insult." [...]
President Bush, you need to avoid this "big problem." Do this one thing, this one small thing, for the sake of peace. Forgive Muntadhar al-Zeidi and call for his immediate release, and call for him to be protected against all forms of official harassment.
Do this one right thing before you leave.
Let me second the call. Do not listen to know-nothings calling this man an "ingrate" for not appreciating American sacrifice. That's nonsense. We have invaded this country under false pretenses, killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, allowed 70% to live without access to water or electricity, and brought a once-great society to rubble. It is perfectly human to feel frustration and rage.
And if you refuse to open your mind enough to think of that, think about Baghdad on fire for the last month of your Presidency. Think about security gains lost. I'd ask you to think about the dead, but you won't, so think about your legacy.
I don't usually think calling the White House is worth a hill of beans, but give it a shot in this case. 202-456-1111 is the White House switchboars, and the Iraqi Embassy is at 202-742-1600.
These things have the tendency to quickly spiral out of control. The safety of perhaps tens of thousands of people is at stake. Please, Mr. President, you have the power to fix this.