As Caroline Kennedy all but seals the deal on the appointment, we've often focused here on dailykos about the implications i.e. Do big names only get to run for Senate? Is this undeserved political royalty?, etc.
But my biggest concerns were not for her qualifications, but her ability to hold the seat in 2010. Especially if Giuliani rears his ugly head again.
Kennedy obviously will be a great fundraiser and her name recognition is worth something in this state. In 2010 though, she will face a genuine match-up in Giuliani, a more tested national figure. (albeit despicable)
Some of these attacks will be minimized after she's faced two years in the Senate. Namely the "experience" attack.
But there are several attacks that she's vulnerable to and they, coupled with Giuliani's strengths aren't a safe combination.
Why take Giulani seriously? Because he's far too dangerous an option to leave on the table.
New York state is often pushed off as an easy Liberal state to win- and it is.
But as the New York Senate race for 2010 begins to come in focus, there are more complicating factors then we Democrats would like to admit.
Republicans still win here. And Giuliani is still potentially a worthy foe.
Those who don't think Republicans can win here don't know NY's history and don't know Giuliani. We've had Republicans win surprising amounts of control here, despite remaining a dependably Blue state.
The history is such that if a Republican can limit his margins in NYC he may have a shot at carrying the state. Remember that I said "may have" this isn't a ringing endorsement. Republicans still have a pretty steep battle ahead of them simply because of party ID here. But it is precisely Giuliani's strengths in NYC which give him some leverage to put this one in play.
How a Republican Won New York City
Republican party ID can sometimes be insignificant in New York City. Big populated boroughs like GOP stronghold Staten Island and Queens consistently deliver Republican votes leading the real fight for Brooklyn and the Bronx. Suffice to say winning New York is about convincing Dems to vote Republican. Before you laugh let me just say that this has happened for the last 16 years.
New York City has had a "Republican" Mayor for almost 16 years and Mike Bloomberg may make that 20. (He's extending term limits).
Now Bloomberg isn't your average Republican, he now calls himself an Independent. And quite honestly, I like Mike. He's a very smart man (I spoke to him for about one minute) and he aligns with Democrats ideals 90% of the time. His environmental work is groundbreaking and he's stood for many issues few Democratic congressmen would fight for.
The significant message here is he ran as a Republican and won. In a town where Democrats outnumber Repubs almost 4 to 1- Mike won against the Democrat challenger, Mike Green.
But it was Giuliani who really showed him this path to success. Giuliani boasted his liberal ties and reminded voters that he once was a Democrat in the 1970s. This kind of political shape shifting has been the hallmark of Giuliani's quest for power. Many people were watching McCain sell his soul last year, I was watching how desperate Giuliani tried to become a conservative fanatic.
How could a guy like this win in a City that produced The Ramones, Madonna, Andy Warhol, and the Stonewall Riots?
Think of movies like King of New York, Bad Lieutenant, and New Jack City. This was the New York that existed in the 1990s and 1980s, and strangely enough some of us still miss it.
Giuliani , to put it simply, changed New York City. It went from really bad to really safe in 8 years. But he did it by using a variety of cruel and somewhat Fascist measures.
He essentially arrested and vigorously prosecuted a generation. And at the same time, the results are staggering and hard to ignore.
[For a more in-depth Giuliani-era New York, I'm writing another post coming soon but I haven't finished and wasn't sure if anyone was interested.]
For those living upstate or in the Tri-state area Giuliani became a hero. They didn't see or hear of the times he blamed the mothers of dead teenagers in the media and they didn't pay attention when he tried to illegalize the hot dog vendors. News has a funny way of filtering out of New York City especially when Giuliani was here.
Suffice to say his appeal only surged outside of New York in the rural upstate. And then came 9/11 and Giuliani officially had something to wipe away his record with.
His broad appeal as a moderate may be tarnished recently in this last presidential race, but to what extent we don't know. Many upostaters still respect Giuliani greatly for his handling of 9/11. And New York City's population has ballooned with out-of-staters who have never seen what his rule was like. Many move here form the surrounding Pro-Giuliani areas.
Voters have a funny way of forgetting unless WE help them remember.
The truth about Giuliani's handling of 9/11 may be Caroline Kennedy's single most devastating attack, but will she have the political brass knuckles to pull it out? Would she want to? It would also be an attack counter the CW and require withstanding significant push back. Something tells me that's not her style.
The problem is, we don't know what her political style is.