This is the second of five 50-state diaries based on the principle that we need to compete everywhere, but that some states are more equal than others. They try to identify the bluest and reddest states and the ones in between, and evaluate how to divide the Democratic party’s resources in anticipation of the next election cycle and beyond.
The first diary, looking at the 20 BLUEST states, is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Today, I’m looking at eight more states, that are a lighter shade of blue than the first 20, and which should get another 1/5 of the party’s total time and resources, among themselves.
The eight lighter blue states are:
Maine
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Minnesota
Virginia
North Carolina
Arkansas, and
Nevada.
How did I decide which states go where? A combination of the states’ current composition (Do we control the state legislature? Executive offices? Senators? Did it go blue for President?), voting history and trends, attitude displayed by both political parties to that state, and a nebulous, catch-all "feel" of what the state is like politically. And all states in one category are not the same. Nevada’s "blueness" is very different from that of Arkansas, and Minnesota is bluer than North Carolina even though I’ve called them both "light blue"/second quintile. If some of that looks arbitrary, well, it partly is. So is politics in general. Deal with it.
The point is that, taken together, the blue states now total 28, a majority of America, and an insurmountable electoral majority. Therefore, it is good strategy to identify the weak points in our own firewall and try to fix them, make the lighter states darker blue, even as we also reach out to make inroads into the red states.
Add these eight to the 20 bluest states, and you have a big blue Northern swath from New England to NC along the Atlantic, and west to Minnesota/Iowa, and another huge Pacific swath including Nevada, plus a couple of islands made up of NM/CO and Arkansas all by itself. Those are our firewall states. And here are the weaker links individually, and what to do about them:
The Great State of MAINE would have been in the top 20 if it had even one Democratic US Senator, but it has none. And no state with two Republicans made it into the top 20. In fact, only two of the top 20, Iowa and New Hampshire, have even one Republican. Additionally, the Northern part of Maine is traditionally more conservative than the rest of New England, and the State Senate is the most closely divided house of any of the twelve state legislative chambers in New England (all six states have Dem majorities in both houses). And so Maine is the weaker link among New England states. Even so, it’s pretty good. The reddest New England state is bluer than the bluest Southern state.
The Dem brand is playing just fine here. The thing to do is keep it that way. Govern well. Work on our bench. Win more State Senate seats. Replace the outgoing Dem governor with another and better Dem. Call for unity among a "blue New England" delegation, and keep the two Senators isolated and no Republican on hand to replace either of them when they call it a career. It’ll be interesting to see how Snowe and Collins act when the Republican 41-seat minority tries to filibuster. If they join, they lose all of their hard earned "moderate" cred; if they don’t, the Obama agenda passes with flying colors. Because the Democrats can break all filibusters unless BOTH Maine Senators join each and every one, every time.
PENNSYLVANIA: The weakest of the 12-state northeastern bloc is still a decent shade of blue. McCain and the Republicans pretty much staked their entire campaign on flipping it, and failed. We went from a 7-12 GOP majority in the House delegation to 12-7 Dem in just two cycles, with at least three vulnerable GOP seats left to take, as well as winning a US Senate seat. On the other hand, PA has the only Republican majority legislative chamber in the northeast, a tenuous hold on the governorship, and one of four Republican US Senate seats in the northeast. That’s not good enough for a top 20 slot. Fortunately, we can do better.
Trends favor Democrats. PA’s light blue status is based on the central, mountainous part of the state, which has a lesser share of the population with every new decade. On the other hand, Democrats have tended to think of their stronghold as being mostly EAST PA only, when in fact they have strongholds on both ends of the state. PA should stop thinking of their share of Western PA as being Allegheny County only—they should focus as well on the solid column of counties along the Ohio border, including Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence, Butler, Beaver, Westmoreland, Washington, Greene, Fayette, and Somerset. Twelve counties, not one. The other eleven are where Republicans made their biggest gains in the Newtist era, and where Democrats have made a big part of their comeback (see our wins in the 4th and 3rd districts, leaving the 18th as the only GOP-held district in some of those counties).
For 2010, look to a full court press on the state legislature, especially in west PA, as well as the top tier open Governor and the Spectre Senate seats. House districts 6, 15, and 18 are important too, but even more important will be the position we are in come redistricting time. The Governor and the legislature are crucial.
And that’s all twelve northeastern states, either solid or light blue. It’s becoming a one party region and should be encouraged as such.
OHIO is similar to PA, only our comeback has been even more spectacular after starting out even farther behind. As recently as 2004, the conventional wisdom was that there was no effective Democratic party in Ohio, and we were unable to prevent Ken Blackwell and Diebold from delivering Ohio’s votes—and the election—to George Bush.
Since then, we’ve elected Democrats to every major executive office in Ohio, gained a US Senate seat, four House seats (changing a 6-12 deficit to a 10-8 majority), and captured the lower chamber of the legislature. Plus, Ohio went for Obama surprisingly easily, even after a nasty primary fight. Only the part of the State Senate NOT voted on in 2008, and Senator Voinovich, stand between Ohio and total blue state status.
So go for them. Win the State Senate and the House seat Ohio loses in 2012 will be a Republican one (I’m betting on the 7th, but the 4th could be broken up nicely as well). Additionally, the 14th, all by itself in the otherwise solid blue East Ohio, can and should be redrawn to favor Democrats.
Voinovich, like Gregg, Grassly, Spectre, Bond and a few others, are Senators up for re-election in blue to purple states, who cannot win as George Bush clones, and who therefore should have huge, huge targets on their backs. Any filibuster they join must be hammered at relentlessly in their home states, painting the Senator as THE ONE VOTE that stopped health care, etc. If Voinovich filibusters, he loses. If he does not filibuster, he probably gets club-for-growthed. Either way, we’re looking at a new Senator named Hackett or Sutton or even Kucinich.
MINNESOTA, now that Big Al Franken has won his rightful place in the Senate, is now the bluest state on the light blue list, despite having failed to take either of two promising House districts, and despite it taking so long to certify Franken. The only state in the union with seven straight blue votes for President. Nevertheless, the trends have been worrisome in part, and I’m not the only one who thinks so. The Republicans would not have had their convention here if they did not think MN could be won. Like PA, Minnesota is still under siege by the GOP, and we need to devote special attention to our brand here. Take out Pawlenty in 2010 and win a sixth House seat, and MN will jump into the bluest of the blue easily.
VIRGINIA and NORTH CAROLINA go together, forming the party’s toehold in the South. First, look at where Virginia has come in one decade:
- Commonly seen as an unalterably red state, no Democrats need apply. Our last major Democrat, the less-than-stellar Chuck Robb, loses to George Allen. We have NOTHING. Three House seats out of 11. Virgil Goode has switched to Republican.
- Mark Warner elected Governor, immediately attains Wunderkind status for having done something impossible. Victory described as a fluke, since, clearly, Democrats are unelectable in Virginia.
2002-2004: Warner doing good, but Democrats a shambles everywhere else. Raising Kaine blog founded.
- Warner succeeded by Kaine, keeping the Governor Democratic. Dems pick up seats in both houses of the State Leg, but remain in the minority.
- George Allen talking about running for President, cockily referring to rural Virginia as "the real America". Jim Webb defeats Allen to regain the Robb Senate seat. Republican derisive laughter turns to nervous gasps of surprise, soon to be screams of fear.
- Democrats take the Virginia Senate, make more gains in the House.
- Obama wins Virginia, the first Dem to do so since LBJ. Meanwhile, Warner runs for the remaining Senate seat and doesn’t even look back. Democrats win three US House seats, including the geographically largest and most rural of the 11, making a majority of the delegation.
2009:--Keep going! This could be the year we pick up the State House and keep the Governorship, giving Democrats total control of the state government. If we do so, watch for changes in the legislative and US House maps, in particular the 4th, 10th and either the 1st or 7th. I can see us easily getting an 8-3 Dem delegation come 2012. Then it’ll be time to defend the Webb seat.
Demographics are good for Virginia Dems. The influence of solid blue NOVA will only grow.
North Carolina, on the other hand, has had a solid if blue-doggish Dem presence all along, keeping the state legislature for decades as well as a solid proportion of Democrats, even with two AA districts making the surrounding area harder to win. We’ve gotten better in the past two cycles, picking up two US House seats, a Senate seat, and going for Obama—something that was not predicted by many people until just before the election. However, all three major statewide races, Gov, Sena and Pres, were won narrowly, and no one can honestly call NC a solid blue state unless we build on what we’ve got and make the Dem brand a choice for a solid proportion of the people.
NC’s Dem strength tends to be in pockets; The research triangle, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, the outer banks, Asheville, several AA population pockets, maybe parts of places like Greensboro and Fayetteville. Build on it.
The next step is the "turnstile" Senate seat that has historically changed parties every election since 1974, and is now ready to flip Democratic. The Republican is weak, and if a popular Dem like ex-governor easley wants the seat, it’s his for the taking.
ARKANSAS is the oddest duck on the list. It and WV are the two of the 28 on the blue lists that did not in fact go blue for President. And while WV is at least surrounded on almost all sides by blue states (PA, MD, VA and OH, with only KY connecting it to the red bloc) and has many Democrats who are not blue dogs, Arkansas is surrounded by OK, TX, LA, MS, TN and MO. Only Missouri counts as even a purple state, and the part that touches Arkansas is the reddest part of the state. AR has only voted blue for President in recent years when native son Bill Clinton was on the ticket. Hence, WV on the bluest list while AR is not.
On the other hand, Arkansas is too Democratic on every level but President to be left off the blue state list entirely. Dems in every executive office, both Senators, 3 out of 4 US Representatives, and huge legislative majorities. Even more, no Republican even bothered to challenge any Dem Representative or Senator in 2008. With the exception of Mike Huckabee, who right now holds no office and might not be seeking one, there is essentially NO Republican presence in Arkansas. However, with Democrats like this, some might say they don’t need Republicans.
Biggest thing to do is to keep selling the Democratic brand to voters who continue to buy it willingly, in everything but President. Use the solid Dem federal government to reward Arkansas for remaining loyal while the surrounding states are reminded that their elected Senators do not want economic stimulus and therefore don’t get any. In the long run, Arkansas either makes the leap into supporting Democrats for President, or it makes the opposite leap into State and local Democrats going Republican. Let’s do what we can to keep brand ID with the Democrats.
If Harry Reid is the Landrieu of 2010 (the only incumbent Democratic Senator in actual danger), then Blanche Lincoln is the Lautenberg (the one not really in danger, but people are talking about it as a potentially competitive seat). Seems to me, Lincoln is only even a second tier race if Huckabee is foolish enough to run. Considering they similarly sniffed around Mark Pryor, the other Senator, last cycle, and he ended up with no challenger at all, I’m not worried.
Finally, there’s NEVADA, the only western state on the light blue list. The west has a solid blue Pacific coast and a hard to crack solid redness in most of the thinly populated north Rockies. That leaves a bloc of four states for which our goal is to give the Democrats a "solid southwest", further isolating the GOP and diminishing their opportunities. Of the four states, Colorado and New Mexico are already there and need only be defended. Arizona has the farthest still to go. Nevada is the next step.
Nevada has supported the declared winner of the past six Presidential elections, and 2008 is the first one in which it has done so with more than 51%. We have one long term US Senator, who happens to be majority leader, and a huge margin in the lower house of the legislature. We also picked up a US House seat (making 2 out of 3) and the State Senate in 2008.
Next step: Pick up the Governorship (excellent prospects, since the incumbent Republican is under an ethics cloud and the GOP LT. Gov has been indicted), add more State Senate seats, and defend Harry Reid, in about that order. Arguably, Reid should step down as majority leader if he will not fight the Republicans harder, but he should not lose his seat unless we are damn sure a better Democrat is there to primary him. We’ll surpass 60 seats in 2010, but better to have a situation like 2008 where even the one "endangered" Dem seat is not all that endangered.
Get the state government trifecta and we control redistricting, when Nevada gets a new US House seat. I favor breaking up Vegas, myself, and extending each of three districts out, one to each corner of the triangular Clark County. The two northernmost of these should also take in much of the thinly populated "cow counties", and the 4th district should be mostly Washoe County. Hence, good preparation in the meantime will be allocating resources to the Reno, Sparks, Carson City metro area, where for the first time in Decades we have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Get that corner along with Clark County, and Nevada will be an unalterably blue state for the foreseeable future. And then it will be time to squeeze Arizona...
And that’s the eight light blue states! Next time, five "purple" states in the middle, the winning of which will make America a solid Democratic country.
Update: RESCUED! I love it when they Notice Me! Thanks, joyful!