If former Republican governor Jeb Bush and present Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink both decide to run for Mel Martinez’ senate seat in 2010, then it is very likely that Florida Democrats will go
from winning the presidential race in the state in 2008 to losing all five statewide races in 2010 (US Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer, Commissioner of Agriculture). And worse, the two redistricting reform initiatives that will be on the ballot (one for congress, one for the state legislature) will also be defeated. In other words, a complete disaster for the Florida Democratic Party.
Let’s look at the likely scenario that will make this happen.
Considering all the noise he is making, Jeb is in the race. The only issue is who is going to be his
Democratic opponent. Alex Sink is the national favorite and it’s hard to see her not running, especially with the support she’ll get. She’s a very attractive candidate and would normally have a good chance of winning another statewide race, especially if she ran for re-election. But the events leading up to November 2010 will work against her in the race for US Senate.
The first concern is that Jeb Bush will run unopposed, which is the purpose of his early announcement. With no primary to drain funds he will amass an unmatchable war chest of big money contributions which will be completely available for the general election.
It is highly unlikely that Sink will be so lucky. Representative Allen Boyd, FL-02, will almost certainly give it a shot. When you look at all the Democratic and Republican senators who actually thought they could be president, I think we can all agree there’s no accounting for the hubris of politicians. A primary race against Boyd would cost money that would be better spent attacking Jeb, but more importantly, it will hurt her politically in a statewide race.
There is no doubt she would win. Boyd is a Blue Dog and his conservatism isn’t going to sell very well in a Democratic primary with South Florida voters. He would lose in the same way that Rod Smith lost to Jim Davis in the gubernatorial primary in 2006. But the effect of his campaign against Sink would be to push her to the left on the issues.
When she ran for Chief Financial Officer all she had to mention was her fiscal conservatism. Her commercials, attacking a supposedly out of control legislature, could have easily passed as Republican ads. When you compare the counties she won to the ones Obama won you can see she picked up a fair amount of conservative voters throughout the state who were charmed by her down home accent and comforted by her banking background. But after the 2008 presidential campaign and a primary against Boyd, all that’s going to go away. In 2010, a Democratic running statewide who doesn’t already have a very strong celebrity status in the state is going to be running against John McCain’s constituency.
Obama was able to beat that with a gigantic ground game and an enormous turnout in the Black precincts. That’s not going to happen again in 2010. The voters who made up the margin of difference in the 2008 presidential race will be sitting out the 2010 elections because the impetus of a once in a lifetime presidential contest will not be a part of it. Don’t forget what happened in the Georgia senate runoff. While the results won’t be that bad, the fundamental dynamic will be the same.
A truly worst case scenario for Sink would be for both Boyd and Kendrick Meek, FL-17, to run in a Democratic primary. Since there would be no runoff, almost anything could happen, but most likely, Sink would still win. But with both in the race against her, not only would she be pushed to the left, she would also turn off even more of the Black voters since she would be seen as spoiling Meek’s chances.
It is this element that is also going to doom the redistricting initiatives. Since they are constitutional amendments, a 60% passage rate is required. Republicans will campaign against them as a power grab by Democrats, (the same argument used by craven Democrats in California when attacking Prop 11 there), which in itself will probably condemn them. But, Republicans will also spread the rumor that the initiatives are an attempt to get rid of majority minority districts, thereby disenfranchising Black voters. If Meek runs in the Democratic US Senate primary and is defeated by Sink, this scenario will be particularly devastating.
The rest of the Democratic ticket wouldn’t fare any better. Crist at governor and McCollum at AG would be running as incumbents and would probably win easily. Adam Putnam, FL-12 will probably run for Ag Commissioner and have an enormous fund raising capability. The Democrat that’s been mentioned as a possibility to run for Sink’s office if she resigns to run for the US Senate is Palm Beach County’s Clerk & Comptroller, Sharon Bock. With Jeb at the top of the ticket, it would be easy to portray her as a South Florida liberal.
This disastrous sweep will also lead to the Republican legislature redistricting of congressional seats after the 2010 census. This means the new seat Florida is expected to receive will go Republican and the three turnovers from 2006 and 2008 will be reversed in the 2012 elections. The present 10-15 Dem/Rep deficit will balloon to 7/19.
Yikes. Is there any way out of this mess? The only possibility I see is for people to discourage Sink from running for Martinez’ seat. An Op-Ed in my local paper had a similar sentiment:
That's why I'd hate to see Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leave her current post to run for the U.S. Senate. Yes, she is doing a magnificent job in her post, which she's held for two years. Yes, as a longtime professional banker, she is probably more qualified for the job she now holds than any comptroller in the history of the Florida Cabinet.
But Sink needs more time to gather the broader knowledge of governing, beyond finance and, increasingly, environmental issues. She'd also face enormous challenges in trying to raise the estimated $40 million it would take to launch a statewide senatorial race against Jeb, who comes to fully equipped with money-raising prowess and name recognition.
Like the columnist, I would much rather see her stick around and run for governor in 2014.
The other possibility is to encourage Meek to run only if Sink chooses to sit it out. Personally, I’d love to see Meek as the candidate. He has a history of vexing Jeb and he could possibly still invigorate the Obama supporters that made 2008 a success. Certainly with Jeb in the race we have to have The Audacity of Hope.
Cross Posted From FlaPolitics.com