The satellite shootdown, if it works, may cause a spectacular comet shower which may last for hours and may be seen by millions. The news coverage may upstage the primaries for a few days. This event will intersect presidential politics.
The window of opportunity for targeting lies between the landing of the shuttle Atlantis and the re-entry in the atmosphere of USA-193 (the failed spy satellite).
The Aegis US Navy ship Lake Erie will fire an SM-3 anti-ballistic missile from somewhere in the Pacific. If it fails, two other such ships will try in the following days.
The danger posed by the hydrazine fuel is not the reason why this stunt will take place. I’ll cover the real reasons below the fold.
McCain, with his military credentials, may benefit when all presidential candidates are asked to comment about the shootdown and Anti Ballistic Missile Defense. Then again, he could blow it big time.
If I were Clinton or Obama I would be putting some thought into a coherent position regading this unprecedented event.
The hydrazine smoke screen
Hydrazine is transported by truck over roads and highways all over the US. This chemical is a molecular cousin of ammonia and has many uses beyond rocket fuel. Nobody is freaking out when larger loads than the 1000 to 2500 pounds on board USA-193.
According to the NFPA 704 (National Fire Protection Association) standard gives it a 3 in health effects;
- Short exposure could cause serious temporary or moderate residual injury (e.g., chlorine gas).
It is NOT the danger of the hydrazine. This lie is for public consumption like the WMD lie was used to manage public opinion before the Iraq invasion. The Russians, Chinese and pretty much everyone who knows anything about anything discards this as a lie to get the American public behind it. What do you expect?
Given the instability of hydrazine and the energy released by the impact it will explode when USA-193 impacts on land or sea. Worst case scenario, if it fell in a populated area, anyone within two football fields may die. Then again 328 satellites have fallen to earth in the past 5 years and no one was hurt. And when the shuttle Columbia blew up over Texas no one was hurt either. Here.
David Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in an interview Friday he would put the odds of a successful intercept at no better than 50 percent. And he expressed concern that debris from a successful strike could harm the other objects in relatively low orbit.Here. So why try this risky stunt?
The real reasons
- Flight test of Aegis/SM-3 in a new mission
Shooting down incoming missiles and satellites in orbit IS rocket science. To get things right you have to conduct test. This shootdown is such a test and it comes with its own hydrazine danger "peaceful use" smoke screen.
Then again the SM-3 was designed to target ballistic missiles that fly much lower and slower than USA-193 will be flying when the trigger is pulled. So this flight test does not help improve its ABM missile but it opens the door for additional missions which will need to be budgeted and further justifies the Navy's involvement in space warfare. The US Air Force must be watching this development in dismay. They thought space warfare belonged to them. The US Army has ABM involvement mostly in the re-entry phase of incoming ballistic missiles.
- Sensitive technology
Others have proposed that given the fact that USA-193 is a recently launched (2006) spy satellite, it would be bad for the on board equipment to fall into hands of the Chinese or the Russians (we are inching towards a neo-Cold War). This justification cannot be used publicly and in any case the chances that any on board equipment survives re-entry and impact in recognizable form are close to zero. The fuel tank with frozen hydrazine may survive re-entry to explode on impact.
- New arms race for military-industrial complex
Anti-Ballistic Missile defense was one of Paul Wolfowitz’s main preoccupations in 2001 before 9/11.
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday the Pentagon planned to begin construction next April on sites for new missile defense tests, which could violate the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty.
The neo-cons look at space as yet another way to drive the country into a never ending war. If this satellite shootdown drives the Chinese, Russians, Indians, Israelis, Japanese, Europeans into a space armaments race, the neo-cons will spin it as vindication of their worldview.
The military-industrial complex is licking its chopsthinking at the huge budgets that may be assigned to ABM programs. If the test is a success, they may get blank checks, especially the Navy and the Aegis defense contractors and every country ill want the Aegis/SM-3 weapon system. The Japanese have already ordered more than 20. If it fails, it will be used as a reason to spend even more money.
Obama and Clinton will have to deal with an out of control militarization of space from day one. McCain will feel like a kid in a candy store. Thank you once more neo-con war mongers.
- Plutonium fuel to replace solar panels
One more possible reason for attempting the shootdown was covered by norahc in a diary; US to shoot down spy sat ..... Plutonium 238?
Why it will probably fail
The order to go ahead and start modifying the SM-3 software and hardware to shoot down the satellite was given on January 4. Here. Since then 200 engineers and scientists from NASA, the Pentagon and Raytheon have been working very hard to reprogram the software. The SM-3 was designed to shoot down an incoming missile about 100 miles up (actual renge is classified) and moving at about 3-4 kilometers per second, the USA-193 satellite will be screaming thorugh space at 7 to 8 kilometers per second 130 to 150 miles up, during the window of opportunity. What I know of rush software reprogramming jobs involving more than 10 people is that they do not succeed.
An incoming missile has a different heat signature so the final heat seeking stage of the SM-3 has to be modified. More fuel may need to be added to the SM-3 to reach higher altitudes too. This kind of things are not accomplished in rush jobs.
Political impact
In a 2004 poll conducted by Missile Defense Advocacy, the lobbying group for the ABM gang within the military-industrial complex, the results show that 82% of Americans think the US should have, "a missile defense system with the ability to protect the United States, its cities and its population from an attack by missiles that contain weapons of mass destruction."
In my opinion, from the point of view of the McCain campaign, this falling hydrazine is mana from heaven. I can see it already. If the Repug media and neo-con spinmeisters play their cards right, McCain will be perceived as the presidential candidate that is most capable of winning the ABM race for America.
I think that it is tragic that we are here in 2008 almost 20 years after the end of the Cold War. I really hope that Obama manages to get elected and starts changing the mindset that brought us the Iraq occupation, the failure to capture Osama bon Laden and this new space arms race that will get a huge push thanks to this satellite shootdown stunt.
Hillary Clinton has a chance to distance herself from the neo-con conspiracy lead by Paul Wolfowitz that restarted this military-industrial complex cash cow.
Navy film on previous SM-3 tests. Were they rigged?