-DavidNYC at Swing State Project has written a piece listing the incumbent Democratic Congressmen who have lost a reelection bid since 1996. There have only been 16 of them in toto, and eight of those were casualties of redistricting. Quite an impressive record for Democrats, and it gives us hope heading into this fall, when so many Democratic freshmen will be up for reelection.
-CQ Politics, taking a cue from Swing State Project, lists the lists the top 10 House challengers to incumbents in order of cash-on-hand. Not surprisingly, nine of them are Democrats:
Jim Himes, CT-04
Kay Barnes, MO-06
Darcy Burner, WA-08
Mark Schauer, MI-07
Dan Seals, IL-10
Judy Feder, VA-10
Michael Skelly, TX-07
Gary Peters, MI-09
Bob Lord, AZ-03
The lone Republican on the list is Sandy Treadwell in NY-20, challenging Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, and Treadwell only because he's a self-funder.
NV-03: State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus kicked off her candidacy for this D+1 seat today, as the previous candidate, Robert Daskas, suddenly dropped out last week. The DCCC seems excited about Titus' candidacy, and the district is certainly winnable. She starts about $1M behind Republican incumbent Jon Porter, but she has good fundraising contacts from her unsuccessful 2006 run for Governor, so we'll see if she can catch up.
NC-03: On several issues, Republican incumbent Walter Jones has slowly drifted away from much of his party in recent years, most notably in his opposition to the Iraq War. In fact, Jones was reportedly targeted by House Democrats to switch parties in early 2007. As such, Jones faces a primary challenge from unashamed right-winger Joe McLaughlin in his staunchly Republican district (R+15) district. With a week to go before the primary, Jones looks to be in good position to survive:
With less than a week until North Carolina’s primary, Joe McLaughlin (R) is still waiting for his ship to come in.
McLaughlin, an Onslow County commissioner, was tagged early this cycle as a potential GOP incumbent-slayer, in this case against Rep. Walter Jones Jr. (R-N.C.), a born-again Iraq War critic. But in the waning hours leading up until the Tar Heel State’s May 6 primary, an upset of Jones appears unlikely, and preliminary conclusions already are streaming in for the reasons why: fundraising, fundraising, fundraising.
Even McLaughlin’s campaign on Wednesday wasn’t glossing over the reality of empty cupboards.
"I’m not an idiot. When [Jones] has got three-quarters of a million dollars [and McLaughlin] has got a buck and a quarter, I would never commit that we’re going to go out there and beat him," McLaughlin spokesman Doug Raymond said. "But I bet my house that it’s going to be close."
Even the Club for Growth turned down McLaughlin for financial aid, which has to hurt.
MO-09: We've had a lot of fun with Brock Olivo in the past, and we'll continue to do so. But there's a much more serious and dangerous Republican candidate in the race: medical doctor, State Representative, and certified nutter Bob Onder, who is the perfect Republican one-trick pony: he's already learned how to use the Big Bad Liberals as a scarecrow in lieu of having actual policy proposals.
Here's the centerpiece of his economic platform:
-Hold the line against Liberals in Washington who want to raise our taxes
And as for social issues:
As a father of six and a committed husband of 13 years, Dr. Onder is a family man first and foremost. He will stand up to Liberals who want to destroy marriage and cheapen the sanctity of human life.
I always like the guys who capitalize "Liberals". You know they're the really special ones.
Unlike Brock Olivo, Onder is actually a serious candidate, and currently the Republican frontrunner for the seat: he has raised over $370K so far, although he is $250,000 in debt. He's opposed by Democrats Steve Gaw and Judy Baker.
NY-13: Republican Rep. Vito Fossella was arrested for DUI last night (hat tip to ortcutt). This can't be good for him, not in a district with a slight Democratic lean, not when the DCCC has already targeted him for defeat. Democrats Domenic Recchia and Steve Harrison are vying for the right to face Fossella, though the filing date is not until July 17 and another candidate could step forward.