Whats Right with Appalachia: an electoral opportunity

For once, I'm not talking about coal-fired power plants or the incredible natural resources in Appalachia like wind, natural gas, and coal which we currently exploit for electricity production.

I'm talking about the incredible electoral opportunity in Appalachia which Democrats MUST understand and act upon as we move towards the general election. It is especially prescient as we watch the West Virginia primary today. Within Appalachia lies the key to a Democratic Presidency

Appalachia is a treasure trove of 70 "swing" electoral votes. Thats as many as Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, and New Mexico combined.

But the thing about Appalachia people need to understand is that it largely represented by Democrats, and should be a Democratic bread and butter area in the Presidential election. Our candidates will ignore Appalachia at their own peril.

Part 1: Democrats CAN win in Appalachia
Democratic success in Appalachian states is enough to make any New Englander jealous. Granted, many of these elected officials are not representative of the more progressive Democratic pockets in New England and on the west coast, but many of them are.

West Virginia
Governor - Joe Manchin (Dem)
Senators - Robert Byrd (Dem), John Rockerfeller (Dem)
Congress (2/3 Dem) - Nick Rahall (Dem), Alan Mollohan (Dem)
Dems control the state House 72(D)-28(R)
Dems control the state Senate 23(D)-11(R)

The state Auditor, Treasurer, Ag Commissioner, and Attorney General are Dems.

West Virginia went for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice.

Ohio
Governor - Ted Strickland (Dem)
Senator - Sherrod Brown (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Ohio is represented by 2 Dems in Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Zack Space (OH-18)

Ohio went for Clinton in 92 and 96

Virginia
Governor - Tim Kaine (Dem)
Senator - Jim Webb (Dem), soon to be joined by Mark Warner (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Virginia is represented by Rick Boucher (Dem)
Dems just took control of the state Senate in 2006

North Carolina
Governor - Mike Easley
Senators - ew. BUT Kay Hagan (Dem) is already polling even with Liddy Dole even without high name recognition statewide.
Congress - Appalachian North Carolina is represented by Heath Shuler (as well as 2 Repubicans)
Dems just expanded our majority in the state House in 2006
Dems just expanded our majority in the state Senate in 2006

Kentucky
Governor/LG - Beshear/Mongiardo (Dem)
Attorney General -  Conway (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Kentucky is represented by a few Republicans and Ben Chandler.
Democrats control the state House 63D-36R
The state auditor and treasurer are Dems.

Kentucky went for Clinton in 92 and 96

Tennessee
Governor - Phil Bredesen
Congress (5/9) - Lincoln Davis (Dem), Bart Gordon (Dem) and Jim Cooper (Dem) are all right there in what the Appalachian Regional Commission calls "Appalachia.
Dems control the state House  53D-46R
Dems split the state Senate 16D-16R-1I

Tennessee went for Clinton in 92 and 96

I'm less familiar with PA, although I'm sure you could point to several Democratic Representatives from W PA, as well as looking at Rendell and Casey's performance there to see that Dems can win Appalachia.

Part 2: Democrats MUST win in Appalachia
Lets look at presidential success over the last 30 years based on what we define as "Appalachia": WV, PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY

1976
Carter (297)- WV, PA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Ford (240)- VA

1980
Carter (49) - WV
Reagan (489) - PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY

1984
Reagan (525) - WV, PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
Mondale (13)

1988
Bush (426) - PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
Dukakis (111) - WV

1992
Clinton (370) - WV, PA, OH, TN, KY
Bush (168) - NC, VA

1996
Clinton (379) - WV, PA, OH, TN, KY
Dole (159) - NC, VA

2000
Bush (271) - WV, VA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Gore (266) - PA

2004
Bush (286) - WV, VA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Kerry (251) - PA

Appalachia goes with the winning candidate every time.

3. Obama peforms poorly in Appalachia
I say this as one of Obama's most strident supporters, because it is an issue that we MUST deal with coming up to the general election. Obama's poor performance has been well-documented by many people. For instance, while Obama won the state of Virginia by 29 points, he lost Appalachian Virginia (VA-09) by 32 points. Thats a swing of -61%. Thats bad news.

Some have tried to imply that Obama performs poorly because of Appalachian racism. Ignoring that an Arab American represents WV in Congress, and that Appalachia has a mixed and often progressive history on civil rights. And before I turn to statistics proving otherwise, I want to just acknowledge that racism is a worldwide problem, and has been since the beginning of recorded history. There are racists in Appalachia, and there are racists on Rodeo Drive and there are racists on Wall Street. Appalachia is no more racist than the demographics which form it. WVaBlue, makes a great point that today's primary in West Virginia perfectly reflects the demographics of West Virginia compared to previous primaries. It is a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton.

Appalachia is not just some racist backwater, it is the key to electoral success in Presidential elections. So, Democrats, after the WV primary today, and the KY primary next Tuesday - y'all keep coming back. Appalachia has a lot to offer you, and in many ways we need your help. Appalachia has some of the highest poverty rates in the entire country, and a lot of those communities are being ripped apart by mountaintop removal coal-mining. But the Appalachian people are a good people, with an often progressive social history alongside with a relatively "conservative" culture to those outside the region.

4. So we need to help Obama improve his performance here
Whos coming with me?!

bonus...can you find the author?

•  Tips and Thoughts

  For Nina Simone, Miles Horton, Carter Woodson, and Booker T. Washington, among the many many civil rights heroes from Appalachia.

  And check out WVaBlue for the latest and greatest on today's election results

  by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:18:42 AM PDT

  •  Thank you faithfull

    and bless you for all your hard work.

    It's easy to point figures when reality doesn't agree with perception, you keep pluggin' and good luck.

    peace

    by LaEscapee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:23:39 AM PDT

    •  um "fingers"^ n/t

      by LaEscapee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:24:16 AM PDT

    •  My pleasure

      And I appreciate the kind words. You just gotta stick up for your homeplace, and I hope that through the great writing of some of the Appalachian Kossacks on this site, we can at least start to change the perception that everybody in Appalachia is a dumb racist hick.

      by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:34:27 AM PDT

  •  lots of veterans too

    Ohio along the Ohio River. West Virginia. Kentucky.
    The only jobs Bush got for Appalachia were going to Iraq. It's an economic draft.
    They are proud to serve, but they should have more choices.

    by annalivia on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:25:12 AM PDT

    •  jobs

      I know I talk about it every post, but mountaintop removal mining has meant fewer mining jobs.

      

      Appalachia should be an emerging center in the new clean energy economy. A well trained work-force, tons of wind potential, and lots of people looking for good work.

      by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:47:30 AM PDT

  •  I agree that no part of the country...

    Should be ignored or forgotten.  Especially when a foothold in Appalachia gives us a connection to so many states at the same time.

    That being said, it seems to me that a local Democratic effort to get people to know Senator Obama may be the best strategy.  If the voters there trust their elected officials at the municipal and state level and federal level, then maybe it's best to have Obama do some campaigning with these officials.  That gives Obama an inroad into a community and then what he does with his message is up to him, once people give him a chance instead of relying on something familiar.

    It sounds like Obama can throw money at GOTV efforts in other parts of the country, but Appalachia may need a personal touch and personal attention.

    by BasharH on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:52:37 AM PDT

    •  I think you're exactly right

      Obama has some great high-profile endorsements from Appalachia (Rockerfeller, Rahall, Boucher), but I haven't seen him do a whole lot of events with them (except that he took Rockerfeller to Ohio). Hopefully that will change as we turn towards the GE.

      I also agree that the "personal touch" is hugely important in Appalachia. Especially because Obama comes from a very differnet background than the Appalachian people (in EVERY way). I think there needs to be some bonding. Appalachian voters and Obama need to take a road trip together, or maybe take a weekend to camp in the new river gorge, sort some things out.

      by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:57:14 AM PDT

  •  Good diary, Faithfull.

    Appalachia has home grown economic populists.  We need to build on that.

    by TomP on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:02:11 AM PDT

  •  yeah! you're the cute one with big smile!

    we definitely need to work out an obama plan for appalachia and somehow makes sure he gets a copy.

    thanks faithfull!

    p.s. did i win the bonus?

    by Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:55:57 AM PDT

    •  Ding Ding Ding

      Close...I'm right next to her. ;)

      by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:25 AM PDT

      •  btw. working on new MTR diary

        poor bushie ain't doing so great with his new fill material rules! :)

        by Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:24:59 AM PDT

        •  Couldn't be happier to hear it

          Let us know when you're going to post so I can bring my keyboard and popcorn.

          by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:17:38 AM PDT

      •  The cool chick with the flowing silver hair?

        Thanks for this.  I too am very impressed with the scope of this diary and all the cool maps and other graphics sprinkled in with this and additional posts.  Way to go!  As one with one foot in northeastern PA and the other in NYC, I find your topic fascinating. We'll be working for Barack in PA in the general, God willing!

        by Nature Maven on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:34:11 AM PDT

•  Most of those states are in play anyway

  Nice map.

  But keep in mind (unless you said it already), that most of those states, can be won (in spite of Appalachia).

  I wouldn't sweat it.

  Obama has a different map, than Clinton does.

  Don't sweat it!

  by Excelscior1 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:24:36 AM PDT

  •  Exactly

    But I think that, like with Warner in Virginia, Democrats win the state only when they compete heavily in Appalachia - particularly in Ohio, VA, and TN. Of course, ALL of WV is Appalachia.

    

    Here you can see that Warner performs strongly in Appalachian Virginia, setting Dems up to retain the Governorship and help to kick George Allen out of the Senate and replace him with Appalachian expert Jim Webb. So, I'd argue that the Appalachian opportunity applies not only to the national level, but on the state level as well for most of these states.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:29:44 AM PDT

•  I'm with you . . .

  (metaphorically at least) Australia's a fair hike from your neck of the wood

  The people of Appalachia are surely in need of genuine hope.  There's an electoral opportunity there--and much more than that.  

  Thanks for your dedication, faithfull

  by Rick in Oz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:24:46 AM PDT

  •  I'll be glad to come to Australia...

    ...to give the powerpoint presentation any time :)

    Whatever it takes ya know? :)

    I appreciate the kind words.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:35:37 AM PDT

•  Well intentioned but somewhat confusing!

  Some of those states mentioned contain only a portion of Appalachia. The electoral votes are given to the overall state winner. This is not to diminish the Appalacian portion.

  by humphrey on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:27:28 AM PDT

  •  Yes

    And apologies for the confusion.

    But with a little bit deeper analysis, I would make the same argument for most of these states that whichever candidate carries the Appalachian part of the state will carry the state as a whole. Of course, its not NECCESARY, but improving his performance in Appalachia is one of the things that helped Mark Warner win here, and set Dems up for a string of successes statewide. Strickland performed well in Appalachian Ohio, although its hard to say that that was the deciding factor since he won by such a HUGE margin.

    I think you make a good and valid point, and one that I'd like to address in a future post in greater detail.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:32:13 AM PDT

•  For some time, I have commented here that...

  Sen. Obama should not hesitate to campaign in the region. Indeed, showing up is key to convincing these voters that their votes matter. Both HRC and McCain have campaigned in the region already. McCain even went to Inez, KY, the site of Robert Kennedy's important visit some 40 years ago.

  by va dare on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:27:47 AM PDT

  •  I know Bill Clinton was down in SWVA earlier

    Has there been any other campaigning down there?

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:36:20 AM PDT

    •  Before the primary, Obama was scheduled...

      to come to Roanoke but had to cancel due to wildfires. Since then, nothing.

      by va dare on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:41:45 AM PDT

      •  thats a shame

        by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:03:36 AM PDT

  •  Agree

    While it's too late to worry about primaries, Obama would be well served to do as RFK did in 1968.  If he gets to know these people better and they know him, I believe he can win the hearts and minds of most.  I have not seen any candidate to date really make an effort to do so.  IMO, he was not just doing so to run for President but he actually cared, that's the difference.
    And most important someone needs to do so because the following is more true today than ever before:

    It is a revolutionary world we live in. Governments repress their people; and millions are trapped in poverty while the nation grows rich; and wealth is lavished on armaments.  

    For the fortunate among us, there is the temptation to follow the easy and familiar paths of personal ambition and financial success so grandly spread before those who enjoy the privilege of education. But that is not the road history has marked for us.  

    The future does not belong to those who are content with today, apathetic toward common problems and their fellow man alike. Rather it will belong to those who can blend vision, reason and courage in a personal commitment to the ideals and great enterprises of American society.

    Robert F. Kennedy

    from The Robert F. Kennedy Performance Project

    by Tx LIberal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:51:21 AM PDT

    •  Thats a great quote

      And Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to be one of Appalachia's champions in the celebrity world.  I think that we can do a lot to address endemic Appalachian poverty if we allow Appalachia to be a center in the new clean energy economy. Good green jobs building and installing wind turbines and solar panels would mean a LOT as we transition off of coal in this area.

      by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:06:12 AM PDT

•  Article on Politico speaks to this...

  Obama's long country road:

  The current high spirits in the Obama campaign could be tempered in coming weeks when West Virginia and Kentucky voters render their verdict on the Democratic race. ...

  But Obama’s Appalachian struggles do not faze supporters such as Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), even though Clinton won his district by an almost 2-to-1 margin. Boucher suggested voters in his largely rural southwest Virginia district would ultimately gravitate to Obama’s message of economic development, telemedicine to expand health care, federal support for water infrastructure projects, and broadband development to provide expanded Internet service and attract high tech jobs.

  "It’s a challenging region for Democratic presidential candidates under all circumstances," Boucher said. "But I am absolutely confident that he will be even stronger than Sen. Clinton was in contending for the votes of rural voters." In the general election, "I do not anticipate a defection of Democratic voters away from Sen. Obama and to the Republicans," Boucher said. "Sen. Obama has special qualities that will enable him to be more competitive" than previous Democratic nominees Al Gore and John F. Kerry, both of whom came up short in Boucher’s 9th District and statewide.

  by va dare on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:34:22 AM PDT

  •  For the record...

    ...thats the first time I've seen you use Boucher's name without swearing! :)

    Its actually really refreshing to hear him talk about an issue other than coal.

    Do you think Obama's early endorsements by Boucher and Rahall will help him GOTV in SWVA and SoWV in the general election?

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:38:22 AM PDT

    •  Boucher's didn't help in VA's primary...

      but the general will be the test. What would be even more helpful would be if the UMWA announced an Obama endorsement. Early on, they had endorsed John Edwards and I've heard nothing from them since he left the campaign trail. Given the UMWA's long history of racial integration, one would think they would see Obama as a perfect 'icon' of their own history. I've tried contacting district officials but haven't heard from them regarding their plans for the general.

      by va dare on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:45:07 AM PDT

•  cheers to faithfull

  and this most excellent diary!

  by terrypinder on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:39:12 AM PDT

  •  Gratsi!

    See, Im even cultured.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:06:48 AM PDT

•  I'm definitely coming with you....

  I know WV and West Virginians. (And I'm an Obama supporter.)

  IMO, the contempt shown to people from Appalachia  by some Obama supporters is WAY off base. (Cheap, unfounded, and not the best path toward Obama's "united states".)

  I live a long way from Appalachia now, but I would do ANYTHING in support of my old Rawl, WV neighbors.

  by jeaeva on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:57:03 AM PDT

  •  Rawl got public water finally

    And there have been a few Dear Colleague letters from members of Congress mentioning their situation in regards to mountaintop removal.

    Glad to have your support. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. You can also never tell anybody that I quoted the eagles.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:58:47 AM PDT

•  Well said

  by Carnacki on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:08:59 AM PDT

•  Goes hand in hand with my thoughts yesterday

  I diaried about the older folks yesterday.  I think it goes hand in hand with what you are saying in that Appalachia is chock full of older folks.

  Dems should be able to win both areas since Social Security and Health Care are huge issues with alot of Appalachia and older folks, and McCain just sucks on these issues.

  by whereisboblafollette on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:11:29 AM PDT

  •  Thats a GREAT post

    I'm sorry I missed it yesterday. Along with age, its important to look at the fact that people are leaving Appalachia in droves. The coalfields are one of the few places in the region where population is declining.

    

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:14:05 AM PDT

•  As someone who lives in Appalachian Tennessee

  I am very impressed with your diary. A couple of points about Tennessee: First, I'm pretty sure our Governor Phil Bredesen is a Dem (I didn't see you mention it.) Secondly, we came close to electing a Dem for Senator in 2006, not juts any Dem, but a young, up-and-coming, talented black man named Harold Ford who, whatever you may think of him, has served Congress from this state for many years. Also, let's not forget that Tennessee is the home of Al Gore and that he and his family still live here. (I know, I know, Gore didn't carry his own state in 2000, what can I tell you. I think it was a reaction from Clinton's Monica Lewinsky days) Also, to say that Clinton carried Tennessee in 92 and 96 is somewaht inaccurate. I think it's closer to the truth to say that Gore carried Tennessee in 92 and 96.

  So, my state is a mixed bag. There is a heavy African American presence in the Memphis area which can be increased and activated even further through the Vote for Change effort. Middle Tennessee hovers around Nashville, which can be pretty liberal, what with all the music super stars that live there. It is an up-and-coming area for business and many people from all over the country are transferring to Nashville to work for various companies.

  I live in East Tennessee. Our capitol city is Knoxville. This is Appalachia here. Knoxville represents the modernization of Appalachia. Yhis is another up-and-coming area with many corporations relocating to the city. It's a family friendly easy place to live with lots of fun things to do, a thriving music scene of it's own, an ever-growing alternative-health community, some of the best hospitals in the region, alternative newspapers, lots of small thriving businesses.

  I live east of Knoxville in Sevier County. We're the home of Gatlinburg, the gateway city to the Smoky Mountains National Park. We're also home of Dollywood - Tennessee's only major theme park (it's actually a nice place - attractions, rides, music, shows, lots of flowers). Our little county hosts something like 12 to 14 million tourists each year (we're also a major shopping destination with at least six big discount malls). I'm not a Tennessee native - I'm from Wisconsin. There are a lot of transplants here who left the frigid north because of weather. Some are called "half backs" due to the fact that they left the rust belt or the upper midwest, moved to Florida, found it too hot and then moved "half the way back."

  My point is that Tennessee, like most of Appalachia, is a mixed bag with great potential for Democrats. Some suggestions to the Obama team regarding Tennessee in the general election.

  First, talk to Harold Ford. He knows the lay of the land here politically. Second, get the Governor involved. If you have a Dem Governor, you might as well use him. Third, think regionally. Here's some specific ideas. In Memphis, invoke the legacy of Martin Luther King, Jr. After all, he was assasinated there and there is great feeling about him. In Nashville, get some country music people to support the candidacy. In Knoxville, focus on the Vols (the Tennessee Volunteers). Knoxville is the home of the University of Tennesse and the whole city is mad about the Vols. And here we're speaking both the football team and the basketball teams, especially the National Champion Lady Vols. When you come to Knoxville wear orange. The University of Tennesse is affectionately known as "Big Orange."

  Finally, over here in points east of Knoxville, get involved in some way, shape or form with Dolly Parton, the reigning queen of east Tennessee. I don't know if she would support Barack's candidacy (or any candidate) but there are charities and other activites promoted by Dolly that one could mention and help.

  And let's not forget upper eastern Tennessee (on the Virginia border) with Bristol, the home of some of the first ever country music recordings (the "Bristol Sessions") and one of the homes and strongholds of NASCAR and the Bristol Speedway.

  To win Tennessee, be sure to visit the County Music Hall of Fame, the Grand Ole Opry, Dollywood and similar places of interest. Go to a NASCAR race, eat barbecure (Memphis is the home of the best barbecue in the country), and make appearances at churches. In Tennessee, there's a church on every corner. I'm sure many of them would love to hear Barack speak.

  by ccr4nine on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:23:04 AM PDT

  •  Will you make this a diary?

    It deserves thoughts and comments of its own! I'm originally from hamilton county (near cleveland/dayton), so we are neighbors, and I want as many folks to read what you said as possible.

    by faithfull on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:32:40 AM PDT

•  maybe appalachia is losing its dominance

  due to some new politics and new metrics.  

  at any rate, i don't think anyone is counting appalachia out... but i do expect appalachia to come along.  there is no excuse for blatant racism and religious intolerance to thrive within our society - something must change, and it's NOT to pander better to the racist/religiously intolerant camp.

  i don't know what the answer is, but i have a feeling the metric is changing.

  by jj24 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:43:14 AM PDT