For those of you who have not done so, you must spend a little time on Chris Bowers' site at mydd.com - in particular:
http://www.mydd.com/outlook/president
He has a very sound methodology that he explains in great detail and that considers the historical evidence of how undecided voters break in incumbent presidential re-election races since 1972. Based on that and an average of selected polls (he excludes some of them, based on sound criteria) - he is currently projecting:
Kerry 49.1
Bush 48.9
Kerry - 311 EVs
Bush - 227 EVs
If this doesn't put a smile on your face and a skip in your step, nothing will.
CAVEAT - A lot of states are still close and the Repubs are crooks, so we MUST keep working hard and watching them like a hawk to bring this home. But as of now, we are WINNING! Now let's finish the job.