Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 20 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Independence Hall. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
This time, we look at PENNSYLVANIA.
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
It was James Carville who famously described Pennsylvania as "Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other end, and Alabama in the middle". Closer to the real truth, West Pennsylvania has about five counties hugging the Ohio border from Pittsburgh to Lake Erie; they’re a lighter and more potentially swing shade of blue than East Pennsylvania. Philadelphia is deep, deep blue; the suburbs somewhat less so, and the northeast a little lighter than that, with many of the votes concentrated in numerous working class cities like Scranton, Allentown, Bethlehem and Wilkes-Barre. In the middle, you have a lot of mountain territory with few people and a few little islands of blue at State College, Harrisburg and Hershey, the chocolate city. The people here are socially conservative but economically liberal, and should respond better than usually to Democrats during a tough economic year. An exception is Lancaster County, which I discuss in more detail when we get to the 16th Congressional district, below.
BLOGS: Keystone Politics is a good blog with more facts and news than partisan zeal. Very highly recommended for anyone who cares about the region. Also of note are Pensyltucky Politics, focused on turning the most conservative part of the state bluer, and Grassroots PA for a blog focused on—you guessed it—the all-important grassroots level. Keystone Politics’ front page has links to several other PA-centered blogs as well.
http://www.keystonepolitics.com/
http://blog.pennlive.com/...
http://grassrootspa.com/
PRESIDENT: : Likely Obama, and pretty much the only northeastern state other than the special case of West Virginia, that is not yet a certain Obama win. I like it that he’s campaigning with Clinton there now. Hopefully he can sew it up by convention time, and then he’ll be able to spend the entire general election at work in states that Bush carried twice.
SENATORS, GOVERNORS AND OTHER STATEWIDE: No Senate seats. We get a shot at Snarlin’ Arlen Spectre in two years.
Governor Rendell is calling it quits in 2010, and we’ll have an interesting and crucial fight to keep his job for the Democrats. But that’s for another year.
Other statewide contests in 2008 include John Morganelli’s fight to replace the incumbent GOP Attorney General; Jack Wagner’s bid for re-election as Auditor General; and the open seat for State Treasurer (currently Dem), in which our nominee is Rob McCord. Currently the last two lean Democrat, while the incumbent Gooper AG leads. Check out the sites of these three Democrats, as any of them, if they win, could be on the map for Governor.
http://www.johnmorganelli.com/
http://www.jackwagner.org/
http://www.mccordforpennsylvania.com/
STATE LEGISLATURE: THE BIG ONE for 2008, since the Congressional races are by and large unlikely to flip in either direction, and because flipping the state legislature will enable us to draw new and better districts for both Congress and the legislature.
State House of Representatives: 102 D, 101 R, with a compromise government in which a Republican is Speaker of the House. We’ll need to expand on this one, and the odds are good that we can. All 203 seats are up.
State Senate: currently 21D, 29R, with staggered four year terms. Half of the Senate is up in 2008, with 14 GOP-held seats up and 11 Democratic seats. We need to take four seats to tie, and five for the win. It’s challenging, but possible.
With Governor Rendell term-limited in 2010, it is possible that we could hold the entire redistricting trifecta, or none of it.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a snoozer compared to other states like neighboring Ohio. The eight most notable contests—five R and three D—are all second tier or lower (that’s districts 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15 and 18).
District 1—Bob Brady (D)—Safe Dem
District 2—Chaka Fattah (D)—Safe Dem. These two Philadelphia based districts are the safest in the state
District 3—Kathy Dahlkemper (D) v. Philip English (Inc R). This district includes Erie, in the northwestern part of the state, and is maybe the hottest contest in the state. It’s definitely winnable on paper, and Erie voters are definitely getting tired of English. The problem is that Steve Porter, who failed to gain the seat as a Democrat last time around, and who is showing signs of "frequent kooky candidate syndrome", is running as an independent and threatening to spoil our chances. Even so, we have a shot here.
http://kathydahlkemperforcongress.com/
District 4—Jason Altmire (Inc D) v. Missy Hart (R). Likely Dem. Republicans say they have a chance to steal back the seat they lost in 2006; I say Hart, the former holder of the seat made a bad mistake. This is a blue district to begin with. Altmire got a late surge that put him over the top in 2006, and he’s certainly going to do better than that as an incumbent in a Dem wave year. Hart’s best bet would have been to wait another term and bet that President Obama would get bogged down cleaning up Bush’s mess and have a bad midterm election in 2010. Under those conditions, the right Republican might have a chance in the 4th; by running and losing in 2008, Hart will establish herself as a two-time loser to Altmire, and probably end her political career and become another hate-spewer on FOX.
http://www.jasonaltmire.com/
District 5—Mark McCracken (D). Leans R. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t put this big north-central-PA district on the map, but it is open this year, and McCracken, a popular Clearfield County Commissioner, is running a good race and a smart one, doing and saying the things he’s supposed to in order to make the rural folks consider going Democrat for the first time in a generation. This district does contain the blue oasis of State College, without a cohesive Republican center. Winning here means visiting lots and lots of rural outposts, shaking a lot of hands, and reassuring a lot of people that we don’t intend to take their guns.
http://www.mccrackenforcongress.com/
District 6—Bob Roggio (D) v. James Gerlach (R) Leans R. This is the only Philly suburb district still in GOP hands. Lois Murphy came close in the last couple elections, but Gerlach is still there and the DCCC may be looking away from the 6th and in favor of the 3rd and 15th for expansion of our majority this time. If we don’t take the 6th by 2010 and are able to redistrict in our favor, look for this to be the first district dropped from Pennsylvania.
http://www.bobroggioforcongress.com/...
District 7—Joe Sestak (D) Safe Dem. Of Pennsylvania’s four freshmen Democrats, Sestak is the easiest bet for another term.
District 8—Patrick Murphy (Inc D) v. Tom Manion (R). Likely Dem. Murphy won this district, at the opposite end of the Philly suburbs from Sestak, in 2006. Democrats have been running a lot of Iraq veterans and their families in opposition to Republicans; here’s a rare case in which the GOP is running the father of a soldier killed in action (apparently on a "we must stay in Iraq so our casualties haven’t died for nothing" sort of platform). It’s an interesting choice, and we’ll have to see what comes of it. This one could heat up, but for now, I’m not especially worried.
http://www.murphy08.com/
District 9— Tony Barr (D) v. Willian Shuster (Inc R). I’m glad Tony Barr continues to run in the most conservative district in the regional northeast. No one expects him to win the seat, but he’s perhaps the strongest candidate the 9th district Democrats have to offer, and he did a great job in 2006 pinning Shuster down within the district so that Democrats like Altmire and Murphy could win. If he does that again, it will be a noble fight. Plus, if the 9th pinks and purples over time, it will be that much easier to win the statewide contests. Fight everywhere.
http://tonybarr2008.com/
District 10—Chris Carney (Inc D) v. Christopher Hackett (R) Leans Dem. This district was gerrymandered pro-GOP in 2002, and Carney got his foot in the door due to the previous incumbent’s personal scandals. This is one of ten or so districts where we really do need to play defense. If Carney is re-elected in 2008 and 2010, we can add Scranton back where it came from in time for 2012, and he’ll be safer.
http://www.carneyforcongress.com/
District 11—Paul Kanjorski (Inc D) v. Some guy who looks like Nathan Petrelli from "Heroes", on an episode when he’s being more coldly calculating than usual (R). Safe Dem.
This is one of those bottom tier districts that Republicans sometimes point to when completely desperate. In 2006, they claimed to be within striking distance in places like WA-02 and WV-01, which of course didn’t go anywhere. This year, they’re eyeing a long-term incumbent whose district they made MORE safe for Democrats in an attempt to concentrate blue voters and gain advantages in the neighboring 10th, 15th and 17th districts—and they decided the thing to do was nominate a "REAL conservative" to run on a platform of Scary Brown People! Good luck with that, Petrelli.
District 12—John Murtha (D)—from SW PA, and who ain’t going nowhere. Safe Dem.
District 13—Allyson Schwartz (D)—from the Philly suburbs, who also ain’t going nowhere. Safe Dem.
District 14—Mike Doyle (D). A safe seat for the gentleman from Pittsburgh.
District 15— Sam Bennett (D) v. Charles Dent (Inc R). Leans R.
Bennett is the Alentown Democratic Chair and is within striking distance of taking out the incumbent in the blue-leaning Lehigh valley. She’s also yet another example of how our candidates are better looking—and needs more photos on her website.
http://www.bennett2008.com/
District 16— Bruce Slater (D) v. Joe Pitts (Yes, really) (Inc. R)
This district isn’t on the map right now. It includes Lancaster County, which is Amish Central. I’ve always been intrigued about whether the Amish vote in large numbers in elections outside their own insular communities, and if so, how they would vote. The Bush Administration in 2004 made a big thing about targeting Amish voters (which made me LOL at the thought of President Scrappy Doo getting more and more frustrated at the failure of his Amish phone bank project) on the grounds that they personify "traditional values". On the other hand, they also embody pacifism to the highest degree I’ve ever seen, and it’s hard to see how such a people would support the party of pre-emptive, world-dominating war. From this distance, the Amish command my respect for their effectiveness in pacticing what they preach and in being true to themselves regardless of what the outside world does, and I’d like to think they’d be a voting force for the good guys.
Other than that, the only thing I know about Lancaster is an ugly, ugly court case from the early 1990s in which a court found compelling grounds to overturn a woman’s murder conviction on the grounds of actual innocence—and the result was an outraged campaign in Lancaster (which did not involve the Amish at all, but the "English" nearby) to get that judge removed from office. Not because they were certain the woman was guilty, but because overturning the conviction might discredit the reputation of the police. Didn’t a guy named Zola have something to say about that a century or so ago?
If that’s what people think in Lancaster, we’ve got some work to do turning this district.
http://www.slaterforcongress.com/
District 17—Tim Holden (Inc D) v. Tony Gilhooley (R). I forget whether Gilhooley is known from the Buttafucco scandal or the Tonya Harding scandal. Either way, he’s gonna get kneecapped in November. Safe Dem.
District 18—Steve O’Donnell (D) v. Tim Murphy (Inc. R). So many Murphys—Lois, Pat, Tim. In the 18th, they stuffed every Republican they could find into a district that looks like gerrymander roadkill, and it paid off. We’ve had some close races here over the decade, but haven’t made it yet. This year, our standard bearer is Steve O’Donnell, a navy veteran. Let’s show him a little love.
http://www.electodonnell.com/
District 19—Phil Avillo (D) v. Todd Platts (Inc R). Likely R. Our efforts are proving disappointing in some of the districts where we ought to have a fighting chance. In contrast, the 19th is unwinnable on paper, and yet Avillo is doing surprisingly well on the strength of a lot of heart and a strong grassroots effort. This has some sleeper potential.
http://www.avilloforcongress.com/...
REDISTRICTING Pennsylvania: It’s going to be iffy, but if we can hold the statehouse and the lower house, and get and keep those five flipped seats in the Senate, we will have the trifecta in redistricting. We’ve seen how they managed to gerrymander the state to be 7-12 Republican in 2002. We got some of that back on our own by winning four seats in 2006; we could end up limiting their influence to a 4-R delegation in 2012.
Pennsylvania is divided into three parts, with five districts (3, 4, 12, 14 and 18) in the west; four (5, 9, 16 and 19) in the Republican middle, and the remaining 10 in the east (1, 2, 6, 7, 8 and 13 in the Philly metro area and 10, 11, 15 and 17 to the north). We might lose one or two seats in the next redistricting, and there is ample room to ensure that they are both Republican seats, depending on which ones flip in the meantime.
The primary redistricting question is whether to reduce western PA to four solid Democratic districts by eliminating the 18th entirely, or to keep all five and redraw the lines to make them all lean Democratic. The second option will NOT make them all safe. If PA loses more than one seat, option one is pretty much mandatory.
One district will be lost in East PA, either the 6th or the 15th, depending on which of those, if either, we can capture by then. Scranton should be put back into the 10th, which should lose some of its western tail.
The four central PA districts (5, 9, 16 and 19), unless demographics change, are probably unalterably Republican and should be treated as such (I’ll be delighted, though, if McCracken or one of the other Dems here can prove me wrong) by concentrating Republicans and putting such blue islands as State College into the blue districts on the ends. It can easily be arranged so that these four are the ONLY GOP-occupied districts in Pennsylvania. In my opinion, trying to eliminate one of these or redraw it to make it blue should only be done if we have ALREADY captured ALL FOUR of the swing districts now held by Republicans (3, 6, 15 and 18)—if we can pull that one off by 2011, it will be a sign of a sea change in PA politics and grounds to re-evaluate the middle. The one to try eliminating would be the 19th (divided in thirds between the other three, which would lose their less-red edges); the one to try to redraw Democratic would be the 5th.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...