I was having lunch today with a pretty astute watcher of politics, and he raised one of the more interesting questions surrounding this race: even if Kerry wins NH -- even if he wins by double-digits -- what then? He's got limited staff in the upcoming states, and his checking account has gotta be close to running on empty. Meanwhile, a Dean second-place finish sets up a big comeback on Feb 3, as Dean has the money and Feb 3 organization necessary to dominate the multi-state contest. My lunch partner seemed to believe that Edwards would have much the same problem as Kerry (except insofar as Edwards obviously has a great SC org). And when you look at the race
right now, my lunchmate sounds pretty accurate -- Kerry and Edwards have to be scraping the bottom of the barrel. Edwards has been rumored to be near broke for some time, with staffers going unpaid for weeks.
But
both the Johns are raising money at a brisk clip in the wake of their Iowa performances. Maybe it's just enough to keep them going, but that's all they need to do right now. And both are now getting their fair share of the free media that Dean has had to himself for months. Unlike Dean, they might not be able to stand a downturn in their electoral fortunes -- they need the buzz to stay high to keep the money coming in, to keep their mugs on the network news. But if Kerry wins NH, and Edwards takes a strong third (or even fourth), they'll keep their buzz -- and they'll be able to raise enough and get enough free media to stay one cent ahead of oblivion, at least through Feb 3.
Of course, the day that one of them falters, that'll be it for him. But at least one of them should be able to put together a run that allows them to overcome their organizational and financial inferiority. And that's why Dean doesn't have the thing wrapped up, despite his infrastructural superiority.
Or am I wrong? Can a consistent Dean eventually outlast the campaigns that are staying just one cent over the line, and win the nomination through attrition? I'd say no, as both the Johns should be able to beat Dean in the later multi-state television primaries, due to their superior TV personas and media people. But it's possible that Dean could just outlast. To do that, he'll need better ads.