I really hope the press will be more than just parrots this time around. Reported in Bloomberg yesterday:
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) Iran is on a path toward a "major breakthrough" in its nuclear program that is "unacceptable," Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz told a Washington audience today.
"It is an existential threat," Mofaz said at a forum on Iran at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "We have to make sure we are prepared for every option."
Mofaz, a former Israeli army chief of staff, is a potential future leader of Israel because of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's planned departure from office. Mofaz is competing with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni for control of the ruling Kadima party after Olmert said July 30 that he won't compete in the party's Sept. 17 primary amid a corruption scandal.
Don't get me wrong, Iran could very well pose an existential threat to the motherland, but I refer you to the following recycled--but highly enriched--material:
January 5, 1995
Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. and Israeli Officials Fear
By CHRIS HEDGES, NYTimes
Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought, and could be less than five years away from having an atomic bomb, several senior American and Israeli officials say. "The date by which Iran will have nuclear weapons is no longer 10 years from now," a senior official said recently, referring to previous estimates. "If the Iranians maintain this intensive effort to get everything they need, they could have all their components in two years. Then it will be just a matter of technology and research. If Iran is not interrupted in this program by some foreign power, it will have the device in more or less five years."
(snip)
Iran, like Iraq, was to have been isolated by severe sanctions in a policy described by Administration officials as "dual containment." But senior Administration officials interviewed in Washington said their efforts had failed to halt the flow of nuclear technology to Iran.
Fast forward to 2000.
Similar sanctions are in place as existed in 1995 with the exception of some slight easing by Clinton in response to the election of Khatami, a reformist.
When U.S. President Bill Clinton came into office, he initially took a tough approach with Iran as part of his "dual containment" policy against that country and Iraq and imposed sanctions, Slavin said. But when Mohammad Khatami was unexpectedly elected president of Iran in 1997 and said in a CNN interview that he wanted to "break down the bulky wall of mistrust between the two countries," Clinton welcomed the possible rapprochement.
Slavin said Clinton sent a message to the Iranians through the Saudis to arrange a meeting between high-level officials from the two countries. But Clinton received no reply from Khatami. Clinton tried again by slightly easing sanctions against Iran, and Secretary of State Madeline Albright publicly apologized for the United States' role in Iran's 1953 coup and for siding with Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War.
Fast forward to 2003.
In a direct repudiation of Clinton's appeasement efforts, Iran never did develop those nukes. According to a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that the US would release in early 2008, Iran had halted their nuclear weapons program by 2003.
Fast forward to 2008.
After the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was released, Israel publicly challenged the U.S. intelligence consensus that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program. "In our opinion," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, Iran "has apparently continued that program."
(snip)
But in private conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, the president all but disowned the document, said a senior administration official who accompanied Bush on his six-nation trip to the Mideast. "He told the Israelis that he can’t control what the intelligence community says, but that (the NIE’s) conclusions don’t reflect his own views" about Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, said the official, who would discuss intelligence matters only on the condition of anonymity.
The same way he couldn't control the National Intelligence Estimates regarding Iraq? Or pressure Tenet et al. to tailor its findings?
The New Yorker’s Seymour Hersh said, "The Israelis were very upset about the report. They think we’re naive, they don’t think we get it right. And so they have a different point of view."
But after his private meetings with Bush this week, Olmert — asked whether he felt reassured — replied, "I am very happy."
Rewind to 2002.
David Kay, former Iraq Weapons inspector, characterizes the 2002 NIE on Iraq and WMDs:
I think it was a poor job, probably the worst of the modern NIE's, partly explained by the pressure, but more importantly explained by the lack of information they had. And it was trying to drive towards a policy conclusion where the information just simply didn't support.
Fast forward back to this election cycle.
Like I said, I really hope the media will be more than just parrots this time around.
In an interesting side note,the markets react:
Oil climbed more than $4 a barrel in intraday trading as Mofaz's comments fueled speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack Iran.