Now that folks have had a chance to digest the numbers that have come out it seems an ideal time to delve into the facts behind those numbers.
Dean:
Pros:
Proves beyond a shadow of a doubt: "You have to spend money to make money." Dean's investment of $8.8 million not only yields him a net gain of $6 million but also helped to blunt the effect on his campaign of Clark's entrance into the race. Further it has helped him to maintain a competitive edge in the Iowa Caucus and more importantly helped him crush the opposition in NH to acheive an impressive 17 point lead over nearest rival Kerry. Has also expanded ground operations into many other states and additionally he increased nationwide presence has helped him amass a horde of volunteers (read: very very cheap labor; although I'm not sure how many more people can fit in the Flophouse).
Cons:
Spent $8.8 million.
Increased size of campaign staff along with further increases in the next quarter will continue to cost alot of money. To prevent negative media spin will have to again exceed Q3 receipts.
Kerry:
Pros:
Comes in 2nd in fundraising receipts, maintains second place in cash on hand.
Cons:
Total receipts decline 32% from Q2.
His top advisors are probably asking themselves what $7.1 million bought him. Answer, not a whole lot. All I can see is that it bought him some time (how much is truly hard to say). Additionally, his foray into online organizing has cost him a lot of money and as of yet has not born the fruit that Governor Dean easily picks off the vine.
Gephardt:
Pros:
Moves to 3rd place in both total receipts and cash on hand. Doesn't experience decline in fundraising like Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman. Wisely spent money puts him in far better position in Iowa than most think and so too South Carolina.
Cons:
Has not meaningfully expanded ground operations in states beyond IA, NH, and SC (admittedly he has the luxury of leaving organization in other states to the 17 unions that have thus far endorsed him) and will need to spend more money on ground operations in later primary states if he wants to remain a contender.
Lieberman:
Pros:
Beats Edwards and Clark in fundraising.
Cons:
Spent it all. Has lower cash on hand than Edwards. Receipts declined 29% continuing downward spiral with no real hope of increase in the foreseeable future. $200,000 less would have put him below Clark and would have ended his campaign.
Clark:
Pros:
Can point to $250,000 per day. Comes just barely behind Lieberman.
Cons:
Most of money received was pre-prepared for harvesting by Draft Movement; additional money will recquire a lot more work. Will have to spend immense amounts of money in Q4 to catch up to other candidates and will probably be living hand to mouth. Barring extreme drop off in fundraising among other candidates will continue to spend money as soon as he gets it leaving very, very little room for a mis-step.
Edwards:
Pros:
After long thought I am having great difficulty coming up with something. But here goes: He has catapulted to the lead in South Carolina and is setting up serious organization in Oklahoma.
Cons:
Receipts declined 54% from Q2. Only raises $400,000 more than Kucinich. His campaign is best characterized as 4 steps foward followed immediately by 4 steps back.
Of Note: Kucinich raises $2.1 million.
Conclusion:
Dean is in great shape but really has to work some "mechanics" on the expectations game so he can have a Happy New Year in the press.
Kerry may have to cut costs or spend more time raising money and less time actually campaigning, neither of which helps his candidacy.
Gephardt, all bias aside, he is in the best shape of the candidates save Dean. Needs to learn from Dean and boost his money. An interesting development in Labor politics will probably help but more on that in a later article (please excuse the shameless teaser but like "K Street" I have to keep people thirsting for more).
Lieberman is in an even more serious bind. With no new money coming in and a struggling candidacy that now pins all of its hopes on Arizona where he faces stiff competition from Clark, Dean and Kerry I can safely say that he will make his exit after February 3rd.
Clark will probably be fine but will as mentioned above not have the leeway afforded to the candidates who have more cash on hand.
Edwards will stick it out. He'll probably get a fundraising bump from South Carolina and Oklahoma but if trends don't abate he will continue to struggle.