As predicted here with no joy (see my prior diaries) Ohio is going for the Palin bait more decidedly than any surrounding swing state. Rasmussen now polls Ohio at McCain 51, Obama 44, changed from M-48, O-43 in August. That's 9 points worse than Pennsylvania, and 5 points worse than Virginia. Clearly, Palin has pulled many undecideds off the fence onto her side in Ohio, leaving little wiggle room.
Denial trolls have already come out in force to reassert the flatness of the earth. They point to an outlier Rasmussen poll from July, one that they themselves refuted at the time, to claim that Obama now is doing better (ignoring the Ras August poll, and the big reduction in undecideds). Others assert that if Obama only "stays the course" his Ohio numbers will surely rebound, perhaps if we bring the Clintons in, or send Ted Strickland to lecture his hometown pals one more time. Why not send Jesse Jackson in, or Geraldine Ferraro, or anyone else who has savaged Obama in the state? More bright ideas?
Ohio-haters, on the other hand, are claiming the problem is racism. It' the easy thing to do. Funny how Ohio school kids, who grow up taking pride in our state's preeminent role in the Underground Railroad, turn out more racist than the neighbors in Michigan and Pennsylvania, who played a lesser role. It's also funny how so many undecideds take so long to decide that they are racists, and how those racists keep swinging back and forth about their bigotry.
Clearly, a large number of kossacks are low-information voters when it comes to Ohio. So allow me to spread some enlightenment: There is no problem with racism in Ohio relative to other Great Lakes states. The problem in Ohio, which is very real, is as follows: Ohio is a machine state, with extraordinary levels of political corruption in both the Republican and Democratic Parties.
The Democratic machine, led by Governor Ted Strickland, did an unforgivable hatchet job on Barack Obama in the primary. The Obama campaign then compounded that problem by embracing the machine without qualification, simultaneously dropping the call for "new politics." Voters noticed that coincidence.
On top of that, Barack never traveled to the south central portion of the state, where the largest percentage of Ohio swing voters reside. And to make matters even worse, he sent Ted Strickland, the boss of old politics in Ohio, into the region as a surrogate.
Detecting the opening, the GOP grabbed a young, vibrant, rural spokesmodel for anti-corruption politics as its VP nominee. They debuted her in Dayton, and packed her first two big speeches with cameo appeals to southern Ohio. Palin promised to pick up the baton of new politics that Obama had conspicuously dropped. And boy can she twirl that baton.
And how did the Obama capaign respond? They sent Ted Strickland on a surrogate tour of southern Ohio YET AGAIN, to remind the voters that the old machine really does hold the urban neophyte from Chicago in its grasp. "I want to wrap my emotional and political arms around Barack Obama," said Strickland in Pike County last week. I bet. It's the hug of death for independent and disaffected voters, intended as such.
Now what part of the Buckeye harvest for the McCain-Palin ticket do you fail to understand?
I fear a lot, so let's back up and have a chat about southern Ohio,
land of legendary political machinations, where the Democratic Party has been known to rig the ballot box for Republicans, where Republicans stay cleaner only because they more frequently land in jail, and where Barack Obama certainly faces his most complicated challenge.
Ambrose Beirce acquired the self-education for his Devil's Dictionary in southern Ohio. Accordingly, Beirce defined a politician as ""An eel in the fundamental mud upon which the superstructure of organized society is reared." Some even advertise their fundamentalism as a virtue for vice.
America's hero in the sequins and white hat, Roy Rogers, also came from southern Ohio, reared on Duck Run, which may have been named in consideration of the many political murders that have happened in the area. (The general instruction is "Duck! Run!") Ted Strickland also grew up on that same country road, it so happens, though he never acquired the literal marksmanship skills that propelled Roy to stardom.
Roy Rogers was not his real name, of course. "Roy" was short for "royal," an allusion to his title, "King of the Cowboys," and "Rogers" came from Buck Rogers, the fictional hero he displaced. Roy's real name was Leonard Slye, more suited to a black-hat kind of guy. Which is only to say that not everything is what it seems in the rolling hills.
To help unpack the political culture of this most important terrain, I offer a little quiz, with answers that follow, so you need not cheat by visiting the website of the Ohio Election-Stealing Hall of Fame (admittedly, I made that up).
Here's the quiz:
- What has been the classic means by which elections are stolen in Ohio? (Hint: no type of balloting machine guards against the technique.)
- What is the overriding factor that determines the distribution of political jobs in a machine-run rural county?
- Where is the Highway to Nowhere? (Hint: It connects to the Bridge to Nowhere at nowhere in particular.)
- What single fact most accounts for the similarity in political culture between southern Ohio and Alaska? (Hint: It's not the salmon.)
- What is the oldest continuously functioning political machine in Ohio, and probably in the nation? (Hint: Ohio Governor Ted Strickland hails from Lucasville.)
- Who chaired the first Democratic National Convention in 1832? (Hint: see previous hint.)
- Why was the state roll call at the 2008 Democratic National Convention stopped at New Mexico, which deferred to Illinois and New York?
Answers:
- Welfare recipients are told that to remain on the county welfare rolls, they must request and sign absentee ballots, then turn them in unmarked to township trustees or county commissioners. Since most low-income counties are Democratic Party bastions, the technique has mostly been employed by Democrats, but often on behalf of national Republican candidates.
- Whether the candidate comes from a reliable family and needs health insurance.
- It's in Ohio, of course -- four lanes of largely unused asphalt that stretch about 140 miles from Newtown to Athens, called the Appalachian Highway. Generally credited to Vernal G. Riffe, Democratic czar of the Ohio House of Representatives for more than twenty years, who wanted the constrution jobs for his home district, at the center of the pointless route. Construction of Route 32 destroyed numerous prehistoric arhaeological sites at the epicenter of the Ohio Valley's ancient mound-building civilization. Having supported the Highway to Nowhere, Ohio politicians of the older generation cannot criticize Alaska's Bridge to Nowhere, unless they want to get nowhere fast.
- The heavy reliance on federal funding to prop up the economy, providing endless opportunities for graft. In southern Ohio that includes federal highway construction, fedaral economic aid through the Appalachian Regional Commission, the massive federal nuclear reservation at Piketon (now the largest federal toxic remediation project in the country), and the old federal power company built to supply the Piketon plant. In these areas, presidential candidates can't just prommise "economic stimulus" -- they are expected to come across with concrete offers of jobs. The Clintons well undertand this system, and so do John McCain and Sarah Palin. Barack Obama is only learning the ropes.
- Trick hint. It's the Lucas Machine, established by Jacksonian Democrat Robert Lucas, who was elected Ohio Governor in 1832 (and later became the founding governor of Iowa). Lucasville was actually named for his brother, John Lucas. Control of the Lucas Machine passed directly from boss to boss, including George B. Nye of the 1910s and 20s, his son Lieutenant Governor George D. Nye of the 1930s-1950s, Vern Riffe of the 1970s and 80s, and then to current Governor Ted Strickland. The heart of the machine's territory in the lower Scioto Valley is the poorest region in Ohio. It remains the hotbed of bipartisan corruption in the state. Republican Bob Ney, fresh out of prison on corruption charges, represented the district just to the north of Strickland's old district. Republican Geoff Davis, the Kentucky congressman who called Barack Obama "boy," represents the district just to the south, and Jean Schmidt, the congressentity who called Jack Murtha a "coward," represents the district to the west. Democrat-controlled Waverly, at the center of Lucas Machine territory, made the news in 2007 when its police department was caught releasing over a hundred DUI arrestees in exchange for $1000 "contributions." That is still "under investigation."
- The same Robert Lucas. The convention nominated President Andrew Jackson for reelection. Lucas ensured that Ohio went along with the pro-slavery southern Democrats, establishing the tradition of Copperhead Democrats in southern Ohio.
- Because Ohio was coming up on the roll. It would have been strategically smart to have New Mexico cast its ballots, then have New York pass so North Carolina, North Dakota, and Ohio -- all states in play -- could express "unity" support for Obama. Then Oklahoma could have deferred back to New York for the acclimation motion. But someone decided not to have that Ohio display. Ted Strickland sat with Hillary, at her request, during Bill's speech on Tuesday night, just after the presidential roll.
For those unacquainted with a 174-year-old political machine, it's hard to imagine what life under it is like. Spend some time in Belarus or Kazakhstan to get a clue. A homegrown humorous take on the matter was written by Winn Farmer of Piketon, Ohio, and published in the Waverly Watchman Newspaper on March 8, 1923. The following version is abridged for the sake of brevity:
Pike County Go Bragh
I was born in old Pike County
Where the politician grows,
In the bounteous river valley
Where the wild Scioto flows.
In the land of booze and boodle
Where the price of votes is high,
In the land of illegal elections,
In the land of George B. Nye.
I was raised in old Pike County
Where at night the fox horn sounds,
From the hills and from the valleys
Calling to the faithful hounds.
Where each move and plan is studied
While the hounds go dashing by—
When the election day approaches,
In the land of George B. Nye.
Oh! It’s great to live in old Pike County,
Where they vote the year around,
In the land of election contests
Where the floating votes abound.
Where one half will sell their birthright
And the other half will buy,
Where they vote by absent ballot,
In the land of George B. Nye.
Sure, it’s fine to live in old Pike County
Where they vote the ‘Quick and Dead.’
Where they bid ‘em off like chattel
Paying twenty bucks a head.
Where the next year’s supply of bacon
And the winters’ fuel laid by,
With the price they get for votin’,
In the land of George B. Nye.
Yes, it’s fun to live in old Pike county,
Where the honest men are few,
Where the idiot and the moron
Vote, if what they say, is true.
Where the safe won’t hold the ballots—
And the keys fall from on High
In the Judge’s Ermine pocket,
In the land of George B. Nye.
But I’m proud of old Pike County,
My old home, I’ll stand by you.
And I brand these allegations,
False, malicious and untrue.
There may be a few amongst us
Who will cheat and who will lie,
But the most of us are decent,
In the land of George B. Nye.
Let me live and die in old Pike county
Far from turmoil and from strife,
In her dear old hills and valleys
Let me live the simple life.
There amid the scenes so peaceful
Let my spirit rise on high,
From my dear, beloved county,
From the land of George B. Nye.
The ballad was written before George B. Nye's son, George D. Nye (if you get caught, D. Nye it) convinced the federal government to build an artificial lake, Lake White, on the Nye family property, making them millionaires overnight. On the strength of that accomplishment, George D. became Ohio lieutenant governor, a position he used to get the Piketon uranium enrihment plant sited on another piece of Nye ancestral land. When Strickland coes to Pike County now, he nostalgically tells the story of how he got his start in politics at a fundraiser thrown on his behalf at the Lake White Club, in the George D. Nye Lounge.
There's a reportedly true story about Lake White that relates to the local perception of Chicago. Two old-timers were standing and watching the lake fill with water, when the dam was first constructed. One said, "Look, there's waves! We got waves in Pike County!" The other one said, "You think them's waves? You should visit Chicago and see the ocean!"
Which is to say, that if you come from Chicago seeking votes, you better be prepared to prove you're not of a coastal mentality. Barack Obama has so far failed that test, through no fault of his own -- he's been ill-advised.
Sarah Palin passed the test with flying colors. She speaks to these people as one of them, with respect, and that is worth more than any other political credential. What's more, the charges leveled against her are laughablehere. Using her office to try to get an individual fired, you say? Excuse me? From an Ohio perspective, that's a crime? Here, they give and take government jobs as a form of socialized health care or denial, based on your politics or personality, or nothing at all. And who is offering to change that? Who's even talking about it?
Our last governor was ACQUITTED on ethics charges, based on ADMISSIONS of violations far more serious than anything of which Sarah Palin stands accused. So who is going to come tell us to our faces that Sarah is a crooked politician? Bill Clinton? Ted Strickland? Are you starting to see the problem now?
Stuart Rothenberg, whom I detest, yesterday gave some sage advice to Barack Obama:
Obama has not done one thing that I was sure he would do by now -- one thing that could have already improved his prospects in the fall. He needs to find an issue or controversy with which he strongly disagrees with his party -- or with a core Democratic constituency group -- to prove to swing voters that he's not merely another elitist Northern liberal.
Rothenberg phrases that in truly detestable terms, yet he's on to something. Sarah Palin, by just speaking about intra-party reform in her pugnacious student-council president way, raises the bar. Barack Obama cannot get away with pretending that the Democratic Party of Ohio is a high-brow utopia any more. Because we know what utopia means; it means "nowhere," as in "Highway to..."
Barack Obama can win the state of Ohio in 2008. All those offices and staff and GOTV efforts need not go for naught. But there is only one path to victory now, one way to counter Ms. Half-Baked Alaska, and that's to meet her challenge on its terms.
Barack Obama must break free of the Strickland strangle-hold, look southern Ohio in the eye, and say that as President, he's going to clean up Democratic Party corruption in our state.
If he does that, watch the polls rebound.