As some of you know, in the weeks leading up to Barack Obama's inauguration, I examined every formal inaugural address in American history in a five-part series.
In The Inaugural Address, Part 5--What will Obama say?, I speculated on what Obama would include. I'd like to compare that speculation to Obama's actual speech and offer some general analysis of the address as well.
It's below the fold.
First of all, I must admit that I was somewhat surprised that the speech was more somber and less inspirational than I expected. I knew that this was not a campaign speech, but I must admit that its gravitas surprised me a little.
Secondly, I thought Obama would evoke Lincoln since the bicentennial of Honest Abe's birth is coming up in a couple of weeks and because both Obama and Lincoln symbolize the struggle of African Americans to achieve equality. However, Obama spoke not a word about Lincoln.
Thirdly, Obama confirmed that he is a great writer and wordsmith. His phrasing in places is incredibly eloquent. However, he mostly confined his inspirational lines to the beginning and the end. For example, this opening metaphor was beautifully done:
The words [of the oath] have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
The ending is equally outstanding. Obama comes full circle with his opening metaphor and quotes George Washington as well:
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet...it."
America! In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
Don't get me wrong. In between the opening and closing were some beautiful passages, but, while eloquent, they were not aimed at inspiration of the electorate so much as education of the electorate. But Obama managed some excellent turns of phrase:
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them—that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works....
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake.
...for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness.
To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends—honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism—these things are old. These things are true.... What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility....
I promise you, a hundred years from now, people will be quoting this speech.
So, how'd I do with my speculation?
First, I predicted that Obama would include The Immutable Five:
- An expression of humility
- Thanks to the invisible magic spirit
- Praise for a democratic republic
- Thanks to predecessor(s)/Founding Fathers
- American exceptionalism.
Well, I nailed that one. Although there is no direct thanks to the invisible magic spirit, Obama does use these phrases:
God-given
God calls on us
God’s grace upon us
Next, I said that
Obama will note, but not dwell on, the historic significance of the racial barrier he is breaking.
I was pretty much spot on. Obama said:
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed—why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
Third, I said:
Obama will address the economic crisis and the related issues he will fold into that, including climate change, energy independence, infrastructure renewal, health care, foreclosure relief, and jobs. He will express these in general terms, not as a laundry list of legislative proposals.
Well, here it is in Obama's speech:
The state of our economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act—not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. All this we will do.
Then I said:
Fourth, Obama will address foreign policy, reiterating his commitment to withdrawing combat troops from Iraq and establishing new strategies for hot spots around the world. He will emphasize his diplomatic approach to foreign problems, repeating his readiness to negotiate with adversaries without preconditions. He will call for peace in Israel and Palestine but will offer no specifics.
I was mostly right here but not completely. He did repeat his intention to withdraw from Iraq, and he certainly reached out to other countries. However, there was no mention of preconditions or I/P. He also included the strong warning to terrorists that somewhat surprised me.
My next prediction was:
Fifth, I think Obama will address the Constitution and the limits of executive power. I hope he will directly and forcefully call out the abuses of the Bush administration, but I suspect he will only speak in generalities.
I was especially pleased with Obama's tone here. The wonderful line about the "false choice" between safety and ideals that I quoted earlier was pretty direct.
Last, I predicted:
he will call for unity, understanding, bipartisanship, and pragmatism. He has always viewed these as the centerpiece of his political philosophy.
Well, I did pretty well here but missed the "responsibility" meme. He certainly called for unity and espoused a pragmatic position in the line where he says the real concern about government is not its size but whether it works.
As a last stab, I asked and answered several questions:
Will he mention change? Of course. Will he call for hope? For sure. Will he use the "Yes we can" motto? Maybe. But definitely expect some variation on the "red states, blue states" theme.
The truth is that the word change occurs only twice:
For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
However, he did make it clear that
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics.
That was always the essence of the "change" Obama talked about throughout the campaign.
Hope fared better. He used it several times, including when he said we had chosen hope over fear and when he quoted Washington's "hope and virtue" speech. Obviously, he left "Yes we can" out and he did not directly mention "red states, blue states."
So, overall, I give myself a B+ for speculation.
I also predicted that Obama's speech would be regarded as one of the three greatest in American history. Only time will tell on that one. But Obama has some pretty good competition: Lincoln's Second, FDR's First and Second, Wilson's First, Reagan's First, and, of course, JFK's.
I must admit that Obama's speech struck me as maybe too serious and not inspirational enough, but, upon reflection and rereading, I think it was right on target. These are very difficult times and the American people needed to hear this. I think, above all else, Obama wanted us to sober up from the elation of the election and realize that it's going to take lots of hard work, pain, and sacrifice to get the US back on track, and that beautiful, inspiring words alone will be insufficient to achieve that.
Overall, a very fine speech. I can't wait for his Second Inaugural Address!