As rumors heat up that New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg will be appointed Secretary of Commerce, speculation about his replacement is going into overdrive.
In a comment here, Elwood Dowd lays out the possible categories:
- A leading Dem who will run as incumbent in 2010. Meaning, Rep Hodes or Shea Porter.
- A surprise Dem who will run as an incumbent in 2010. Marchand, Katrina Swett, Jay Buckey (all ran for Senate last time until Shaheen entered the race). Or, a yet darker horse: State Sen. Molly Kelly, for example.
- A Dem who will immediately rule out running in 2010: that is, a "seat warmer." There aren't too many options here. I've suggested former Agriculture Commissioner Steve Taylor (who may not want it). Perhaps a retired college professor?
- A moderate/liberal Republican who will immediately rule out running in 2010. I like former Gov. Walter Peterson for that, but he's 86. Warren Rudman's name comes up but he has ruled it out.
- A Republican who would run in 2010.
Options five and two are extremely unlikely, option one only slightly less so. Three and four -- the appointment of a placeholder from either party -- are most likely, and speculation is centering around option four, a moderate/liberal Republican who will rule out running in 2010.
New Hampshire's Concord Monitor lays out some possibilities. Aside from Hodes and Shea-Porter, who are typically mentioned first but judged unlikely:
New Hampshire's bench of former Democrats in Congress who could come out of retirement consists of two: Former senator John Durkin and former representative Dick Swett, whose wife, Katrina, has also aspired to office. (She briefly ran for Senate in 2008 before dropping out when now-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen got in the race and has banked nearly $1 million).
Dick Swett (obligatory pause to contemplate one of the worst politician names ever) seems unlikely given that his wife has had more visible political ambitions in recent years. Durkin was a not-quite-one-term senator in the late 1970s and last ran for office in 1990.
The Republican placeholders most often mentioned are former senator Warren Rudman and former governor Walter Peterson. Rudman has taken his name out of the running, while Peterson, at 86, would be old even for the Senate.
Two more names are in circulation:
Franklin Pierce Law Center Dean John Hutson, a former Republican who endorsed Obama and spoke at the Democratic National Convention, declined to say if he would want the job. "I'm honored and surprised that my name is mentioned," he said in an e-mail. "I have the utmost respect for Senator Gregg and will quote him by saying I have no comment."
In recent years, Hutson has accumulated a strong record of objection to Bush administration policies on detainees and torture. Last summer, at the DNC, he said he had left the Republican party:
Because the Republican Party I once knew has become something different, something I no longer recognize. The "Grand Old Party" is no longer grand. It's just old. The same old, failed policies. The same, old Washington culture. Instead of new ideas and innovation, they offer trillion-dollar tax breaks for the very rich at the expense of the middle class, a deficit out of control and a government unable to help its most vulnerable citizens after Hurricane Katrina.
Instead of inspiring the world with the power of American ideals, they offer war as a first resort, an overstretched military, justification for torture, and trampling of civil liberties. From the invasion of Iraq to the devastation of Katrina, I see arrogance abroad and incompetence at home. And I simply cannot tolerate, and America simply can't afford, more of the same.
Another name mentioned by the Monitor is that of Liz Hager, a former longtime state representative who lost her Republican primary after a group of conservatives joined together to campaign against her. Hager is "proudly pro-choice, proudly pro-government," but her votes on labor issues are mixed. She voted, for instance, against a bill prohibiting employers from requiring employees to attend religious or political meetings. On the other hand, she voted to kill "right to work" legislation.
Hager is paraphrased but not directly quoted implying she would not run in 2010; in any case, her ability to survive a Republican primary would be in question.
Politico mentions the names of Bonnie Newman, Gregg's former Chief of Staff who worked in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, and former Rep. Charlie Bass.
All of this speculation is pointless, of course, if Gregg isn't appointed to Commerce. But it's important to understand that with Lynch making the appointment, an equal focus on Republican possibilities is very much in order. It just better not be anyone who would for one moment consider running in 2010.