Cross posted at slothropia.com.
I meant to put up a reaction to the Liberal decision to support the Harper budget a few days ago, but I was abducted by aliens and they just now dropped me off. It's OK though. My period of captivity gave me a chance to reflect on the situation in Ottawa, for the political dust to settle north of the border and for the Canadian version of the corporate media (incl the CBC) to bloviate itself into a tizzy about how wise is Ignatieff and how silly Jack Layton.
As Monk would say, here's what happened.
- The Conservatives won a plurality of seats in the last election. They then won a confidence vote on the Throne speech.
- In late November, the Harper Finance Minister delivered a financial statement (a mini budget if you will) that included some mean spirited legislation but very little stimulus for an economy which was clearly going to soon be in trouble. There is an old saying; "When the U.S. sneezes, Canada catches a cold." The U.S. has a bad cold, and Canada can expect a case of economic pneumonia.
- With Jack Layton as chief instigator, the three opposition parties declare themselves ready to vote against the Tories in a confidence vote and agree to form a Liberal/NDP coalition, with Bloc support (conditional upon the Governor General inviting the Leader of the Opposition to form a government after the Conservatives were defeated in the House).
- Smelling defeat and the loss of power, Harper persuades the Governor General to prorogue (suspend) Parliament for a month while the Cons write a full budget.
- The Liberal Caucus replaces outgoing Leader Stephane Dion with Michael Ignatieff. They did this for a number of reasons. In short it was awkward to have a lame duck leader when there was talk of forming a government and/or when there is an ongoing political and economic crisis in the land.
- The Conservatives deliver their budget on schedule and on schedule the Liberals declare their willingness to support the budget and the Harper government.
- The other two opposition parties, again with Layton and the NDP in the lead, attack Ignatieff and the Liberals for betraying the coalition and and all Canadians by supporting a budget that did not provide enough economic stimulus and which did not do enough to strengthen Employment Insurance (the Orwellian term for Unemployment Insurance).
- Meanwhile, the Canadian corporate media mainly praises the budget and Ignatieff's capitulation.
Here's an example of the last point from Globe and Mailcolumnist Jeffrey Simpson.
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff did the right thing in supporting the budget rather than trying to force an election or entering that ridiculous arrangement with the NDP and the separatists.
His demand as the price for his party's support - periodic updates on how the budget is working - seems appropriate. Given the unknown ahead, chances are that six months from now, many of the budget's assumptions, and at least some of the programs, are going to need serious adjustment.
And here is Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hebert:
Stephen Harper saved his job as prime minister but the Liberals are the net winners of the extraordinary parliamentary showdown that almost cost the Conservatives their minority government.
Less than four months after they were knocked down to a historical low in the popular vote in a general election, the just-concluded crisis has reset federal politics to their advantage.
Polling since the Tory budget shows little change from before. In Quebec, the Libs are slightly behind the Bloc, with the NDP and Harpers in a virtual tie for third.
The Liberals may have gained in the short term, but there is time before the next election for them to regret Ignatieff's choice. Since Ignatieff's capitulation, the NDP has run a series of radio adsslamming the Liberal Leader for propping up the Tories as Dion had done.
The NDP's strategy is now focused on courting progressive Liberals who had welcomed the Coalition. If that strategy works, the next election (to be held sometime this year, says the smart money) will see a strengthened Liberal Party and NDP with the Tories and Bloc dropping some seats. I would bet heavily against a Liberal majority, but a result like the one I described could lead to a Liberal/NDP working accord, if not a revived coalition that would not need Bloc support.