The other day I wrote News from the Middle East - This is getting interesting, only to be told I was crazy, Netanyahu had this thing all sewn up.
Well, not so much.
Exit polls by Israel's three main television stations on Tuesday night showed Kadima as the leader in the 2009 general elections, with Likud coming a narrow second.
The Channel 1 poll gave Kadima 30 seats, Likud 28 seats, and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu is predicted to win `14 seats, according to the poll.
Turnout was heavier than expected.
The big news is obviously the lead by Kadima, left for dead just a week ago. But perhaps the bigger news is 13 seats for Labor.
So now what?
Well, according to The Jerusalem Post, Livni might not be able to form a government:
However, due to the dramatic rise in support of the Likud and Israel Beiteinu, it seemed that Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu would have a better chance than Kadima head Tzipi Livni of forming the next coalition.
...
Once the final results of the election are known, President Shimon Peres will begin a round of consultations with party leaders, to hear who they are recommending for prime minister. In the past, the task of forming a coalition has been given to the head of the largest party. But election legislation gives Peres wide leeway, and he can grant the first opportunity to the party leader who he judges has the best chance in forming a government, even if that party did not earn the most mandates in the election.
Remember, the Jerusalem Post is conservative, so that can be taken as much as advice to Peres to lead with Netanyahu as analysis that Livni might not be able to form a coalition. The Post also offers an "analysis," entitled A decisive president's possible dilemma:
Where Peres would have a certain dilemma is if the final tally shows Kadima as the largest party, but Netanyahu the favored prime minister of most of the new intake of MKs. Here, too, though Peres's decision should be relatively straightforward: Netanyahu would be given the first chance to build a government.
That dilemma would deepen considerably, however, if Kadima is the biggest party, Netanyahu gets more support than Livni from the various party chiefs with whom Peres consults, but that support for Netanyahu falls short of the 61 seats that constitute a Knesset majority. Who, then, would the president choose to form a coalition? Would his path through these uncharted waters be informed by the fact that Livni's Israeli-Palestinian vision is far closer than Netanyahu's to his own? Which other factors might guide him?
In this context, it is worth noting that neither Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beiteinu nor United Torah Judaism has publicly stated which would-be prime minister it will back. Lieberman, of course, has prime ministerial aspirations of his own.
The Knesset has 120 seats. Kadima and Labor will, if the exit polls hold true, start with 43.
The Arab vote could offset the vote from the extreme right.
If the polls hold true, Avigdor Lieberman, controlling 14 seats, will be the most important player in deciding the next Prime Minister of Israel.
Just a few mostly random thoughts and links, as this story unfolds.
I told you this was going to be interesting.
From Haaretz (click for the link, and a better picture):