Recently I made fun of Stephen R. McNamara, a Sayfie Review columnist, for his wild speculations about the 2010 elections here in Florida. I thought they were so crazy I accused him of smoking crack.
CROSS POSTED FROM FLAPOLITICS.COM
The topsy-turvy scenario he envisioned centered on Gov. Charlie Crist jumping in the US Senate race. From a personal political calculation this seemed like an incredibly foolish move on the Governor's part, so I summarily dismmissed it.
But I'm beginning to realize that I might be making the same kind of mistake that Alan Greenspan made in not anticipating the behavior of the people who run the financial world.
I'M ASSUMING CHARLIE CRIST IS A RATIONAL ACTOR!!
As soon as I became aware of the potential fallacy of that proposition, the conclusion was obvious.
OF COURSE HE'S GONNA RUN!
He wants the juice he'd get for being the savior of the party in Florida. When he first replaced Jeb Bush in the Governor's post Crist got unanimous editorial accolades for bringing a new tone of bipartisanship and government service to the state. The guy likes the applause.
So imagine how good it's feeling to have big name Republicans courting him now.
Here's the bottom line. Jeb Bush crapped out in putting his butt on the line to save the party here in Florida. But guess who'll come to the rescue, AGAIN, to clean up Jeb's mess. Why our own political superhero, Governor Suntan!
Now, as many have already pointed out, this would actually be the best of all possible worlds for the Democrats. Nationally they don't need to pick up this particular seat to make the magic filibuster proof 60 votes. They have many other possibilities.
But getting Charlie out of the governor's race creates ALL kinds of possibilities for shuffling the other statewide races, the most important of which would be putting Alex Sink in as governor.
There is also the very real possibility that in deciding to run for US Senate, Gov. Crist will be over estimating his own ability to keep his ratings high. As the Florida economy continues to tank and the very real effects of the foolish property tax and home insureance decisions he has championed start causing pain to people, we might see a backlash begin to develop.
It will look to voters like Charlie is running away from problems he helped cause instead of working to get real solutions.
Of course, if I start talking again of the possibility of the Democrats sweeping all five statewide races, you're going to accuse ME of smoking crack.
So, I'm just gonna sit here and wait until the legislative session's over and Charlie makes his BIG DECISION.
But if you see me walking around with a smile on my face, you know where it's coming from.