I have a close friend who is in a Ph.D program at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va, in the Geography and Geoinformation Science Department. His area of study covers a great deal of computer based analysis that looks a manifold data sets placed in geographic context. According to him, "I can carry on a conversation with a geologist as well as sociologist as a geographer since the connective tissue is spatial coordinates." He recently sent me a paper from an academic journal that analyzed nighttime light patters to illuminate effects of the surge in US troops in Baghdad beginning in the Spring of 2007.
Back in the Fall of 2006 in the aftermath of the Republican's loss in the mid-term elections, Bush choked on a previous pronouncement and fired Don Rumsfeld. Over the next few months the Bush administration allegedly "weighed their options in Iraq" and came up with the brilliant idea of The Surge. Many read The Surge pretty much for what it was: a Foreign Policy Punt. The Bush Admin refused to seriously consider any real change in policy and kicked the issue down the road for the next administration to deal with whatever the ground situation might be in 2009. In any case it remains important to remember that The Surge carried with it more than the goal of merely reducing the level of violence. The surge claimed its target specifically to improve material conditions of life and create the possibility for political compromise between major factions in Baghdad. During the campaign many Republicans repeated the canard that "the surge is working," based merely on the decreased levels of violence. The following article addressed the assumptions of The Surge, and the assumptions of success through analysis of nighttime light measurement and its implications.
The Article came from Environment and Planning A; published in the Commentary section 2008, Volume 40, titled:
"Baghdad nights: evaluating the US military `surge' using nighttime light signatures."
The authors are John Agnew, Thomas W Gillespie, and Jorge Gonzalez from
Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA).
In this commentary we attempt to intervene in a way that applies some fairly objective and unobtrusive measures to a particularly contentious issue: the question of whether or not the so-called `surge'of US military personnel into Baghdad 30,000 more troops added in the first half of 2007 has turned the tide against political and social instability in Iraq and laid the groundwork for rebuilding an Iraqi polity following the US invasion of March 2003. From the first paragraph of the article.
The critical intersection for any comprehensive analysis combines objective analysis of military facts in conjunction with social and political analysis. Although Iraq reporting has dropped substantially, current projections from the mainstream media seem to focus entirely on the military aspects of the Surge, thus equating a drop in US casualties and overall violence as proof of success. This type of reporting emerged last summer during the Presidential campaign. The Environment and Planning article contributes to a re-distribution of emphasis by design.
By looking at data derived from nighttime light patterns the implications contribute to social/political understanding of the results of the Surge. If the Surge were to have "worked," what would be the anticipated outcomes in nighttime light emission? One would expect that a greater quantity of light would be measured to correspond with the drop in violence in Baghdad over the Summer of 2007. As violence declines, the return to more normal living patterns should result in an increase in nighttime light emission. Moreover, a return to normal functioning should also result in greater electric capacity to enable increased power consumption.
The following image taken from the article displays the various regions of Baghdad and the relative levels of violence at three different times: July 2006, January 2007 and July 2007. The highest levels of violence depicted in red.
The highest levels of violence occurred in the eastern sections of the city, namely Kadamiya, Karkh, West Rashid, and East Rashid. One would expect that in the event the surge "worked" that nighttime light emissions would increase. The following map shows the opposite to be the case.
The reasons behind the decrease in nighttime light emissions certainly require some speculation, however the lack of correlation between 30,000 more troops in Baghdad and a more normal life for Iraqis is clear. Moreover, the Environment and Planning article shows an increase in nighttime light emission in many other cities, but the decline in Baghdad where the bulk of Surge troops were deployed. The commentary concludes:
Our findings suggest that in these terms the surge has had no observable effect,except insofar as it has helped to provide a seal of approval for a process of ethno-sectarian neighborhood homogenization that is now largely achieved but with a tremendous decline in the extent of residential intermixing between groups and a probable significant loss of population in some areas. That is the message we take from the nighttime light data we have presented. Furthermore, the nighttime light signature of Baghdad data when matched with ground data provided by the report to the US Congress by Marine Corps General Jones and various other sources, makes it clear that the diminished level of violence in Iraq since the onset of the surge owes much to a vicious process of interethnic cleansing. This might resume if US forces withdraw. But as the case we have made strongly implies, the massive residential segregation and population loss happened anyway even when US forces were present in increased numbers.
Population loss and further segregation of Baghdad neighborhoods provides a more logical reason for the drop in violence as well. Many US cities that see an influx of drugs may often see corresponding gang violence. When gangs establish a status quo, the levels of violence dissipate, but the drugs are still being dealt. Given this information what can we reasonably expect when US forces are withdrawn? Will Iraq continue to evolve into a Balkanized nation with a Shia instead of Sunni dominance? Certainly some clear thought and planning should go into preparing for possible developments.
In the end, any time you run into someone who makes the assertion that "the surge has worked," you should immediately reply "then the troops can come home."