On February 12, 2009, the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia held a hearing titled "Gaza After The War: What Can Be Built On The Wreckage?". This is the fourth part of a series of diaries about the hearing. Part One focused on the opening statement of the participating Congressional Subcommittee members,Part Two dealt with the testimony of Mr. David Makovsky of the Washington Institute For Near East Peace, and Part Three involved the testimony of Dr. Ziad Asali, President of the American Task Force On Palestine.
The focus today, will be on the third panelist, Dr. Michele Dunne of the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace(CEIP).
Dr. Dunne dealt with the role of Egypt after the war. Her written testimony, "Gaza After The War: Egypt's Equities and Limitations", was submitted for the official record. Her testimony can be found at the webcast at the Subcommitte's hearing page. It lasts from the 44:40-52:00 minute mark.
When describing the statements, I will be using her words or phrases to the best of my ability
Introduction
~Egypt demonstrated during the recent Israeli military operation and its subsequent effort to reach a durable ceasefire that it has two principal interests related to Gaza: first, avoid taking on responsibility for the 1.5 million Palestinians living there, and second, transferring control of Gaza back to the Palestinian Authority led by President Mahmud Abbas to the extent possible.
~These interests spring from longstanding Egyptian support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, as well as from concerns about stability inside Egypt.
Taking On Responsibilities In Gaza
~There are at least two ways in which Egypt might be forced to take on responsibility, and President Mubarak will try to avoid either one.
~First, the possibility that due to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, tens or hundreds of thousands of Palestinians could flood across the border into Sinai and stay on a semi-permanent basis. Egypt would have to house them in refugee camps, creaing a large and restive refugee problem.
~Second, Egypt could be asked to administer or occupy Gaza as it did between 1948 and 1967. Although the Israeli government has not adopted this idea as a policy, the notion that Egypt and Jordan might take on much greater responsibility for Gaza and the West Bank, respectively, to secure their national interests has gained currency as prospects for the near-term creation for an independent Palestinian state have receded.
Potential Effect of Increased Responsibility on Egypt's Government
~President Mubarak realizes that governing hundreds of thousands of Gazans either in the Sinai or Gaza itself would be a thankless task, which could affect his county's stability.
~Sinai is a troubled area, populated largely by Bedouins with little loyalty to the Egyptian state, in which terrorists have carried out several large-scale attacks in recent years. The introduction of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians-perhaps including many from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad- would increase tensions.
~There is widespread unhappiness with Egyptian government performance. There are daily protests, mostly expressing local grievances related to the economy or human rights. The prinicpal opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, supports Hamas and often organizes such protests. While such protests currently do not threaten internal stability, that picture could change if Egypt were to take on significant responsibility for Gazans, a move many Egyptians would see as serving the interests of Israel more than those of the Palestinians.
Restoring Control of Gaza Back To The PA
~Egypt takes a realistic approach to Hamas; it would prefer that Hamas not rule Gaza, but acknowledges that it is impossible to ignore them.
~Egypt prefers to mediate between Hamas and Fatah rather than allow another Arab country to do so, in order to preserve some influence over the terms of Palestinian reconciliation.
~In recent mediation efforts (between Hamas and Fatah), Egypt insists on enforcing the terms of the 2005 Rafah agreement, which treats the PA as the responsible party on the Gaza side of the border.
~Egypt has pressed Hamas to resume reconciliation talks with Fatah, which broke off in November, 2008.
International Cooperation Issues With Egypt
~Egyptian officials have repeatedly denied that significant arms have entered Gaza via the Sinai. They claim arms have entered Gaza by the sea.
~In any case, they are aware that there is now a spotlight on the arms smuggling issue.
~With recent implementation of technical assistance from the US Army Corps of Engineers ($23 million funded out of annual US military assistance to Egypt) to detect tunneling and underground movements, Egypt should be able to improve its performance in preventing arms trafficking into Gaza.
~Egypt has resisted the idea of deploying international forces on its side of the Gaza border. There are already international troops in the Sinai under the guise of the Multinational Forces and Observers (MFO) provided for in the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and Egypt will try to avoid what it sees as further infringements on its sovereignty.
US/Egyptian Relations Post Gaza War
~There is the opportunity to strengthen ties, which have been strained in recent years due to disagreements over US actions in the Middle East, as well as human and civil rights violations in Egypt.
~Egyptian goals in the region are generally consonant with US goals, and this is true regarding Gaza. One difference, however, is that Egypt is working explicitly for reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, which the US considers a terrorist organization.
~Even so, Egypt's unspoken agenda in mediations has always been to promote a greater role for Fatah in any unity government and the smallest role for Hamas that the traffic will bear.
~Egypt is playing a lead role in attempts to shore up Arab support for the PLO headed by President Abbas as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
~In short term, US-Egyptian cooperation on Gaza and other regional issues can help restore bilateral ties.
~Over the long term, however, it will be necessary for the two countires to reach an understanding on progress on human and civil rights in Egypt in order for the partnership to fluorish.
Next diary: Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute.
One last item:
Congresswoman Donna Edwards (MD-04) will be hosting a Community Conversation on Gaza and Israel on Thursday, February 26, 2009 from 7:00pm-8:30pm at Prince George's Community College Largo Student Center-Rennie Forum, Largo, MD
Confimed Panelists:
Amjad Atallah, Co-Director, Middle East Task Force, New America Foundation
Daniel Levy, Co-director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Task Force, New America Foundation
Dr. Heather Hanson, Director of Public Affairs, Mercy Corps
Dr. Robert Pastor,Professor, American University-International Relations
Mitchell Plitnick,Director, USA Office of B'Tselem
Congresswoman Edwards has shown herself to be a person who is deeply commited to peace and justice for the peoples of Israel and Palestine. If any members of the DailyKos community could attend the event and write about it, I would be thankful.