The Governor of New York, David Paterson, has fallen so low in a new poll that he will need a miracle to bob back up to the surface.
Here's what's up:
In today's New York Post, a Siena College poll revealed that only 19% of New York voters would elect Paterson to a full term. 57% said they would prefer "someone else" as Governor.
That "someone else" may well be Andrew Cuomo, our Attorney General. Take a look at this:
The Siena poll puts Cuomo ahead of Paterson 53% to 27%, a stunning turnaround, considering Paterson was up 35% to 33% just last month.
Paterson is simply in way over his head. First, there was the debacle with Caroline Kennedy, where Paterson managed to piss off the Kennedys and leave Cuomo in a strong position. Andrew can continue his strong showing as Attorney General, following the "Eliot Spitzer" model. As for those of us who think that black voters will remember Cuomo's embarassing performance in trying to take down Carl McCall and not rally around him, the Siena poll is disconcerting, to say the least:
Despite being the first black governor, only 54% of blacks view him favorably compared to 34% who don't. Just 32% of blacks say they are ready to vote for him next year, compared to 39% who would prefer someone else.
Of course, Paterson has walked into a firestorm, much of which is not of his making. Theoretically, NY is supposed to have a budget by April 1. However, the budget has turned into a war. The State Senate is presumably now Democratic, but only by a few votes. The leadership is brand new (and includes a Senator from Central New York, David Valesky). Also, Paterson has managed to cause himself unneeded embarrasment by having staff problems and making errors that indicate that he needs better advisors.
Of course, in politics, 2010 is a political infinity. There is no question that things can change in that time. However, Paterson needs to be more flexible and he really needs to learn how to listen to the electorate. That, of course, requires experience and time. His only problem is that he may not have enough time to get himself out of the hole he is presently in.