Research 2000's latest poll for Daily Kos kicks the tires on possible Democratic and Republican challenges to Utah junior Senator Robert Bennett. The results are not surprising; Bennett is currently poised to skate to reelection, and no Democrat nor any Republican is in position to stop him.
First, the numbers for Bennett against the state's best known and best-liked Democrat, Second District Rep. Jim Matheson, as well as a sleeper candidate, legendary Jeopardy champion Ken Jennings (yes, he's a Democrat). The results are rather rough for the Democrats:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Bennett (R) 55
Matheson (D) 32
Bennett (R) 57
Jennings (D) 21
Virtually no one knows Jennings as a political entity, other than that he has an elephant's memory, and is a Democrat. Matheson's favorables are good, but Bennett destroys him anyway.
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
Bennett (R) 52 37 11
Matheson (D) 45 27 28
Jennings (D) 13 4 83
Utah is about as Republican as a state can get, and it would take an open seat and a lot of luck for Democrats to make much headway at the statewide level.
Matheson is the only Democrat in the state currently being talked up for a statewide run. His favorability numbers are good, actually better than Bennett's, and he consistently wins election out of a very conservative district. It would not be a surprise to see him elected Governor of Utah someday, if and when wildly popular incumbent Republican Jon Huntsman moves on.
The poll also field-tested two primary matchups for Bennett, against fellow Republicans David Leavitt (brother of former Gov. Mike Leavitt) and Mark Shurtleff (currently Utah's Attorney General).
Republican Primary
Bennett (R) 44
Leavitt (R) 23
Bennett (R) 46
Shurtleff (D) 20
The results seem pretty clear. A majority of Utahns have a favorable opinion of Bennett, and they've no particular desire to see him gone.
The only sign of weakness is that his raw re-elect numbers aren't great - 42% would definitely reelect, with 37% who would "vote to replace" and 21% who would consider someone else.
But when a theoretical opponent is replaced with the actual names of real live Utah politicians, Bennett looks very strong.
Shurtleff, Leavitt and Matheson have futures statewide, but not in this race.