Short answer: "Who the hell knows? It's Tom Coburn, people".
Will Oklahoma's junior Senator, in terms of tenure if not outright nuttiness (he gets stiff competition on that score from senior pal James Inhofe), hang up his spikes at the end of his term, in 2010?
Will "Dr. No", as Tommy is not-so-affectionately nicknamed by his colleagues, disappoint both parties by running for reelection?
Will he take on the anointed party standard-bearer, Rep. Mary Fallin, in the primary for Governor of Oklahoma?
Will he relocate to Africa in the hopes of teaching a group of eleven rhinoceroses to play soccer?
Your guess is as good as anyone's. You never know with Coburn, who has made a political career out of doing the unforeseen and unpredictable.
When he first ran for the seat, he shocked everyone by getting in late and wound up upsetting the party favorite, Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys. Before that, in 1994, he surprised many by running for longtime Rep. Mike Synar’s (D-Okla.) seat, and then surprised them again by keeping a term-limit pledge in 2000.
And that’s to say nothing of his conduct while in the Senate, during which time he has waged an anti-earmark war that has rubbed members of both parties the wrong way.
"Everybody knows that Dr. Coburn is unpredictable," said a former Coburn staffer. "Nobody will know what he’s going to do until he announces it."
Let's walk through the possible scenarios, knowing that all speculation depends only on what Dr. No himself chooses to do.
- Coburn retires, and doesn't run for Governor. Frankly, both parties would probably welcome such an outcome, and Coburn (who doesn't appear to like Washington much) probably would as well.
Coburn won't lose if he runs for reelection, at least not to a Democrat; there's nobody in the Democratic pool who could take out Coburn, except maybe term-limited Gov. Brad Henry, who has expressed no interest in the Senate. Coburn's lone-wolf crusade against earmarks in Washington appears to have endeared the Good Doctor to the people, if not to Washington. Though Democrats don't have a great shot at winning a Senate seat in Oklahoma, they have a far better shot with an open seat than against Coburn. Possible candidates (besides Henry) include Rep. Dan Boren and former Rep. Brad Carson, both of the Second District.
As for the GOP, they have frequently been just as exasperated by Coburn's crusaderism as Democrats have, and many Republicans would probably privately welcome the chance to put a more dependable Republican in the seat. If Henry doesn't run, even an open-seat race would favor the Republicans, and Henry isn't expected to run. It would be a nice chance for failed NRCC chairman Tom Cole to get out of the House, where he's currently in disfavor after spearheading Team Elephant during a disastrous 2008 electoral cycle.
- Coburn retires and runs for Governor. Roughly the same situation for the Senate seat, but Coburn's situation instantly complicates the picture for the gubernatorial race.
Coburn is not the party favorite in the primary; that's Fallin, a former Lieutenant Governor and current Congresswoman. Still, lack of institutional party support has never stopped Coburn before.
There would likely be a rough primary between Coburn and Fallin, as there is expected to be on the Democratic side (between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson). Without knowing who would emerge from the primary - either primary - it's very difficult to handicap that one.
This is probably the riskiest option for both parties. On the one hand, the Republicans would have a potentially ugly primary which could damage their nominee for the general. On the other hand, Democrats would run the risk of Coburn, who enjoys the highest profile of all the candidates, walking away with the primary and the general.
One note of interest in the gubernatorial race is Mary Fallin's open seat, the historically Republican OK-05. Oklahoma City trended strongly Democratic in 2008 (though Dem performance is still weak there by national standards), which could conceivably open the door for a strong Democratic contender for the House seat. One such possibility is State Sen. Andrew Rice, who ran for U.S. Senate in 2008. He now enjoys statewide name recognition on top of his base in his Senate district, as well as access to a national base of fundraising donors.
- Coburn sticks around in the Senate. Republicans aren't likely to primary him - he's no Jim Bunning - and Democrats aren't likely to run hard against him. You might see a "kamikaze campaign" against the Republican from some enterprising Democrat hoping to establish name recognition for a future run, but that's about it.
Coburn's fundraising has been weak this cycle, so he may well be looking to bail; on the other hand, he claims he can raise the money whenever he likes, noting that he brought in $5 million in seven months in 2004.
This is probably the second-best option for Democrats, as they have a good shot at winning the Gov race with Askins or Edmondson as long as Coburn stays out. It would be a decent outcome for Republicans as well, as they'd be virtually guaranteed the Senate seat and they would also still have a good shot in the Gov race.
Coburn will eventually make his plans clear, but until then, everyone's in the dark. Let's hope he decided he's had quite enough of politics altogether.