By John Wilkes from Eyesonobama.com:
With all of the stimulus wrangling and barbs being lobbed at the Democratic president, the 2010 Senate election field still looks awfully favorable to Democrats. Despite blowouts in 2006 and 2008, eight Republican seats look to be the battlegrounds of 2010: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina.
With all of the stimulus wrangling and barbs being lobbed at the Democratic president, the 2010 Senate election field still looks awfully favorable to Democrats. Despite back-to-back blowouts in 2006 and 2008, eight Republican-held seats look to be the battlegrounds of 2010.
Missouri
The Show Me State may be the Democrats best chance for a pickup. In 2008, Barack Obama flexed a surprising amount of electoral muscle, ultimately losing the state to John McCain by less than 4,000 votes out of a total tally of close to 3 million. In 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated Republican incumbent Jim Talent to give her party a foothold there in the Senate. By all accounts, Democrats are stronger in Missouri than they’ve been in decades. In 2010, Republican Senator and former Governor Kit Bond will retire, leaving an open seat. As of now, the parties are coalescing around two candidates: Republicans around longtime Rep. Roy Blunt, and Democrats around Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of former Senator Jean Carnahan and Governor Mel Carnahan. Early polling shows Carnahan with a narrow lead over Blunt already.
Florida
Republicans have enjoyed a strong advantage in Florida in recent years. Currently, just two of the statewide elected officials are Democrats. But Barack Obama broke a two-election losing streak there in 2008, and if Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek has his way, he’ll be succeeding retiring Republican Senator Mel Martinez in 2010. Meek leads all Republicans currently in the field, with one caveat: if Republican Governor Charlie Crist runs, he wins hands down. But Crist’s candidacy is no guarantee. The big-state governor has his choice between a second term as the state’s chief executive or the Senate. If he wants to run for president in 2012 or 2016, as some are already speculating, he may want to stay out of the Senate, where voting records and floor battles make it difficult to make a run at the White House.
Ohio
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, both Democrats, jumped into the Ohio Senate race after Republican George Voinovich announced his retirement. And though former BushOMB Director Rob Portman got a short-lived poll spike when threw his hat into the ring for the Republican nomination, both Brunner and Fisher appear to be heavily favored. It’s still early and the polling still shows a large number of undecideds, but both Brunner and Fisher are sporting double-digit leads over Portman in a general election match-up, with the latter of the two faring a little better than the former.
Pennsylvania
Moderate Republican Senator Arlen Specter has announced his retirement, putting targets on either side of himself. Considering that Pennsylvania is a typically Democratic-leaning Rust Belt state, Democrats will gun hard for it, hoping to duplicate the success they had there in 2006 when Democrat Bob Casey unseated Rick Santorum, then the third-most powerful Republican in the Senate. But Specter is drawing primary competition as well in former Rep. Pat Toomey, largely as a result of the former’s support of the Democrat-backed economic stimulus plan. RNC Chairman Michael Steele didn’t helpwhen he suggested on Neil Cavuto’s FOX News show that the party would withhold campaign funds as a punishment. Specter would likely defeat Toomey, but the contest would drain precious campaign resources. Democrats have no definite contender at this point, but their dream candidate would be term-limited Governor Ed Rendell.
Kentucky
Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning is finishing up his second term in office in a spectacular explosion. The Senator is already one of the most heavily criticized Senators for his perceived lack of work ethic and his temper. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had been trying to quietly pressure Bunning to retire, but Bunning took the fued public, threatening to retire early and allow the state’s Democratic governor to appoint a replacement if the party doesn’t back his reelection bid. He’s also drawn fire for predicting Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death from pancreatic cancer, as well as his cursing tirade when reporters asked him whether his refusal to release his own polling numbers indicated that his reelection prospects were in trouble. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo is leading the charge against him, and trails in polling by just a few points- a bad sign for a two-term incumbent.
New Hampshire
Republican Senator Judd Gregg has indicated that he’s leaning against running for reelection in 2010, which has raised speculation that Democrats may be able to strengthen their dominion over New England in 2010. Already, Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes has thrown himself into contention, and early polling shows him defeating all potential Republican contenders, including former Senator John Sununu and former Congressman Charlie Bass.
North Carolina
Republican Richard Burr may only be vulnerable because of forces outside of his control, because at this point, he doesn’t have any Democratic challengers. Still, the stunning upset of Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and the victory of Barack Obama in the presidential contest in 2008, push North Carolina into the tossup category. Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper is the most likely candidate, and has posted a few polls showing him either leading or very narrowly trailing Burr. Again, to be at that point this early is a bad sign for Burr. Another nasty figure: since 1968, no incumbent has won reelection to this seat. It’s switched every six years from Democrat to Republican and back again. If that holds true, Burr is probably in big trouble.
Louisiana
David Vitter, who was named on a list of clients of a major D.C. prostitution ring, is facing serious competition for reelection in 2010. He’s possibly facing a stiff primary from Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and an embarrassing run by porn star Stormy Daniels (a ploy intended to keep Vitter’s sexual indiscretion a constant reminder during the Republican primary). Right now, no Democrats have jumped into the race, though Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux are mentioned as possible contenders, and both are only trailing Vitter by single digits. Vitter may face a more serious fight if Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu- brother of Louisiana’s other Senator, Mary Landrieu- runs for the Democratic nomination.
I know I said eight, but a ninth could be in the works. Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn has not indicated whether he is running for reelection. If he doesn’t, the race blows wide open. Democratic Governor Brad Henry is by far the most popular Democrat in the state. Though he said back in 2006 that he didn’t plan on running for the Senate, a lot can change in four years- especially when a politician nears the end of a term-limited tenure. Rep. Dan Boren, the state’s only Democratic Congressman, has declined to run if Coburn remains, but may reconsider if he retires. Republican Tom Cole would be the likely standard bearer for the GOP, but again, it would depend upon Coburn’s retirement.
On the Democratic side, only two seats appear to be even close to contention. Colorado and Nevada are both only very lightly blue states. Republicans will go after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada in an attempt to embarrass Democrats, but he’s been in the Senate for almost 25 years, and was reelected in 2004 with more than 61%. In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet is an unknown. He’s never held elected office before, and was appointed when Senator Ken Salazar was appointed to lead the Department of the Interior. He could face problems if former Governor Bill Owens jumps into the race, though Owens denies he has any interest in doing so. Otherwise, Bennet should be headed to reelection.
A third Democratic seat may become closer in the coming days. A recent poll showed former Rep. Rob Simmons of Connecticut leading Democratic veteran incumbent Chris Dodd, who has been damaged by a series of issues surrounding the economic crisis, including a lower-than-market-value mortgage he received from one of the banks in question. Simmons declared his candidacy today. If polling doesn't improve my early summer, Dodd may retire, in which case the race would shift immediately back to Democrats.