Amidst fears that he is consigning the Israeli left to the "garbage bin of history", Ehud Barak got a majority vote among a deeply divided Labor Party, to join a government headed by the Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Along with the controversial Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party and the ultra-religious Shas Party, this will give Likud a majority of 66 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
Many have predicted Labor will split apart with this decision. Personally, I'd be surprised by such a move, as that would only further marginalize Labor. A smaller Labor Party isn't going to be more relevant or appealing to Israeli voters -- at least not in the current political climate there.
Another possible result is that there will be a leadership challenge within the party -- a new party election, which could topple Barak and lead Labor out of the gov't. With no clear alternative within Labor to Barak, at the present time, that won't happen soon. If and when that happens, Likud would have to form a narrower right-wing gov't or face a new national vote.
In the meantime, Netanyahu will lead the Israeli gov't. Labor has extracted some vague language from Likud about the government's foreign policies. As reported in the New York Times, the two parties have agreed
"the new government will formulate a plan for comprehensive peace in the Middle East; that Israel is committed to all previously signed diplomatic and international agreements; and that the government will work to reach peace agreements with all of Israel’s neighbors while preserving Israel’s security and vital interests."
What does this mean for the future of the Israel-Palestinian process?
"The agreement does not contain any mention of the two-state solution as a goal for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but as Shalom Simhon, Labor’s chief negotiator, noted, neither does it rule that out."
At this point, probably the best the left can hope for is that the gov't isn't openly hostile to a peace process and doesn't do anything terrible to further, drastically undermine the prospects for a future peace.
For now, it seems those on the Israeli left will have to bide their time and also keep their mouths shut. At some point, the left will have to offer up a competing vision, but for now the only real voices in opposition will be that of centrist Kadima and party leader Tzipi Livni.
On this side of the world, probably the best we can hope is that the situation does not flare up again. While this gov't is probably not going to give Pres. Obama much room to maneuver to promote progress in negotiations, the reality is the peace process wouldn't go very far in the wake of recent hostilities. While continued protests and heavy-handed Israeli responses will not inspire confidence, the further we get from the recent Gaza War, the better.
If the situation in the Middle East remains in some stasis without any major flare-ups, Obama can continue to focus on domestic American issues and issues of global concern such as the financial crisis and global warming. Perhaps in a couple of years, the Israeli left will be in a better position to make their case to the Israeli public. That seems to be the gamble that Laborites have taken today.