No, NY-20 and the Absentee Ballots is not a rock band (but let me know if you start one--you can use the name), it's the issue that could make or break the tight, but currently-optimistic results of Murphy vs. Tedisco. With all 610 precints in, Murphy has won, 77,344 to 77,279. But there are still many absentee ballots left to be counted (I've heard a number around 6,000), which will ultimately decide the race. Below, I look at a few of the ugly possibilities of the spin that might emerge from this unique election.
First of all, it's worthy of note that this was huge, turnout-wise. According to the scuttlebutt at Swing State Project, the 135,000+ people who came out to vote is more than showed up for the LA-06 (hat tip to ArkDem the Ragin Cajin (sic) for that factoid), and:
the total vote for NY-20 in 2006 was about 220,000 votes. I don't think there's been a special House election with this level of turnout before.
(hat tip to Johnny Longtorso)
Nevertheless, it is those roughly 6,000 absentee votes that, if I remember correctly, get roughly a week more time to arrive due to the ballots getting sent out late. Most of these go to the military. And, it seems to me, there is the very real chance of NY-20's finest getting caught in the spin crosshairs. I'd like to open this up to discussion, as I'm not a local, and I'm not an expert, but here's a few things I worry might happen.
Scenario #1: Murphy wins the 3/31 vote, but is upset by the absentees:
In this, the GOP (which hasn't felt shy about saying whatever it feels like in the past) spins the election as the military sticking up for good old fashioned American values or whatever you like, and replacing Murphy with Tedisco. Murphy, and Dems overall, are spun by the usual suspects as being unpatriotic, against our troops, and all manner of disingenuous things. This could be a vehicle to badmouth Obama's foreign policy, in addition to being the referendum on Obama that most here have predicted could occur with a Murphy loss.
This is the worst case scenario, as I see it, and the rest range from ambivalent to decent for us.
Scenario #2: Murphy wins the 3/31 vote, and absentee ballots bring the already-close margin closer, but Murphy holds.
See above, albeit less so. With the margin so close, any further tightening is really just float in the numbers. I'd expect some of Scenario 1, but without as much oomph in the media.
Scenario #3: Murphy wins the 3/31 vote, and the absentee ballots widen Murphy's lead, from a little to a lot.
Expect a lot of nervous, uncomfortable shuffling in RNC headquarters. Dems tend not to toot their own horn the way Republicans do, and I wouldn't expect too much grandstanding from our side.
Scenario #4: Murphy wins the 3/31 vote, and every single absentee ballot comes back in favor of Murphy.
Pigs fly. The media might wonder what the fuss was all about. GOP calls the troops "Anti-values".
What are everybody else's thoughts? I figure, with an election everyone is so primed to cut open and expect the entrails of in hopes of political prognostications--adding in the ballots of 6,000 or so troops can only make things more interesting. Talk on!
(I'm sure you've all seen this, but Arjun breaks down the situation excellently on the front page. See here.)