Hey y'all,
As I've meandered around the site today, I've noticed a lot of incorrect information about the race. I used to work at a Board of Elections in New York State, so I feel that I can share a certain insight with you to clear things up.
Facts, below the fold.
Fact 1: No one is currently in the lead.
Yes, Scott Murphy has a higher number on the AP's website. But I can not even stress to you how unofficial those numbers are. The process for gathering those numbers is riddled with potential errors:
Results are read off of machines by Person A to Person B who writes them down. Person B calls the BOE and reads - over the phone - the results to Person C at the BOE, who writes them down. Person C gives the sheet to person D who types them into a computer.
10 chances for error:
Person A misreads
Person A misspeaks
Person B mishears
Person B miswrites
Person B misreads
Person B misspeaks
Person C mishears
Person C miswrites
Person D misreads
Person D mistypes
I've seen numbers change by 500 votes in one precinct because of this "telephone game" style of election reporting. Starting tomorrow, these results will be reviewed an corrected at every stage. Look for swings in vote counts.
Fact 2: We don't know how many absentees there are going to be
(Edited from new info from homerun in the comments)
I know the AP said, and then everyone repeated, that 5900 ballots are left to be counted. But this is flat out incorrect. 5900 ballots were received by Monday night by 7 of the 10 counties in the district. But over 10000 ballots were mailed out in those 7 counties, and any ballot postmarked timely can be accepted until April 7th if it was mailed in North America, or until April 13th if it was mailed elsewhere. I expect 1000 come in today alone. There is also the matter of the three counties who did not tell the AP anything about their absentee counts - depending which counties those are, the absentee count could double. Potentially there are over 15,000 absentees outstanding.
Fact 3: There are other ballots outstanding
No one seems to be mentioning that we have a system of provisional balloting in New York, Affidavit Ballots. There were surely hundreds, and probably thousands, of provisional ballots cast today. Any provisional ballot that is the result of an in-county move will count. Any provisional that is the result of an inept pollworker will count. Most others will not. These votes tend to favor Democrats, and they should not be ignored.
Fact 4: No Absentee Ballots have been counted yet
Absentee ballots (and provisional ballots) have been impounded, most likely by local sheriffs departments or the State Troopers, as a result of a lawsuit filed today by New York Republican Chairman Joseph Mondello. They cannot be opened, because the parties want to be able to sue to knock off absentee voters who filled out the envelopes incorrectly, moved, or are otherwise ineligible, and they can not do that if the ballots have been opened.
Fact 5: We will not have an automatic recount, and probably will not have any recount
New York likes to do these things in one slow trudge. The initial canvass works like a recount, with lawyers from both sides reviewing every last thing the BOE does. The 2 county commissioners (one D, one R) vote on each questionable item, and if they lock the 4 state commissioners (2D, 2R), and if they lock, the ballot counts and can be sued on, although getting a judge to not throw out your case in NY is a lot harder than in MN. The BOE has I believe 45 days to certify, and this will most likely take every last one.