As an exercise, I used the "who won what Congressional District" data complied by the Swing State Project group to see how the 2008 Presidential Election would have gone had each state allotted its electoral votes in the same way that Nebraska and Maine does: the candidate that wins the state gets two electors (Senators) and one elector per Congressional District.
The results were interesting: President Obama still won, but the margin was only 300-238.
I'll list conclusions and data below the fold.
I used the Congressional District data compiled by Swing State Project, which can be found here:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/...
I found some interesting tidbits of information:
- In some states that went blue, Senator McCain actually won more Congressional Districts than President Obama. The difference is that President Obama won his districts by much wider margins than Senator McCain won his.
This happened in: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
- There were many blue states in which Senator McCain won districts that are represented by Democrats in the House. In fact
Blue States: 22
CT-3, CT-4, FL-2, FL-24, IN-8, IN-9, MD-1, MN-7, NC-7, NC-11, NM-2, NY-13, NY-29, OH-6, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-10, PA-12, PA-17, VA-5, VA-9
Red States: 25
AL-2, AL-5, AR-1, AR-2, AR-4, AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, GA-8, ID-1, KY-6, MO-4, MS-1, MS-4, ND, OK-2, SC-5, SD, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, UT-2, WV-1, WV-3
This may well explain the behavior of many "blue dog" Democrats.
The data:
state | CD-Obama | CD-McCain | Sen-O | Sen-M | total-O | total-M |
Alaska | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Alabama | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Arkansas | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Arizona | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
California | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 11 |
Colorado | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
Connecticut | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Delaware | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Florida | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
Georgia | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Hawaii | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Iowa | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
Idaho | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Illinois | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 3 |
Indiana | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
Kansas | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Kentucky | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Louisiana | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Massachusetts | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Maryland | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
Maine | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Michigan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
Minnesota | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
Missouri | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
Mississippi | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Montana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
North Carolina | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
North Dakota | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Nebraska | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
New Hampshire | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
New Mexico | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Nevada | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
New York | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 4 |
Ohio | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
Oklahoma | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
Oregon | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
Pennsylvania | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
Rhode Island | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
South Carolina | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
South Dakota | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Tennessee | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
Texas | 11 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
Utah | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Vermont | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Virginia | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 |
Washington | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 |
Wisconsin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
West Virginia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Wyoming | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
DC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
|
| totals | 300 | 238 |