This is the next installment in the "Future Trends" series. I continue my Florida focus. Having examined the Panhandle, Jacksonville, and the Orlando/Space Coast area, I now focus on the Gainesville/Ocala area. These counties really don't fit in a region, so I'm focusing on Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Gilchrist, Levy, Marion, Putnam, Sumter, and Union counties.
Previous entries in the series:
Florida--Orlando, Daytona, Space Coast Area
Florida Panhandle
Nevada
Pennyslvania
Georgia
Oklahoma and West Texas
More beneath the fold
These eight counties really don't fit in any region. So I've organized them together. These counties are located in the part of Florida where the Panhandle turns south toward Tampa and are located in the area north of Orlando and southwest of Jacksonville. Gainesville and Marion are the major cities. Gainesville is home to the University of Florida and the most Democratic. The rest of the counties trend Republican.
In terms of Congressional representation these districts that span that region are extremely illogical. Parts of FL-3, FL-4,FL-5, FL-6, and FL-8 cover the area. With the exception of FL-3 and FL-8 the rest of the districts belong to the GOP. In fact the creative pro-Republican 2002 redistricting that placed Gainesville into FL-3, which absorbs every Black precinct in Florida above Orlando and south of Jacksonville, led to Karen Thurman's loss in 2002 to Ginne Brown-Waite. Only until 2008 did the Democrats win FL-8, but the majority of that district now votes in solidly Democratic Orange County and Orlando. The districts up in this part of FL are a testament to how the GOP achieved domination. The area could possibly support probably one nmore Democratic leaning or a swing district.
Before I continue it is important to first identify the patterns of population growth in the region and determine which counties are growing the fastest and which ones are losing population.
Alachua: 241,364 (2008); 217,995 (2000); +23,409; +10.7 Gain
Bradford: 29,012 (2008); 26,088 (2000) +2,924; +11.2 Gain
Columbia: 69,092 (2008); 56,513 (2000); +12,579; +22.3 Gain
Gilchrist: 17,191(2008); 14,437 (2000); +2,754; +19.1 Gain
Levy: 39,460 (2008); 34,450 (2000); +5,010; +14.5 Gain
Marion: 329,628 (2008); 258,916 (2000); +70,712; +27.3 Gain
Putnam: 73,459 (2008); 70,423 (2000); +3,036; +4.3 Gain
Sumter: 74,721 (2008); 53,345 (2000); +21,376; +40.1 Gain
Union: 15,141 (2008); 13,442 (2000); +1,699; +12.6 Gain
Total: 889,068 (2008)' 745,569 (2000); +143,499;+19.2 Gain
Overall the region has gained population by 19.2%. Overall the counties leading the growth seem to be Marion and Sumter counties, both of which posted gains above most of the other counties in the region. In this area, in future elections, Marion and Sumter counties will matter more. While Alachua is gaining population, and is the most Democratic, more Republican Marion and Sumter counties have more votes. By voter registration all the counties except for Marion and Sumter counties have more Democrats than Republicans. While these voters identify as Democrats, with the exception of those in Alachua County, most of them tend to vote for Republicans in most statewide races.
Let's now compare results from 2004 to 2008.
Alachua: M: 48513; O: 75565; GOP -27052
B: 47762; K: 62504; GOP -14742
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: -12310
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 13061
Bradford: M: 8136; O: 3430; GOP +4706
B: 7557; K: 3244; GOP +4313
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 393
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 186
Columbia: M: 18670; O: 9171; GOP +9499
B: 16758; K: 8031; GOP +8727
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 772
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 1140
Gilchrist: M: 5656; O: 1996; GOP +3660
B: 4936; K: 2017; GOP +2919
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 741
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: -21
Levy: M: 11754; O: 6711; GOP +5043
B: 10410; K: 6074; GOP +4336
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 707
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 637
Marion: M: 89628; O: 70839; GOP: 18789
B: 81283; K: 57271; GOP: 24012
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: -5223
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 13658
Putnam: M: 19637; O: 13236; GOP: 6401
B: 18311; K: 12412; GOP: 5899
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 502
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 824
Sumter: M: 30866; O: 17655; GOP: 13211
B: 19800; K: 11584; GOP: 8216
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 4995
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 6071
Union: M: 3940; O: 1300; GOP: 2640
B: 3396; K: 1251; GOP: 2145
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: 495
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 49
Total: M: 236800; O: 199903; GOP: 36897
B: 210213; K: 164388; GOP: 45825
GOP Gain between 2004 and 2008: -8928
Dem Gain between 2004 and 2008: 35515
Across the region Obama ran ahead of Kerry and Bush ran ahead of McCain. Obama only ran behind Kerry in Gilchrist County, but that is probably one of the most "Dixiecratic" counties in the area. It probably has more in common with FL-2 than the rest of this part of FL. While McCain ran ahead of Bush in Sumter County, Obama gained ground on Kerry. Obama's gain in votes was larger than McCain's gain. What's ominous for the GOP is that Marion County, where Ocala is, underperformed for McCain. The GOP lost 5223 votes from 2004. Obama gained 13658 votes over Kerry there. After Sumter County Marion is the fastest growing. The best GOP seem to be the ones with the least population and the most Dixiecratic. Overall the GOP carried the region by 36,897 votes, but that is 8,928 votes less than Bush won by in 2004. Obama gaine don Kerry by 35515 votes.
Going forward, in 2010 and 2012, FL Democrats would be best off targeting Marion and Sumter counties to supplement Alachua County. The rest of the counties seem very Republican. But as seems to have happened everywhere, if the county grew faster, McCain ran behind Bush.