According to one of the more accurate pollsters - PPP (especially in North Carolina, where they are headquartered), Obama has a +16 approval rating in what was one of the most closely fought battleground states in the 2008 election.
Obama barely squeaked by in the Tarheel State on election night, edging out Arizona Senator John McCain by 14,177 votes or 3 tenths of a percentage point. Just three months after his inauguration, however, Obama is enjoying a sound 54% approval rating and only a 38% disapproval rating.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
On election night, Obama was crushed among independents, winning only 39% of them to McCain's 60%.
http://www.cnn.com/...
It is this same group (Independent) which seems to have turned around the most, lending Obama a marginal approval rating of 50% (versus a disapproval rating of 46%).
Obama Approval Democrats Republicans Ind/Other
APPROVE 85 13 50
DISAPPROVE 10 74 46
NOT SURE 5 13 5
In this poll, Democrats make up 47% of the sample, Republicans make up 33%, and Independents, 19%. It is interesting to note that in the same poll, Kay Hagan's numbers are mediocre - she posted a 33/33 approval disapproval rating with 35% unsure.
(numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding)
My prediction is that in 2012, North Carolina will be more strongly Democratic. I believe that Obama will take the state 52% to 47%. I base this on two main factors:
First, North Carolina is becoming more demographically diverse day by day, and that is simply going to help the Democrats.
Secondly, white independents now realize that Barack Obama is NOT the 'scary black Muslim terrorist' that Sarah Palin tried to convince them he was. There is no doubt in my mind that Obama will do significantly better among North Carolina's white independents in 2012 than he did in 2008.