Also at The Albany Project
The nationally significant 20th Congressional District special election between Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco is over but for the last-gasp Rovian lawyering -- Murphy is ahead by 273 votes, a margin that will surely grow as challenged absentee ballots are counted next week.
National and state Republicans thought they had this one in the bag -- Tedisco had high name recognition due to his penchant for publicity stunts (you all should click that link, for a coffee-spitting laugh) and his 26 years in the New York Assembly minority, and that the district has a 70,000 registration advantage for the Republicans.
Murphy, on the other hand, had never run for office, and had only lived in the district for a few years.
Why Murphy won, despite all that, below.
The national significance of this race from the get-go was that it would be a referendum on President Obama, who narrowly carried the district in November.
The Republicans somehow thought that was a good thing for them, or at least an opportunity to scare people into giving them money.
Here's what House Minority Leader John Boehner had to say about NY-20 to the winguts at CPAC in late February:
We need to compete everywhere. And when I say compete everywhere, New York 20 is probably the best example. This is where Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate. It’s an open race. Jim Tedisco is the minority leader in the New York assembly. He is our candidate.
This election is on March 31st, and it is a giant opportunity for us to let America know that America is on our side. And so, if you’re looking for ways to get plugged in, go get plugged in.
Republicans there and in other places outside the district were indeed plugged in.
The National Republican Campaign Committee spent around $1 million on this race, in part because NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions is a junket buddy of Miami Mob Leader John Sweeney, who represented the 20th for eight years until Kirsten Gillibrand beat him like a drum in 2006.
Also, the National Republican Trust and Our Country Deserves Better PACs spent more than $500,000 on very negative, very truth-challenged ads on behalf of Tedisco.
And southern Christianists sent some kids into the district to do GOTV over the last four days.
But they lost, nonetheless.
Why, you wonder?
Well, I have a little list:
- Scott Murphy was an excellent candidate, working hard all day every day in the Gillibrand model, and sticking relentlessly to his message that he knows how to create jobs because he's done it, and that he will generally support President Obama if elected. And his ads were excellent, too.
- Tedisco was a lousy candidate, an obvious opportunist who never lived in the district and quietly passed on an opportunity to run for an open Congressional seat in his lifelong district last year, an annoying barking-dog type, and someone who would oppose Obama on almost every issue. And his ads sucked.
- The major issue in the campaign was Obama's economic stimulus package. Murphy supported it, though he said it was not perfect. Tedisco refused to say where he stood on it until late in the campaign, when he said "No" -- which is where he was on it all along, but the polls told him that the stimulus was generally popular in the district, as it is across the country, a relatively few tea-bagging nitwits notwithstanding.
- The 20th is a lot more purple than the registration numbers indicate. It elected Gillibrand twice and went for Obama last year, and, according to the three Siena polls during this special, Gillibrand has a favorability rating above 70 percent, and Obama's is above 60 percent.
- Democrats in the district were a lot more fired-up to vote for, and work for, Murphy, than were Republicans for Tedisco. The final Siena poll showed that 84 percent of Democratic respondents said they would vote for Murphy; Tedisco got just 64 percent of Republican respondents. Democrats within and without the district were also a lot more active on the Internets.
There are more reasons why Murphy won, but in the interest of brevity, I'll stop here (with just a brief mention of Michael Steele's now-more-uncertain future).
But not before again asking the DKos community to do whatever we can to help Scott Murphy.
This election is over except for the large lady's last aria, but Murphy will be a top target of national Republicans in 2010, as he was in this special, and will need all the netroots support he can get.