On 4/15/2009 the NH State Senate held its first hearing on HB 436 (Marriage Equality).
The vote count at this point is still unpredictable and should be close. In this diary I will attempt to group the potential Yes votes in order of likelihood based on factors including past votes and floor speeches, media reports, recent election margins, and personal background.
continued...
Past Votes
In April 2007 the NH State Senate voted 14-10 on party lines in favor of HB 437 (Civil Unions). This provides us with a very helpful starting point for prefiguring the upcoming senate vote on marriage equality. Now there was a fair amount of turnover in the 2008 election with 6 of these seats changing hands, but each stayed with the incumbent party so the balance of power remains 14-10 in favor of the Democrats. 4 of the 6 incoming senators (Denley, Carson, Houde, Laskey) served in the House during the previous term and therefore recorded votes for or against the 2007 Civil Union bill. All of these voted in line with their party. Also, one of the newly elected GOP senators (Denley) had to resign over a DUI, but was replaced by a like-minded Republican in the 4/21/2009 special election. I assume anyone voting for unions is at least a maybe for marriage, while anyone voting against unions will certainly not vote for marriage (though there was one instance in VT of someone flipping between the 2000 and 2009 votes).
Past Floor Speechs
My main apprehension about the upcoming vote is that some of the Democratic senators we need may have offered rationales for their 2007 civil union vote that they'd find ackward to "evolve" from in just 2 years (e.g. unions will not "redefine marriage"). The state of NH graciously provides us audio of discussion prior to the 2007 vote (starts at about 00:58:56) and sure enough the Democrat introducing the civil union bill leads by saying:
HB 437 preserves institution of marriage .... Even with the provisions of this new legislation in place marriage in New Hampshire can only occur between one man and one woman.
Now the senator who said this, Joseph Foster (D-13), is one of those several replaced in 2008, but did his words reflect the position of the caucus generally? Two more Democrats would stand that day to speak in favor of the bill, Harold Janeway (D-07) at about 01:04:46 and Martha Fuller Clark (D-24) at about 01:27:12. Though the later of those did claim that the bill was "not about marriage" (and this after several Republicans had stood and argued that it was in fact a gay marriage bill), both of these senators cited that fact that they have gay children and spoke in such strong terms that I believe there is no doubt they will support full marriage equality as well.
Media Reports
Blue Hampshire has collected media reports on the positions of several Democratic senators. They confirm what I had surmised about Janeway, as well as documenting the support of Matthew Houde (D-5), and Molly Kelly (D-10). I performed cursory internet searches on each of the remaining Democrats but was unable to find anything definitive.
Recent Election Margins
I looked up the margins of victory for each Democratic seat in the most recent 2 elections, 2008 and 2006 (whether involving the current or past occupant). My assumption is that senators from overwhelming democratic districts will be both more progressive and more independent in their votes, and would have no fear of losing their seat over this issue.
Personal Background
From looking rather closely at the recent Vermont vote breakdown it's clear that support for marriage equality cuts across all social categories: gender, age, religion, class, education, family situation, etc. So I don't think that a state senator belonging to a group with a less supportive reputation on this issue (e.g. seniors, or Catholics) is very predictive of how they'll vote. However, I am willing to consider the converse: if a politician is under 40 or belongs to a gay inclusive church I believe that is an inicator they'll be more likely to vote Yes.
Ratings
So after all that background here's how I count the potential Yes votes.
STRONG (7)
Matthew Houde (D-05)
(603)271-2104, matthew.houde@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2008
71% in 2006 (*previous Democrat)
66% in 2008
formerly NH Rep (01), voted Yea in 2007
age: 40
BA Dartmouth, JD UConn
law professor
Yes according to media reports
Yes in committee vote
Jacalyn Cilley (D-06) (*promoted, see updates)
(603)271-2642, jacalyn.cilley@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
59% in 2006
57% in 2008
BA, MBA UNH
market research and adjuct professor of econ.
5 children, 11 grandchildren
spoke in favor at hearing
Harold Janeway (D-07)
(603)271-7585, harold.janeway@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
58% in 2006
52% in 2008
gay son and daughter
Yes according to media reports
Molly Kelly (D-10)
(603)271-4153, molly.kelly@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
63% in 2006
58% in 2008
age: 60
BA Keene St., JD Franklin Pierce
financial advisor at AIG
4 children, 5 grandchildren
Yes according to media reports
Bette Lasky (D-13) (*promoted, see updates)
(603)271-2735, bette.lasky@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2008
59% in 2006 (*previous Democrat)
59% in 2008
formerly NH Rep (26), voted Yea in 2007
age: 62
BA UMass
2 children
believes in "civil rights for all"
Yes in committee vote
Margaret Hassan (D-23), Majority Leader (*promoted, see updates)
(603)271-2106, maggie.hassan@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2004
60% in 2006
57% in 2008
age: 51
religion: UCC
BA Brown, JD Northeastern
attorney
2 children
spoke in favor at hearing
Martha Fuller Clark (D-24), President Pro Tem
(603)271-4152, martha.fullerclark@leg.state.nh.us
first elect 2004
59% in 2006
62% in 2008
age: 67
religion: Unitarian
MA Boston U.
career legislator
3 children
gay son
spoke in favor at hearing
MODERATE (3)
Sylvia Larsen (D-15), Senate President
(603)271-2111, sylvia.larsen@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 1994
71% in 2006
67% in 2008
age: 60
religion: Congregational (UCC)
BA UW-Madison
2 children
Amanda Merrill (D-21)
(603)271-7803, amanda.merrill@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2008
unopposed in 2006 (*previous Democrat)
67% in 2008
age: 58
BA UNH, Phd Dartmouth
psychology professor
2 children
Lou D'Allesandro (D-20)
(603)271-2600, dalas@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 1998
62% in 2006
66% in 2008
age: 71
religion: Catholic
BA UNH, MA River Col.
3 children, 8 grandchildren
in 2004: "laws about sexual preference strike at the heart
of the state's long-standing emphasis on individual privacy
and personal independence"
WEAK/UNKNOWN (3)
Betsi DeVries (D-18)
(603)271-6933, betsi.devries@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
56% in 2006
54% in 2008
retired firefighter
2 children, 1 grandchild
Kathleen Sgambati (D-04), Deputy Majority Leader
(603)271-2641, kathleen.sgambati@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
52% in 2006
54% in 2008
religion: Catholic
career legislator
2 children
Peggy Gilmour (D-12)
(603)271-3569, peggy.gilmour@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2008
58% in 2006 (*previous Democrat)
47% in 2008
age: 67
religion: Protestant
RN, BS, MS Boston U.
nursing background
small business owner (hospice care)
2 children, 2 grandchildren
NO (1)
Deborah Reynolds (D-02), Majority Whip, Judiciary Chair (*demoted, see updates)
(603)271-3042, deb.reynolds@leg.state.nh.us
first elected 2006
55% in 2006
58% in 2008
BA Georgetown, JD Franklin Pierce
attorney
2 children
"We'll certainly give the bill a fair hearing, and we'll
see where it take us"
No in committee vote
***** UPDATE *****
As jpmassar points out in the comments, Deborah Reynolds voted against the bill in committee yesterday. I had rated her as WEAK/UNKNOWN. My apologies for the inaccuracy - most of this diary was written prior to that vote. The other two Democrats on the committee - Matthew Houde and Bette Lasky - voted in favor. I had rated them STRONG and MODERATE respectively.
***** UPDATE 2 *****
As Scott in NJ points out in the comments, Jacalyn Cilley spoke in favor of the bill at the hearing. I had rated her as WEAK/UNKNOWN. Also speaking in favor were Maggie Hassan and Martha Fuller Clark whom I had rated MODERATE and STRONG respectively.
(end of diary)