Last December The White House press corps was laughing about Igor Panarin's prediction of secession in the United States by 2010.
For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
Panarin is not some fringe nut case, but a respected former KGB analyst and dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. In light of recent developments, maybe it's time to re-evaluate the prediction. More below the fold.
UPDATE 5/8/09:
Last night Countdown ran a segment on secession.
Embedded video below.
In recent weeks there has been action in several states that have made me wonder if Mr. Panarin might be on to something. Ben Smith's Blog titled Red states seek 'sovereignty' points out recent developments.
Oklahoma's Legislature this week overrode Gov. Brad Henry's veto to pass a "sovereignty" resolution, and similar moves are afoot in Georgia and South Carolina.
On April 1, the Georgia Senate passed the following resolution
all powers previously delegated to the United States of America by the Constitution for the United States shall revert to the several States individually. Any future government of the United States of America shall require ratification of three quarters of the States seeking to form a government of the United States of America and shall not be binding upon any State not seeking to form such a government.
And who can forget the great state of Texas and Gov. Perry acting like The Mad Hatter at a Tea Party declaring to a reporter
Texas is a unique place. When we came into the union in 1845, one of the issues was that we would be able to leave if we decided to do that," Perry said. "My hope is that America and Washington in particular pays attention. We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, who knows what may come of that
And let's not forget everyone's favorite nut bag Glenn Beck, who endorses this treason wholeheartedly:
If you Google "Texas secession Obama" you'll get a surprising result. Some of this talk predates Obama's election. It's clear that there exists a "my way or highway" attitude from the extreme right who has had their way for 8 years and now are crying like spoiled children that have been told they must share their toys and play nice with the rest of us. It's the "God, Gays & Guns" crowd, who are losing the support of the middle and are becoming increasingly marginalized into a regional movement.
Then there is our favorite Governor, Sarah Palin, and her husband Todd, a former member of the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party.
Over the years, Palin has actively courted the Alaska Independence Party, or AIP, an organization that supports Alaskan secession from the U.S. To be clear, we're not necessarily talking about friendly secession either: As the AIP's founder, Joe Vogler, told an interviewer in 1991: "The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government. ... And I won't be buried under their damn flag."
Combine this attitude with the distorted world view of the Wasilla Assembly of God and you start seeing the harmonic convergence of wackness.
In his sermons, Pastor Kalnins has also expressed beliefs that, while not directly political, lie outside of mainstream Christian thought.
He preaches repeatedly about the "end times" or "last days," an apocalyptic prophesy held by a small but vocal group of Christian leaders. During his appearance with Palin in June, he declared, "I believe Alaska is one of the refuge states in the last days, and hundreds of thousands of people are going to come to the state to seek refuge and the church has to be ready to minister to them."
So what has this to do with Prof. Panarin's forecast? Some of it sounds like it's been ripped from the headlines listed above.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
It should be noted that Prof. Panarin has been predicting this for over a decade. In some sense it's become his "white whale". However, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
I must admit that I got a few chuckles last December when I first heard about Panarin's prediction. I'm not laughing anymore.
Update 5/8/09
Last night Countdown ran a segment on secession