Anthony Man of Broward Politics interviewed various statewide political figures to discuss Charlie Crist’s jump to the US Senate race. Justin Sayfie’s comments were very interesting.
CROSS POSTED FROM FLAPOLITICS.COM
He makes the claim that Crist would win a Republican primary against the more conservative Marco Rubio because in the Florida Republican presidential primary the moderate John McCain beat the conservative Mitt Romney and in the last gubernatorial primary in 2006 the moderate Charlie Crist beat the conservative Tom Gallagher.
Both of these claims are nothing more than spin by a very articulate political operative. Let’s look at the facts.
I’ve already addressed the issue of Crist and Gallagher. Crist did not win by running as a
moderate. He won by painting Gallagher as an opportunist and a fake conservative.
Here’s a quote from his campaign material:
"You're Tom Gallagher and you've got problems. You've run for governor three times: liberal, prochoice, antigun, and so protax you supported the largest tax increase in state history," says the ad's narrator. "Taxing Tom Gallagher. Desperate, you try to flip-flop, confessing that each time you run, you're a different person. But you're still Taxing Tom Gallagher, no conservative, still loves higher taxes, even opposing Charlie Crist's property tax cuts. Charlie Crist: endorsed by the NRA, a positive, prolife Ronald Reagan Republican we trust."
And as for the presidential primary, let’s look at the numbers:
Guliani – 14.7%
Huckabee – 13.5%
McCain – 36.0%
Paul – 3.2%
Romney – 31.0%
Thompson – 1.2%
The Republican voters who chose Huckabee and Thompson sure aren’t going to pick the moderate over the conservative. The other thing to remember is that a lot of the support McCain got was from military voters. He did very well in Congressional District 1 in the panhandle which contains Eglin Air Force Base. Can Crist draw the same support?
Once Jeb Bush and the money he can pull down and Rush Limbaugh and the voters he can motivate get into the fray and the specter of Specter’s party flip get put on the table along with Crist’s vaunted bi-partisanship, things are going to get very interesting.
Folks, a lot can happen between now and August 2010. It’s very possible that when Crist makes his announcement to run for the US Senate he could very well be ending his storied political career.
Stranger things have happened. In May of 2007 all the polls predicted that the 2008 presidential race would be between Clinton and Guliani.
UPDATE: Kos just posted on this issue.