This cycle of governors races is going to be the most important of the decade. The reason is that 2010 is the last election before Congressional redistricting and governors hold a veto over redistricting plans that are passed by the state legislature. In 2001, Democrats held a paltry 19 governorships out of 50 and got screwed badly in the 2001 redistricting. Governorships are also a launching pad to the Presidency in many cases. Had Democrats not had such a horrible year in 1994, there is a good chance that we would have never seen a President George W. Bush.
Lets start with the 2009 races, both held by Democrats.
New Jersey(Corzine, D): This is a race that is really bothering me and we should have no excuse to lose. It is a strong blue state, yet governor Corzine trails Bush US Attorney Chris Christie by a 45%-38% margin. There is a primary coming up in early June and I would advise anybody from New Jersey reading this to go and vote for Steve Lonegan(who is unelectable) in the open Republican primary.
Virginia(Open): Governor and DNC chair Tim Kaine is forced to vacate this office because of term limits. Democrats have a three way primary, while Republicans have a nominee already in Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Kaine was given the DNC chairmanship in order to hold this governorship and we will need to if we also lose New Jersey, since the last time Democrats dropped both offices was 1993, the year before we were wiped out in 1994.
2010 races held by Democrats:
Kansas(Open): Gov. and now HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebilius is term limited out of office. In this strong Republican state, Republicans have swarms of strong candidates, while Democrats have no one. Count this as a Republican pickup.
Michigan(Open): Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term limited out of office and that will set up a competitive contest in this blue leaning state. Republicans have several statewide candidates they can run, while Democrats have Lt. Gov. John Cherry as well as some state legislators. Its a pure tossup.
New York(Patterson, D): If David Paterson is the Democratic nominee in this state, we are all screwed. We need Cuomo in this race and fast to hold this crucial governorship. Republican pickup if Paterson is the nominee, but easy Dem hold if Cuomo is.
Oklahoma(Open): Gov. Brad Henry is term limited in this very Republican state. Democrats have many statewide officials running, but Republicans have a clear edge in this increasingly deep red state. Another Republican pickup.
Pennsylvania(Open): Ed Rendell is term limited in this Democratic leaning state. This is a state that changes party control of the governorship every eight years like clockwork, but the state is getting increasingly bluer and both parties have some strong candidates. Pure tossup.
Tennessee(Open): Phil Bredeseen is term limited in this increasingly blood red state. Democrats have few candidates, while Republicans have some solid ones. Lean Republican pickup.
Wisconsin(Doyle, D): Governor Doyle is running for his third term in this blue leaning state. Although his popularity is not great, he is polling ahead of many potential Republican rivals. Lean Dem hold.
***Wyoming(Freudenthal or Open): This race depends on whether the term limits law gets overturned. If Freudenthal runs again, he is likely safe. If he has to step down, this is a certain Republican pickup.
Republican held races:
Arizona(Brewer, R): Recently appointed Jan Brewer is having a very tough time governing in Arizona. If a strong candidate like Terry Goddard or Mayor Gordon runs against her, we can pick this one up. Pure tossup for now.
California(Open): Arnold Schwarzanegger must step down due to term limits. Democrats should be able to pick this one up with Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown. Lean Democratic pickup.
Florida(Open): A must win race for Democrats. Charlie Crist left this race open in order to run for the Senate and Democrats have a strong candidate in CFO Alex Sink. Republicans have AG Bill McCollum. Pure tossup.
Hawaii(Open): Linda Lingle must step down due to term limits. Any Democrat must be favored in a state that Obama got 73% of the vote in. Likely Democratic pickup.
Nevada(Gibbons): Jim Gibbons is heavily unpopular in this increasingly blue state. Its a pure tossup.
Rhode Island(Open): Gov. Carcieri must step down due to term limits in this heavily Democratic state. If Lincoln Chaffee runs as an independent, he wins. Leans independent pickup. If not Chaffee, Likely Dem pickup.
Overall, there should not be too much of a net change in governorships in the 2008-2009 cycle. The likely result is a Republican gain of 1 or 2 seats.