I recognize that some of this analysis may seem premature at this stage of the game, more than three years out from the next election, but I don't think it's ever too early to start thinking about our next moves. The 2010 Census will change the way electoral college votes are divided up amongst the states, and it's worth considering how this will fit into our electoral strategy.
On the face of it, the 2010 Census will not bring good news for the Democratic Party. A number of reliably blue states including California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, all stand to lose at least one vote, as do states that lean Democratic like Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
And that population is heading toward the South: Red states like Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas (especially Texas!) all stand to gain votes. But there are hidden gems in these changing demographics for the Dems. Let's take a closer look.
I created this map using the projected electoral college distribution from the Wikipedia article "United States presidential election, 2012", as well as 2008 election data.
To flip a dark state in 2012 would be as miraculous as was our 2008 victory in Indiana (a whopping 21 point turnaround from 2004), and to flip a medium colored state would be akin to our flipping North Carolina (a 12 point turnaround). None of these states are likely to be in play unless one party has a really good year.
Now of course the actual outcome of the election is going to be heavily reliant on what Obama does, how it is perceived, who he is running against, whatever unforeseen events occur, etc., and the election is years away, so all this is to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but...
I believe we have reason to be optimistic (of course cautiously so until the deed is done). The Republican base is now embarrassingly small, with only 33 solidly red electoral votes. It seems as if that population moving from the blue northern states to the south is tending to bring their Democratic votes with them. We saw surprisingly close margins in South Carolina and Georgia, and managed to flip growing Florida and North Carolina into our column. Even Texas is looking like it might be viable at least by 2016 with the growing Hispanic population there.
Speaking of growing Hispanic populations, Nevada and New Mexico seem to be more or less ours now, thanks largely to impressive Democratic voter registration efforts in both states among Latinos. Nevada and New Mexico voted for Obama over McCain by 12 and 15 points, respectively, outdoing even Pennsylvania and Minnesota. In between, Arizona only voted for its own senator by 8 points; we'd be foolish not to make a play for it.
Those light states are where I think the real battle is likely to be fought in 2012. If we have a good night, we could potentially sweep the entire Eastern Seaboard, Upper Midwest, and Mountain West. But even on a mediocre night, we would have the upper hand. On this map, Obama would only be 18 electoral votes away from re-election if he carried all the dark and medium blue states. His rival would need 147 electoral votes in addition to the dark and medium red states.
Make of it what you will, or ignore it completely if you think it's rubbish. Just remember: huuuuge grains of salt here, folks. And this is my first diary, so be gentle. :)