The GOP has a problem. Their wingnutty base makes them anathema to the rest of the country. For every vote the GOP picks up on the far right, by promoting torture and opposing gay marriage, they lose a vote from the center. Republicans are trapped in a cruel electoral calculus, a variant of Newton's Third Law applied to political forces; each and every reactionary impulse produces an equal and opposite shift of momentum to the Democrats.
Is there any solution? Are Republicans consigned to permanent minority status on the fringe of an increasingly tolerant electorate?
Most likely, the GOP is doomed. Republican denial is essentially limitless. Yet I think the Republicans do have a way out, a clear path to becoming once again a truly national party.
Paradoxically, that path lay through Secession.
Right off the bat, let me make clear that I'm not talking about a Republican majority in a New Confederate States of America, or whatever the succeeding elements might chose to call themselves. Crazy as some of those Blood Red states can be, it's unlikely even they could assemble the popular majorities, let alone the super majorities, that would likely be required for directing state legislatures to petition Congress for an Constitutional Amendment legalizing Secession. Thus, I regard Secession itself as highly unlikely. But the issue still has the potential to either destroy or save the Republican Party.
First, things will have to get worse before they get better. Having opened the Pandora's Box of Secession, the Republicans are going to have a hard time putting out the political fires they've unleashed. Till now, Republicans have owned the issue of patriotism. I'm not sure exactly how the GOP managed to accomplish this blatant act of political libel, but it's hard to argue that their protracted disinformation campaign has been anything but hugely successful. Ever since the "trial" of Robert Oppenheimer, being a Democrat has been nearly synonymous with treason. The claim of superior patriotism is a basic element of GOP mythology, but the issue of Secession threatens to shatter that myth beyond all possible resurrection.
You can't claim to love your country if at the same time you're threatening to tear your country apart. No more that someone can claim to be committed to a marriage while suing for divorce. Perhaps Secessionists might be better off in their own country. The rest of us might be far better off without them. But Secessionists are not Patriots. Secession is the antithesis of patriotism.
I predict that in the next election, Democrats will hang the issue of disloyalty around the necks of the GOP, and Republicans across the board will squirm at the end of the twisted Rope of Secession. Are Republicans going to finally admit that they just don't like America all that much? Or will they firmly and unreservedly disavow Secession?
I predict the latter. After much gasping and choking, the Republicans will ultimately conclude that Secessionists have no place in a national party. Traitors have no proper role in our national debate. Personally, I'm willing to consider the views of anyone as long as we can agree on a few basic assumptions, one of which is that we will continue to hold free and fair elections and that the losers will respect the outcome. Those who reject that core assumption are entitled to their opinion, but they must and will be marginalized. We are under no obligation to attach any significance to the political opinions of those whose aim is the destruction of the United States.
Recent polls suggest that as many as half of the Republicans in some regions favor Secession, whereas the corresponding percentage for Democrats is far less. If push came to shove, I doubt such a high percentage of Republicans would actually want to dissolve the United States but the underlying sentiment is nonetheless alarming. I suspect that come the next election, all Republican candidates, including the Governor of Texas and the wife of the First Man of Alaska, are going to have to come clean on this issue. Either one must disavow, now and forever, even the theoretical possibility of Secession, or one must accept disqualification for national office.
Remarkably, I think the issue of Secession might actually save the Republican party, almost in spite of itself. If the GOP is ever going to regain national relevance, they will have to deal with their lunatic fringe and its disproportionate and destructive influence on the Republican platform. The one issue on which moderate Republicans can assert themselves is for an absolute disavowal of Secession and Secessionists. True, by jettisoning its Secessionist element, the GOP will severe its bonds with a large portion of its base, but in doing so the Republican party would finally be able to move back toward the political center and, one day, perhaps even a national majority. Moreover, the Secessionists will still be crazy and they'll still probably vote Republican, to the extent they vote at all. While it is politically impossible right now for Republican moderates to alter the party's hard line positions on hot button social issues such as Women's Reproductive Rights and Gay Marriage, the issue of Patriotism vs. Treason is different. A majority of the Republican leadership can presumably agree that loyalty to the United States is non-negotiable. To survive as a national party, the GOP will have to draw a line in the sand. You can't be a Secessionist call yourself a Republican.
Ironically, the same issue that gave birth to the Republican party (and the election of Abraham Lincoln) might also be its salvation.